Mary Keitany to use MALE pacemakers at London Marathon! Down goes WR?!

I think Keitany has a reasonable chance, but a lot of things have to line up on the day in order that it happens. Keitany biggest strength is the ability to set her own pace and run alone. Tirunesh Dibaba has yet to develop this trait as she has historically been a sit and kick type runner within her track events ( the sole exception was her 5000m world record in Oslo )

However Keitany will start to deteriorate soon as she is old, whereas Tirunesh is still a few years away from her peak. I think it could be Dibaba who breaks the record, but not for at least 12-18 months.

The athlete with the most potential to break the marathon WR is Ayana. Like Keitany she has an ability to set her own pace and run alone and has tremendous mental strength. I don't think Jepkosgei will get near it though as she is too inconsistent.

NZ Runner wrote:

. Like Keitany she has an ability to set her own pace and run alone and has tremendous mental strength.

tremendous mental strength? if that were the case, she would have won her doubles...She failed both times. I personally believe she is not mentally strong enough.

she could just be a tedese....just dominant at one event .That is who she reminds me of. Tedese did most of his damage at 10000m and half marathon. But didn't have the mental strength or speed to dominate 5000m or at the marathon level.

Scorpion_runner wrote:

NZ Runner wrote:

. Like Keitany she has an ability to set her own pace and run alone and has tremendous mental strength.

tremendous mental strength? if that were the case, she would have won her doubles...She failed both times. I personally believe she is not mentally strong enough.

she could just be a tedese....just dominant at one event .That is who she reminds me of. Tedese did most of his damage at 10000m and half marathon. But didn't have the mental strength or speed to dominate 5000m or at the marathon level.

Blah blah blah. You talk too much.

Blah blah blah blah wrote:

Scorpion_runner wrote:

tremendous mental strength? if that were the case, she would have won her doubles...She failed both times. I personally believe she is not mentally strong enough.

she could just be a tedese....just dominant at one event .That is who she reminds me of. Tedese did most of his damage at 10000m and half marathon. But didn't have the mental strength or speed to dominate 5000m or at the marathon level.

Blah blah blah. You talk too much.

there is no talking here, just typing, so you are incorrect. No sound has been uttered.

Avocado's Number wrote:

I agree.

By the way, isn't IAAF going to wipe Paula's male-assisted record off the books anyway? (I think that IAAF is wrong to erase all records before whatever date has been chosen, but this particular record was, in my view, arranged for and set under questionable circumstances and justified by a certain amount of revisionist history, so I see a certain symmetry in IAAF's decision to rewrite Paula's record out of existence, regardless of whether Keitany or any other woman runs a faster time with male pacers.)

It doesn't really matter if they do. Perceived legitimacy is all that matters, and you can't just tell people to stop respecting a performance that hasn't itself changed. It's not like discovering after the fact that someone cheated. The conditions of her attempt were all known, and nonetheless the mark was universally acclaimed as perhaps the greatest female achievement in athletics ever. The IAAF can't change that. Totally different than something like breaking 2, which was treated as a stunt ex ante.

It's sort of the Anastasoff rule of athletics.

Scorpion_runner wrote:

NZ Runner wrote:

. Like Keitany she has an ability to set her own pace and run alone and has tremendous mental strength.

tremendous mental strength? if that were the case, she would have won her doubles...She failed both times. I personally believe she is not mentally strong enough.

she could just be a tedese....just dominant at one event .That is who she reminds me of. Tedese did most of his damage at 10000m and half marathon. But didn't have the mental strength or speed to dominate 5000m or at the marathon level.

Sure she struggles to double at the 5k in WC events, but she kills every 5k stand alone event she runs outside of championships. You could argue she lacks the ability to recover from a race to be competitive again within a week, but this won't be an issue in a stand alone marathon.

And yes I do believe she has tremendous mental strength to run alone for two thirds of her 10k races At sub 3min/km pace.

First, and most importantly, I appreciate your assumption -- a correct one, I'm happy to say -- that I got your reference to Anastasoff without having to look it up. It's been a long time since I've cited or discussed it, but it addressed a persistent issue that I was deeply involved with, in cases as well as policy debates. (There was even an ABA publication that quoted me on the issue.) Those were fun times, pitting heavyweights like the late Richard Arnold and the effectively-late Alex Kozinski against one another, but those debates seemed to die out after John Roberts became Chief Justice and the Federal Rules of Appellate Procedure were revised to allow litigants to cite anything and allow circuit courts to decide what to do about it.

But I'm not sure that I agree entirely that perceived legitimacy -- or illegitimacy -- can't be changed by subsequent revisions to the rules or, as in this case, a governing body's withdrawal of its imprimatur, especially where its more-or-less unstated reason is that old world records are presumptively the result of doping. (I, by the way, don't believe that Paula engaged in intentional doping, although I believe that she was a pretty effective lobbyist for her own preferences about where lines should get drawn.) Sure, Brits will still say that Paula is the true record holder, but they also still believe that Roger Bannister was the first legitimate sub-four miler, while everyone else knows that it was John Landy.

