Who wins the women's race? ~ NCAA D1 Cross country

No one has noticed/mentioned Alyssa Snyder of Utah State...??

Joey DeFeo.

Lock it up/

Expect Great Things from Allie O or Elle P.

MUGA

1. Karissa Schweizer (87) - Missouri 2370

2. Ednah Kurgat (138) - New Mexico 2318

3. Elinor Purrier (24) - New Hampshire 1800

4. Allie Ostrander (11) - Boise State 1592

5. Charlotte Taylor (6) - San Francisco 1466

6. Dani Jones (12) - Colorado 1364

7. Katie Rainsberger (3) - Oregon 1197

8. Alice Wright (2) - New Mexico 430

9. Weini Kelati - New Mexico 398

10. Grayson Murphy - Utah 379

11. Sharon Lokedi (1) - Kansas 262

12. Amy-Eloise Neale - Washington 221

13. Charlotte Prouse - New Mexico 182

14. Weronika Pyzik - San Francisco 176

15. Katherine Receveur - Indiana 155

16. Caroline Sang - Charlotte 149

17. Allie Buchalski - Furman 142

18. Nikki Hiltz - Arkansas 105

19. Bella Burda - Villanova 100

20. Paige Stoner - Syracuse 92

gonna be the Ednah Kurgat show!

undefeated in 2017 xc

Its supposed to start raining tomorrow (Sat) at 8 am, be 60 degrees with a pretty good wind.

If it is tough conditions on a crappy sloppy course - then I go with AllieO for the surprise win.

If it is essentially a tactical track race with good conditions then it is hard not to favor Kurgat (or one of Schweizer/Jones/Purrier who might find a ton of kick late in the race off a slower pace).

BTW - if the Lobos can get 4 in the top 12, and if their #5 can pull out a 50th-60th place, then I believe they get the win. Otherwise, it'll come down to who has the better day between Oregon, Buffs, and SanFran. I'll be counting Lobos in that top 15 after 4K.

hmmm hmmm hmmm wrote:

BTW - if the Lobos can get 4 in the top 12, and if their #5 can pull out a 50th-60th place, then I believe they get the win. Otherwise, it'll come down to who has the better day between Oregon, Buffs, and SanFran. I'll be counting Lobos in that top 15 after 4K.

Thanks captain obvious. Do you realize that would be a mere 60-70 points for UNM if they did that? Only one winning team has scored under 70 in the past decade. If their top 4 are in the top 12, their #5 likely has some breathing room even beyond 60th.

If the conditions deteriorate tomorrow watch out for the Gritty New Englander - Elle Purrier - Don't ever write off the Beast Coasters.

GRIT, GUTS & GLORY BABY!

1+2+3+4+50=60

2+5+8+11+50 = 76

9+10+11+12+50=92

I don't think any of these is a credible scenario for the lobos but the total score is no where near as far fetched as you make it out to be.

Dr. Yes - thank you for your wonderful reply! We are all impressed by your fast grasp of the facts!

Please, tell us the odds you give a team winning with 74 points, 84 points, and 94 points? I'm not asking for an opinion - just please let us know the percent of years a team has won with these point totals (or faster). Then, please give us the conditional probability of winning given the relative strength of the field this year among the top 4 teams compared to all other teams. In other words, when you have a lot of evenly matched top squads my guess is that the winning score will be higher compared to years when the top team is an outlier and can score low (like the Lobos did recently).

Thanks! You are the best!

Thanks for the PhD. These American degrees are too easy!

I'm not sure we even disagree on anything.

I would give any team a very good chance at the win if they score under 100 points, especially considering the field is evenly matched as you said. Chances are, if a team scores under 100 this year - they might just win by a large margin due to the depth this year.

The lowest point total for a runner-up team in the past 20 years is 102.

Real fancy stats right there.

ShowTIMEEEEE wrote:

If the conditions deteriorate tomorrow watch out for the Gritty New Englander - Elle Purrier

She's stocky for a runner, and usually tucks in over 6k, both advantages in windy conditions.

hmmm hmmm hmmm wrote:

If it is essentially a tactical track race with good conditions then it is hard not to favor Kurgat

As Kurgat's forte is running fast all the way, what makes you think she'd be good in a tactical race?

Also, what are her track times?

These were her PRs a year ago.

1,500 - 4:33.85

Mile - 4:50.82 (Indoor)

3K - 9:32.67 (Indoor School Record)

5K - 15:47.89 (Indoor School Record); 15:48.63 (Outdoor School Record)

Based on these, her strength is running fast all the way, not having a big kick at the finish.

Purrier's PRs: 1,500 - 4:12.35 Mile - 4:29:44 (Indoor) 3K - 9:29.29

2016 track wrote:

These were her PRs a year ago.

1,500 - 4:33.85

Mile - 4:50.82 (Indoor)

3K - 9:32.67 (Indoor School Record)

5K - 15:47.89 (Indoor School Record); 15:48.63 (Outdoor School Record)

Based on these, her strength is running fast all the way, not having a big kick at the finish.

Is this the Purrier who was crushed at the end of the steeple in 2017 outdoor championships by relatively new steepler Allie O?

The time change to avoid bad weather should be protested. I agree with some earlier posts that some runners (AllieO) might benefit from sloppy conditions. This is absolute BS - just trying to favor runners who prefer clean-fast conditions.

This change in time is absolute BS.