So UNM's will certainly place it's top 4 quite high. But the 5th scorer is a problem.
Assuming UNM scores something like 25 points with its top 4, how low can the 5th person place and the lobos still win? Assuming the 5th scorer finishes 30, 45 or 60 seconds behind the 15th place finisher, the average point total for that 5th runner is 54, 90 and 119 points over the last 3 championships. The 5th place runner for UNM has varied from meet to meet as has the time behind the 4th runner which is between 30 and 60 seconds.
A 30 second differential gives UNM something around 75 points total. But 45 seconds yields something around 115 which probably won't be enough to beat the other 2 likely contenders.
Thoughts?
UNM women - my math doesn't look favorable
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If Oregon's Ali Cash runs as well as she did last year at NCAA's, its the Ducks to win. If not, the Buffalo's will be trample everyone unless someone from UNM steps up huge!
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I believe New Mex returns a scorer (outside of the big-4) that already scored 80 points as the #4 runner last year's 7th place team from the 2016 NCAA Championship meet. And the other two varsity runners are in her league as well as they have all traded places all season. So it looks like they have three viable options to score +/- 80 points. Solid options, as they just need one of the three to hit and the big-4 to run halfway normal. It will be a close battle no matter what.
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The spread may be wide just based on Kurgat being a beast. NM should have a 5th scoring in the 50s or 60s, and if they do that they will be in the mix because of their stud top four. But they all need to execute and avoid one of the other favorites having the race of their lives.
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Based on an analysis of the past 5-years, UNM needs their #5 runner to aim for around top-90 to have an average chance at the team win.
Winning point totals: 125, 49, 85, 141, 114
Removing the 49 (UNM super team) and replacing it with an average of that year's first place/second place teams (49 and 129 = 89)
Winning Average is around 109 points for the past 5 years.
Assuming UNM overall finishes and corresponding 5-year average point totals:
1st - 1 team point
10th - 7 team points
20th - 15 team points
30th - 22 team points
91st - 64 team points
TOTAL = 109 points and a chance at the win. -
Here's an interesting math question. What does 26 years in Kenya equal in US years? UNM and USF look pretty unbeatable with their Foreign all star teams (top 5 scorers for both teams). In all likelihood, one of those two is going to win.
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5-year math wrote:
Based on an analysis of the past 5-years, UNM needs their #5 runner to aim for around top-90 to have an average chance at the team win.
Winning point totals: 125, 49, 85, 141, 114
Removing the 49 (UNM super team) and replacing it with an average of that year's first place/second place teams (49 and 129 = 89)
Winning Average is around 109 points for the past 5 years.
Assuming UNM overall finishes and corresponding 5-year average point totals:
1st - 1 team point
10th - 7 team points
20th - 15 team points
30th - 22 team points
91st - 64 team points
TOTAL = 109 points and a chance at the win.
I would say their top 4 have an off day if they end up with 45 points from their first 4 runners. -
birther wrote:
Here's an interesting math question. What does 26 years in Kenya equal in US years? UNM and USF look pretty unbeatable with their Foreign all star teams (top 5 scorers for both teams). In all likelihood, one of those two is going to win.
Liberty U might have the answer?
Is UNM all foreign? I thought about 4 of their top-7 graduated from US high schools, or maybe one of those was from a Puerto Rico US Territory HS. -
fredster wrote:
So UNM's will certainly place it's top 4 quite high. But the 5th scorer is a problem.
Assuming UNM scores something like 25 points with its top 4, how low can the 5th person place and the lobos still win? Assuming the 5th scorer finishes 30, 45 or 60 seconds behind the 15th place finisher, the average point total for that 5th runner is 54, 90 and 119 points over the last 3 championships. The 5th place runner for UNM has varied from meet to meet as has the time behind the 4th runner which is between 30 and 60 seconds.
A 30 second differential gives UNM something around 75 points total. But 45 seconds yields something around 115 which probably won't be enough to beat the other 2 likely contenders.
Thoughts?
UNM's 5th runner (most likely Alex Buck) needs to be top 70 for the Lobos to have a chance.
I think that it's going to be a close race for UNM and the Buffs. Much better odds for UNM if their fifth can get top 60 or 55.
Go Lobos!!! -
Forward wrote:
Liberty U might have the answer?
Is UNM all foreign? I thought about 4 of their top-7 graduated from US high schools, or maybe one of those was from a Puerto Rico US Territory HS.
Some people don't like to accept this fact -
fredster wrote:
So UNM's will certainly place it's top 4 quite high. But the 5th scorer is a problem.
Assuming UNM scores something like 25 points with its top 4, how low can the 5th person place and the lobos still win? Assuming the 5th scorer finishes 30, 45 or 60 seconds behind the 15th place finisher, the average point total for that 5th runner is 54, 90 and 119 points over the last 3 championships. The 5th place runner for UNM has varied from meet to meet as has the time behind the 4th runner which is between 30 and 60 seconds.
A 30 second differential gives UNM something around 75 points total. But 45 seconds yields something around 115 which probably won't be enough to beat the other 2 likely contenders.
