A closer look at EPO-era performances

zxcvxcv wrote:

First of all, this is a great list and hugely difficult to have produced, so thank you!

Second, the pre-1990 list will not be a clean comparison with the doped 1990s and beyond.

Blood doping was a big factor in top distance performances in the 1970s and 1980s, with steroids being a factor as well for Aouita's performances in that top 5 of the 1500m, 3000m, and 5000m.

Moreover, the list will not prove that athletes used EPO in the 1990s. We know that some of them did use it, because some of the best tested positive for EPO, like Boulami and Mourhit, or were caught red-handed, like Szabo. But we do not know for sure that El G, Daniel Komen, or Bekele and Geb, among the most likely candidates, were using.

The fact that the improvements are more dramatic at the longer distances certainly suggests that it was EPO, because the aerobic component increases in those distances over the 800m, 1500m, and even 3000m.

This is not a study wrote:

This is a very long way of saying lots of people have been caught using EPO - some improved dramatically others did not. There are so many variables that you cannot possibly account for with a limited data set.

You can also look at Finnish runners before and after the 70s. / early 80s? They stopped participating and probably stopped blood doping . But you can’t really prove much without a proper scientific study.

Why don’t we just look at a properly controlled medical study on the general effects of EPO. We can then conclude whether it should or should not be banned. Beyond that, everyone is speculating. For example, we know Ben Johnson ran his fastest on drugs. Does that mean no one similarly situated can run faster without drugs? No. Do we know if Bailey was clean? Maybe yes, maybe no. He could just be more talented than Johnson. But we can all gather that, if he did take PEDs, it probably would have helped.

Rocket Fuel Rick wrote:

Maybe you do need a different measure Gary. And "doping busts" are clear cut and allows for the analysis of progression trends, PBs, competition record & performance post-ban for those who returned to competition. For example, Ceplak had a big 3 second jump in one year before she set her sizzling 1:55 PB. And when she came back from her ban, she was crap never running anything near her fastest times and not even coming close to breaking 2 again. Another 800 female: Halima Hachlaf (1:58.27) cut ~6 freaking seconds in 2 yrs going from 2:04 to 1:58. ?. She was sanctioned for anomalies in her ABP - no proof of androgens. And Hachlaf has the rare distinction of having a family member banned for doping as her brother, Abdelkader, was banned in 04 (must run in the family ?).

So, show me where Ceplak & Hachlaf were using androgens? The record shows an EPO positive & anomalies on a passport, respectively. Where's the freaking roids with these girls Gary? When rocket fuel became available not every 800m female used androgens. And VO2max is a major component of the 800, so rocket fuel would fit right into that equation (geez...Imagine that). But it's probably a waste of time to keep digging up 800m females banned/sanctioned for EPO or hematological anomalies who showed rapid performance jumps when you will (and have in the past) chalk it off to BS like improved nutrition, yoga, box jumps, aerodynamic bun huggers and the like. ?

YMMV wrote:

If you want to trace modern doping back, I think that you land in Germany in the '30s. Methamphetamine was doled out literally like candy (housewives were sold chocolate-covered meth in order to increase energy for keeping house and baby-making).

" Blitzed" by Norman Ohler-

"...the (German) soldiers used Pervitin, a German product patented in 1937 that contains methamphetamine, which is known today as crystal meth.

A keen look at drug-taking in the Third Reich

It was freely available as a medicine until 1939. In Berlin, it became a drug of choice, like people drink coffee to boost their energy. People took loads of Pervitin, across the board. The company wanted Pervitin to rival Coca Cola. So people took it, it worked and they were euphoric - a mood that matched the general mood before the war."

The Wehrmacht were doled out 35 million meth pills for a single operation, the invasion of France. That comes out to about 70 per man! "High Hitler!"

One of the most "incredible" records of all-time was the 1:46 run by Rudolph Harbig in 1939. That record stood for 16 years. He also had the 400 WR. The chance that these records were done without meth is nil, in my opinion.

