Jordan Hasay American record tomorrow

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6 years ago 01/14/2018 9:56pm EST

re: Montesquieu

Montesquieu wrote:
New Jersey Better wrote:
several minutes? no one knows what will happen April 16th, but Hasay will not beat Huddle by "several minutes". if you'd care to make a wager, please let me know. i don't know either one personally and have nothing negative to say about either one of them as they are both tough as nails, but I'd lay down a fair amount that Hasay will not beat her by several minutes (I'm not comparing current pr's, but maybe you are).
I'm sorry: I'm not a betting man. However, besides Hasay, only five US women have run sub 2:25. That's not a long list. Suppose Huddle adds to that list, and even supplants Goucher and becomes the sixth fastest US woman. Suppose further that she runs 2:24, which would be terrific, and which would be a 4 minute PR. She could still be several minutes behind Hasay. When one woman's PR is 7 minutes slower than another's (and yes, I know, one ran on a much slower course, and the pace was radically different, etc.) it is scarcely controversial to indicate that one might beat the other by several (three or more) minutes.

Then you are too confident with your statement. Better to stay on the sidelines.

6 years ago 01/14/2018 10:46pm EST

re: New Jersey Better

New Jersey Better wrote:
Montesquieu wrote:
I'm sorry: I'm not a betting man. However, besides Hasay, only five US women have run sub 2:25. That's not a long list. Suppose Huddle adds to that list, and even supplants Goucher and becomes the sixth fastest US woman. Suppose further that she runs 2:24, which would be terrific, and which would be a 4 minute PR. She could still be several minutes behind Hasay. When one woman's PR is 7 minutes slower than another's (and yes, I know, one ran on a much slower course, and the pace was radically different, etc.) it is scarcely controversial to indicate that one might beat the other by several (three or more) minutes.
Then you are too confident with your statement. Better to stay on the sidelines.

Gee--I hadn't realized that one's willingness to bet on one's judgment was a sine qua non of making and reporting such a judgment.

6 years ago 01/15/2018 7:37pm EST

re: Montesquieu

Talk is cheap.

Put your money where your mouth is.

If you can't do the time, don't do the crime.

And so on.

PS Maybe I should go back look back at your predictions to see how well you've done. I bet your record is pretty dismal.

6 years ago 01/17/2018 9:12am EST

re: Montesquieu

Montesquieu wrote:
New Jersey Better wrote:
p.s. Huddle is building up for Boston as well. Please stop differentiating one's training or racing approach from the other, it looks silly as you are obviously undermining Huddle.
Actually, if you listen to their interviews and the recent training each has done and how long the buildup was for each, there is a significant difference. Look--one of them has proven she is a world class marathoner (sub 2:21) and the other has not (2:28). It would be great to see Huddle run sub 2:25, or even much faster than that, but Hasay is the second fastest US women's marathoner, and that must be recognized. And yes, Huddle is terrific in the 10,000 and half marathon, but those races are not indicative of how fast one can run a marathon. In pointing this out, it's not critical of Huddle at all. Indeed, on the track she is light years beyond anything Hasay has ever or will ever do.

I hope an American wins in Boston this year with the strong American field and a relatively weak international field. Even if a Kenyan or Ethiopian wins, it will be compelling race to watch the Americans.

Though Hasay has had a great year (and I hope continues to improve), I doubt she actually will ever run faster than 2:20. I see 2017 as her perfect year, she was amazing but her 5k, 10k and half times are meaningful. They indicate that she’s already performed at the top of her capability.

Huddle’s marathon capability is tougher to predict. I wished she had fully transitioned to marathon in 2017. She’s the more talented runner but she will not have many years left for marathons but enough time to make the 2020 team.

I’m looking forward to watching the race. Regardless of who wins, I’ll be glued to the tv. I don’t have a favourite (Flanagan, Hasay, Huddle, Linden) but I also can’t think of a reason why one will win over another until the race is over.

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