Er... wrote:
The kid has talent and enthusiasm. Let's hope he sticks with it and, as others have suggested, he continues to love the sport and benefit from his commitment to it.
But he'll run 14:45 as a senior high school? He'll "likely" be state champion? You wouldn't be surprised to see 13:45 from him in college? You have no basis to make any of these predictions. I hope the best for him and that he continues to love training and racing, but your predictions don't help him at all.
Do I not? I see what he ran last year (his first year) and what he placed in State Meet (in my state). I see who he was up against this Fall. Unlike you I know something about them. I see that he ran 9:36 LAST NIGHT. Having
I won't put my progression up here for you, because it's not about me, but I ran 14:48 in HS and it was not in any kind of well-organized Hoover-race. He is headed for times like mine in junior and senior year. One difference is that I ran from 6th grade on and trained seriously since November of freshman year. Sounds like he is about a year behind me in terms of training.
He has FIVE guys ahead of him who are coming back next year. That is almost unheard of in Michigan for an 11th placer. So those are long odds. One of those guys ran 4:23y indoors and 4:17m as a sophomore, his older brother was 14th last year at Footlocker and ran 8:55 as a JUNIOR. So that will be a tall order. But, that was his brother.
He is at 9:36 in December. I don't want to put undue pressure on him (and I already have), but State Meet was won last year indoors in a slower time than 9:36. So he has NINE more chances (two races indoor; two races outdoor; one in XC; 2 indoor; 2 outdoor). So does every guy who is a junior or BELOW in his Division in MI who is a 1600/3200 runner.
I know MI, and you don't.