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    • oshay
      • sage canaday houston prediction 1/11/2018 3:05PM
      • oshay
      • i personally think ultras have chewed up his speed, and looking at his strava training over the past few months, i'm not convinced he has enough back for 2:18. great training cycle, but i'm not seeing the consistent speed at the level it needs to be.

        i predict 2:20.
    • @!
      • RE: sage canaday houston prediction 1/11/2018 4:50PM - in reply to oshay
      • @!
      • oshay wrote:

        i personally think ultras have chewed up his speed, and looking at his strava training over the past few months, i'm not convinced he has enough back for 2:18. great training cycle, but i'm not seeing the consistent speed at the level it needs to be.

        i predict 2:20.

        I also have seen his Strava and I agree, the long runs aren't fast enough to show 2:18-2:19. I'd go with 2:21. I'd guess he gets beat by 3-4 runners from the ADP Corral who start behind him.
    • rnrrnr
      • RE: sage canaday houston prediction 1/11/2018 4:57PM - in reply to @!
      • rnrrnr
      • He should have run that ridiculous downhill CIM ski slope course!
    • reed
      registered
      • RE: sage canaday houston prediction 1/11/2018 5:04PM - in reply to oshay
      • reed
        registered
      • I'll predict he's on pace for 2:18low for a while with a large pack but he slows before the half split and continues to slow through the finish. runs 2:20 and change
    • RejectJogger
      registered
    • my 1.5 cents
      • RE: sage canaday houston prediction 1/11/2018 5:20PM - in reply to oshay
      • my 1.5 cents
      • oshay wrote:

        i personally think ultras have chewed up his speed, and looking at his strava training over the past few months, i'm not convinced he has enough back for 2:18. great training cycle, but i'm not seeing the consistent speed at the level it needs to be.

        i predict 2:20.

        Idk if it's his speed that's been zapped, but more his mental state. His greatest gift is his biggest curse. He overanalyzes to the extreme based on his commentary in videos. As his channel and presence have increased, more so in last year's bigger races, it's like he stepped to the line, psycho analyzed every competitor's stride rate, vo2max and strava data and didn't run within himself. He had a couple solid performances early in the season, but past Lake Sonoma, he was flat. As a fan of the sport, I'd love nothing more than to see him OTQ. He's great for the sport and will be for a long time, even after his racing career.
    • Thoughts
      • RE: sage canaday houston prediction 1/11/2018 5:21PM - in reply to RejectJogger
      • Thoughts
      • RejectJogger wrote:

        If he runs on pure hate the last 800, 2:17:57.

        What do you know about pure hate?
    • epicTCK
      registered
      • RE: sage canaday houston prediction 1/11/2018 5:50PM - in reply to reed
      • epicTCK
        registered
      • reed wrote:

        I'll predict he's on pace for 2:18low for a while with a large pack but he slows before the half split and continues to slow through the finish. runs 2:20 and change

        ??? he's definitely not missing strength, rather, speed.

        he won't fade terribly, and certainly won't hit the wall.
        I don't think he'll make it, but he'll be close
    • FightFor15
      registered
      • RE: sage canaday houston prediction 1/11/2018 6:19PM - in reply to epicTCK
      • FightFor15
        registered
      • His workouts look good and he's been there before. I think he goes sub-2:19.
    • Zero zero zero
      • RE: sage canaday houston prediction 1/11/2018 6:24PM - in reply to oshay
      • Zero zero zero
      • This thread is worthless unti Sage joins in with a prediction.
    • RejectJogger
      registered
      • RE: sage canaday houston prediction 1/11/2018 6:32PM - in reply to Thoughts
      • RejectJogger
        registered
      • Thoughts wrote:

        RejectJogger wrote:

        If he runs on pure hate the last 800, 2:17:57.

        What do you know about pure hate?

        A lot more than you do.
    • drocha86
      registered
      • RE: sage canaday houston prediction 1/11/2018 6:33PM - in reply to oshay
      • drocha86
        registered
      • 2:21:xx, but he comes back strong and gets 2:18:xx at CIM
    • asdfadfasdfsadfasdfasd
      • RE: sage canaday houston prediction 1/11/2018 6:45PM - in reply to oshay
      • asdfadfasdfsadfasdfasd
      • DNS. I predict his flight will be canceled so he will have to stay home.
    • Remember the past
      • RE: sage canaday houston prediction 1/11/2018 7:24PM - in reply to oshay
      • Remember the past
      • I predict that he doesn't run as fast as he did when he was with the Hansons. Ever.