Scorpion_runner wrote:
2:02 is becoming damn near impossible to break, because the men have hit a peak. Yeah, they are a boat load of runners running sub 2:05 now, but only 2 can run sub 2:04, and that is kipsang and Kipchoge. Kimetto and Bekele are done.
And Kipsang was the only one to run sub 2:04 last year ( tokyo). He will be running Tokyo again this year, with no real competition ( btw: Tokyo is to kipsang what new york is to Mary....they get a boat load of money to run them. They have to. Kipsang passes up London and Mary passes up chicago or berlin).
Kipsang might take down the record. However, he will have two shots at it: Tokyo and Berlin. Kipchoge might go for it in Berlin. Other than that, there are no other runners capable of running sub 2:04 right now. Again, do not say Bekele
6 guys just ran 2:04:06-2:04:15 in Dubai a week ago and you don't think any of those runners are capable for running sub 2:04? The race even got tactical at the end because everyone had their eyes on the 200k cash prize. Throw a sub 2:04 bonus in that race and you would have easily had 6 guys under 2:04.
I wouldn't say Bekele is "done". He has the ability to break it, it's just a matter of trial and a lot of error. I mean, everyone thought he was done before Berlin 2016 and he went out and ran the 2nd fastest legal marathon all time, 2:03:03.
There's just tons of 2:03-2:04 guys, and honestly, it's only a matter of time until someone breaks 2:03, maybe this year. The problem is prize money. You can't spend so much on appearance fees and placing fees that you have no money for time bonuses, but at the same time, you still have to offer enough in appearance fees for people to show up. And then you still have to pay rabbits who are willing to go 30k at 2:03 pace just as much as the racers or else there going to want to be paid to race somewhere else. Money is the difference.