NZ Runner wrote:

Keitany biggest strength is the ability to set her own pace and run alone. .

Is that why she needs male pacers to break the record?

What What What??? wrote:

NZ Runner wrote:

Keitany biggest strength is the ability to set her own pace and run alone. .

Is that why she needs male pacers to break the record?

Of course, having mental strength to run independently and ahead of the pack doesn't mean that she cannot benefit further from having a male pacer to aim at. It doesn't matter what type of runner you are, everyone who runs at any level can get dragged along to a PR or WR by having a vastly superior pacer assigned to them.

REGISTERED registered wrote:

I like it! Nothing wrong with chicks and dudes running together.

Exactly: make everyone run together and pay people according to where they place not according to age or sex.

Scorpion_runner wrote:

Only person that can beat mary is mary, and of course father time.

And, of course, Shalane Flanagan.

Dopey dopey dope dope wrote:

Phantasy Star wrote:

Whatever happens, this record - as well as Radcliffe's - are doped to the dorsals. Totally fraudulent.

Clean world record is Mizuki Noguchi's 2:19:12.

Mizuki = doped

LOL

Use a MALE pacer like the women did last night in Dubai. Watch the women’s finish, I thought the pacer was going to break the tape for Dereje.

Are you high? Dibaba finished less than a minute behind Keitany in a word record race after stopping to throw-up at least once (maybe even more). Also, it was only her second marathon ever. She was realing Mary in so fast, too. At one point, around 30K, the gap was over two minutes! Plus, you can’t use that Rak Half Marathon as much evidence. You have no idea if they even cut Tiru’s mileage for that race. It was a mere tune-up. Mary is always very interested in fast half marathons.

Dibaba FTW in London. She is overall a better athlete. She knows what Mary is going to do, and she will be in shape to beat her.

Is it really a WR if one BroJo can't brag about it and the other can't live vicariously through the first BroJo?

Mary used to own the world record at half marathon, and can still blaze lights out at that pace. You need to go watch london again. Dibaba wanted no parts of going out fast with Mary, just like in the rak half marathon. I like Dibaba and she is going to do extremely well at the marathon level, but she is not the type to blaze from the beginning, never have, never will.

Mary goes out hard, fast and strong. Only way she loses is due to father time. But in prime shape? Dibaba cannot beat hear. Again, go watch last year's rak half marathon race, and go watch london. Mary destroyed Dibaba in the first half of each race.

Mary's low center of gravity allows her to have an insane cadence, and couple that with mental toughness, power, and experience just puts her on another level. former half marathon record holder, current all women's marathon record holder, and soon to be mixed marathon record holder. No other woman in the world is messing with that. There will be blood in london.

Blood from her period you mean.

And dibaba solo a 2:18 without pacers in Chicago, also going out very fast. (2:16 pace for first half if I am not wrong). So what you say about dibaba is wrong.

There will be blood wrote:

Blood from her period you mean.

And dibaba solo a 2:18 without pacers in Chicago, also going out very fast. (2:16 pace for first half if I am not wrong). So what you say about dibaba is wrong.

Yeah, the guy never changes his opinion, even if you give splits and concrete data. Don't even bother debating him. Apparently opening up at 2:16 pace for the first half without a single pacemaker to assist you isn't fast enough for him to perhaps consider that Dibaba does indeed race the first half. But he is right that she has never opened up the first 10k at 2:11 pace like the smart and cunning Mary Keitany-- everyone knows the person who sprints the first 10k of the marathon always wins!

There will be blood wrote:

Blood from her period you mean.

And dibaba solo a 2:18 without pacers in Chicago, also going out very fast. (2:16 pace for first half if I am not wrong). So what you say about dibaba is wrong.

Again, go watch dibaba's race against ayana at 10000m in rio. Go watch her in the RAK half marathon race. Hell, go watch all of her half marathon races, including the half marathon against Vivian. Dibaba does not go out fast and hard in her races. Even at 5000m she was more of a sit and kick runner. She broke the 5000m record with an insane negative split.

So , yeah, the chicago marathon was a great race for her, but that is not her style or strategy to blaze out hard in the beginning, or run from beginning to end hard.

For instance, like i stated, dibaba broke the world record at 5000m. But , after that , she does not have another fast time in the top ten of fast 5000m times. I think ayana has like what 3 or 4 of them in the top 10? Her next fastest time is 14:23, in 16th place. Her sister has 2 top ten times, and Defar has 2 top ten times. And she never challenged the 10000m record or half marathon record.

Dibaba isn't really built to blaze all out. She is a traditional sit and kicker, and is more of a second half runner.

I wish her well, but when it comes to speed from beginning to end, she is not in Mary's lane ....Those are just facts.