3hr-marathoner wrote:

Thanks for doing this, BTW. It took a long time to read so I can only imagine how long it took to put together.

me1234568 wrote:

Thanks for putting this together. It was interesting to read.

From the evidence I've seen in this thread, I don't think we can attribute the changes you observed to EPO. I think the most we can conclude is that "East Africa has improved far more than the rest of the world since 1990." However, I don't think this evidence can help us draw any causal relationship.

One question for rekrunner - how did you get the data from all-athletics? Is there a way to download data, or did you have to scrape the site?

Alan Webbs Triceps wrote:

Is rekrunner now greater than Ventolin^2/Calculo for analysis?

Brojos, I demand you administer a PED test for both to see if rekrunner is microdosing his way to greater analyses.

Discus.

zxcvxcv wrote:

First of all, this is a great list and hugely difficult to have produced, so thank you!

Subway Surfers Addiction wrote:

Clarify again for me please (in case I missed it) how you categorize Mo Farah, East Africa or 5 Continents? Looks like East Africa.

This is not a study wrote:

This is a very long way of saying lots of people have been caught using EPO - some improved dramatically others did not. There are so many variables that you cannot possibly account for with a limited data set.

You can also look at Finnish runners before and after the 70s. / early 80s? They stopped participating and probably stopped blood doping . But you can’t really prove much without a proper scientific study.

Why don’t we just look at a properly controlled medical study on the general effects of EPO. We can then conclude whether it should or should not be banned. Beyond that, everyone is speculating. For example, we know Ben Johnson ran his fastest on drugs. Does that mean no one similarly situated can run faster without drugs? No. Do we know if Bailey was clean? Maybe yes, maybe no. He could just be more talented than Johnson. But we can all gather that, if he did take PEDs, it probably would have helped.

rekrunner wrote:

Men's data:

As you look at the numbers, keep in mind the relative size of the respective populations:

- East Africa (4-5.6%) (1990 and present)

- North Africa (2.9-3.1%)

- 5 continents (83-87%%)

The thing that strikes me as most anomalous, when you look at athletes from "5 continents" -- North and South America, Europe, Russia, Japan, China, Australia, New Zealand -- with a combined population 15-30 times as many people compared to East and North Africans (~3%) -- 1) why there were are so few examples making the cut-off, and 2) why their respective improvements were significantally smaller than their African competitors, during a period spanning decades, when 1) EPO was available worldwide, and largely undetectable, and 2) everybody (up to 57%) from everywhere cheats, and 3) there existed a "game-changing" undetectable drug that would have helped them close the gap, and "level" the playing field.

+----------

Mens 1500m:

Pre-1990 (Top 5): 3:29.84

Quantity:

Total: 26

East Africa: 16 61.5%

North Africa: 8 30.8%

5 Continents: 2 7.7%

Quality:

East Africa (Top 5): 3:27.52 1.1%

North Africa (Top 5): 3:27.98 0.9%

5 Continents (Top 2): 3:29.30 0.3%

(Best) El G: 3:26.00 1.8%

(Best Spaniard) Fermin Cacho: 3:28.95 0.4%

OBSERVATIONS:

o The best 5 East and North Africans both improved on average by around 1%, with El G at 1.8%

o Only two athletes from the rest of the world improved, by about 1/3rd, at 0.3%: Fermin Cacho (0.4%) and Nick Willis (0.2%)

+----------

Mens 3000m:

Pre-1990 (Top 5): 7:32.54

Quantity:

Total: 70 100.0%

East Africa: 49 70.0%

North Africa: 12 17.1%

5 Continents: 9 12.9%

Quality:

East Africa (Top 5): 7:25.20 1.6%

North Africa (Top 5): 7:25.75 1.5%

5 Continents (Top 5): 7:30.39 0.5%

(Best) Daniel Komen 7:20.67 2.6%

(Best Spaniard) Isaac Viciosa 7:29.34 0.7%

OBSERVATIONS:

o The best 5 East and North Africans both improved by around 1.5%

o The best of the rest of the world improved by 1/3rd, at 0.5%, with the best Spaniard at 0.7%

o 3 Spaniards made the cut-off

+----------

Mens 3000m Steeplechase:

Pre-1990 (Top 5): 8:05.98

Quantity:

Total: 32 100.0%

East Africa: 25 78.1%

North Africa: 5 15.6%

5 Continents: 2 6.3%

Quality:

East Africa (Top 5): 7:54.61 2.3%

North Africa (Top 5): 8:00.57 1.1%

5 Continents (Top 2): 8:02.70 0.7%

(Best) Brahim Boulami: 7:53.17 2.6%

(Best non-African) Evan Jager: 8:00.45 1.1%

OBSERVATIONS:

o French athletes are Algerian descent

o Almost purely dominated by Kenya, with no Ethiopians

o East Africans improved nearly the double of North Africans, and the triple of the rest of the world

o Spain was a non-factor

o Only two athletes from the rest of the world improved: Evan Jager (1.1%) and Simon Vroemen (0.2%)

+----------

Mens 5000m:

Pre-1990 (Top 5): 13:02.08

Quantity:

Total: 112 100.0%

East Africa: 91 81.3%

North Africa: 13 11.6%

5 Continents: 8 7.1%

Quality:

East Africa (Top 5): 12:41.96 2.6%

North Africa (Top 5): 12:50.06 1.5%

5 Continents (Top 5): 12:56.09 0.8%

(Best) Bekele: 12:37.35 3.2%

(Best non-African) Baumann: 12:54.70 0.9%

OBSERVATIONS:

o Would expect EPO helps 5000m

o East Africans improved almost the double of North Africans, and the triple of the rest of the world

o Spain was not a factor, except Ethiopian Bezabeh

o Baumann would be 8th North African and 39th East African

+----------

Mens 10000m:

Pre-1990 (Top 5): 27:14.77

Quantity:

Total: 111 100.0%

East Africa: 101 91.0%

North Africa: 5 4.5%

5 Continents: 5 4.5%

Quality:

East Africa (Top 5): 26:25.78 3.0%

North Africa (Top 5): 26:59.98 0.9%

5 Continents (Top 5): 27:03.68 0.7%

(Best) Bekele: 26:17.53 3.5%

(Best non-African) Rupp: 26:44.36 1.9%

(Best Spaniard) Fabián Roncero: 27:14.44 0.0%

OBSERVATIONS:

o Only 4 non-East Africans have run sub-27:00 (two after 2010)

o 54 (93.1%) East Africans have run sub-27:00

o Next 53? 47 East African, 3 North African, and 3 from the rest of World

o Only 10 non-East Africans total

o Spain is almost completely non-factor

+----------

Marathon:

Pre-1990 (Top 5): 2:07:11

Quantity:

Total: 201 100.0%

East Africa: 183 91.0%

North Africa: 6 3.0%

5 Continents: 12 6.0%

Quality:

East Africa (Top 5): 2:03:06 3.2%

North Africa (Top 5): 2:06:02 0.9%

5 Continents (Top 5): 2:06:21 0.7%

Kimetto: 2:02:57 3.3%

Ryan Hall (Boston): 2:04:58 1.7%

Jaouad Gharib: 2:05:27 1.4%

Ronaldo de Costa: 2:06:05 0.9%

Julio Rey: 2:06:52 0.3%

OBSERVATIONS:

o East Africans improved more than the triple of both North Africans, and the rest of the world

o No "top" marathons made the cutoff between 1988 and 1995

o 100 quality performances up to Geb's first world record (Sep. 2007)

o 447 quality performances after (Sep. 2007)

o JPN (3)and RSA (3)

o Only 1 Spaniard, Julio Rey

+----------

GENERAL OBSERVATIONS for the men:

o Most events have East Africans at 70-90%, improving by 3%

o Where was the rest of the world during the decades of the EPO era? Some 5-10% of "5 continents" improved, by about 1% or less

o Despite the large number of EPO busts, Spain doesn't appear to be a large asset for the "5 continents" or tough competitors against the Africans