Thoughts?
they are the potential favorites, but somehow Colorado always rises to the occasion and they ran as a group with very tight finish at regionals. never count them out. -
Among their top 7, 5 are foreign. One is from Indiana and one is from Puerto Rico. USF's top 7 are all foreign. Oregon is about 50/50.
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Kelati is an American high schooler, recruited just like all other hsers......she wasn't "discovered" by franklin and recruited overseas.....
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birther wrote:
Among their top 7, 5 are foreign. One is from Indiana and one is from Puerto Rico. USF's top 7 are all foreign. Oregon is about 50/50.
Wrong.
Kurgat is from Kenya, Wright from the UK, Prouse from Canada.
Kelati is a product of Heritage HS in Virginia. Negron is from Puerto Rico (still the United States). Casey is from Indiana and so is Buck.
So that's three from outside the US and 4 from the US. Far from the 5 you claim to be foreign.
Educate yourself -
FriendlyLobo wrote:
birther wrote:
Among their top 7, 5 are foreign. One is from Indiana and one is from Puerto Rico. USF's top 7 are all foreign. Oregon is about 50/50.
Wrong.
Kurgat is from Kenya, Wright from the UK, Prouse from Canada.
Kelati is a product of Heritage HS in Virginia. Negron is from Puerto Rico (still the United States). Casey is from Indiana and so is Buck.
So that's three from outside the US and 4 from the US. Far from the 5 you claim to be foreign.
Educate yourself
You want them to educate themselves but you claim Kelati is a product of Virginia?? She was 19 yr old as a junior in high school because she emigrated from Eritrea. She arrived as a 17 yr old freshman. So the first 17 yrs didn’t form her as a runner, but 2 yrs in Virginia did the trick. Puerto Rico is not the United States, but a mere subsidiary thereof. So recheck your numbers, or just keep deluding yourself about being “US products”. But at least you’re friendly. -
Old wrestler wrote:
FriendlyLobo wrote:
birther wrote:
Among their top 7, 5 are foreign. One is from Indiana and one is from Puerto Rico. USF's top 7 are all foreign. Oregon is about 50/50.
Wrong.
Kurgat is from Kenya, Wright from the UK, Prouse from Canada.
Kelati is a product of Heritage HS in Virginia. Negron is from Puerto Rico (still the United States). Casey is from Indiana and so is Buck.
So that's three from outside the US and 4 from the US. Far from the 5 you claim to be foreign.
Educate yourself
You want them to educate themselves but you claim Kelati is a product of Virginia?? She was 19 yr old as a junior in high school because she emigrated from Eritrea. She arrived as a 17 yr old freshman. So the first 17 yrs didn’t form her as a runner, but 2 yrs in Virginia did the trick. Puerto Rico is not the United States, but a mere subsidiary thereof. So recheck your numbers, or just keep deluding yourself about being “US products”. But at least you’re friendly.
Puerto Rico LITERALLY is a part of the United States. This is really quite black and white. WTF is a "subsidiary" of a nation supposed to be? That doesn't mean anything. -
WhatNow? wrote:
Old wrestler wrote:
FriendlyLobo wrote:
birther wrote:
Among their top 7, 5 are foreign. One is from Indiana and one is from Puerto Rico. USF's top 7 are all foreign. Oregon is about 50/50.
Wrong.
Kurgat is from Kenya, Wright from the UK, Prouse from Canada.
Kelati is a product of Heritage HS in Virginia. Negron is from Puerto Rico (still the United States). Casey is from Indiana and so is Buck.
So that's three from outside the US and 4 from the US. Far from the 5 you claim to be foreign.
Educate yourself
You want them to educate themselves but you claim Kelati is a product of Virginia?? She was 19 yr old as a junior in high school because she emigrated from Eritrea. She arrived as a 17 yr old freshman. So the first 17 yrs didn’t form her as a runner, but 2 yrs in Virginia did the trick. Puerto Rico is not the United States, but a mere subsidiary thereof. So recheck your numbers, or just keep deluding yourself about being “US products”. But at least you’re friendly.
Puerto Rico LITERALLY [i]is[/u] a part of the United States. This is really quite black and white. WTF is a "subsidiary" of a nation supposed to be? That doesn't mean anything.
So each Puerto Rican votes for president? Collects social security or other US government assistance? Or has to pay the same income tax? Puerto Rico has an autonomous government that controls what happens there. The US controls it’s trade, military, and all matters that deal with other nations. Much like Guam, but I bet you think that it is a clear cut, black and white part of the US. They have their own government and Olympic Teams. They are a “commonwealth” of the United States, thus the term subsidiary. You know the term subsidiary right , like being controlled by a parent company. Now get off the internet and get back to your studies. If you’ve already graduated I feel sorry for your government teacher. -
Old wrestler wrote:
FriendlyLobo wrote:
birther wrote:
Among their top 7, 5 are foreign. One is from Indiana and one is from Puerto Rico. USF's top 7 are all foreign. Oregon is about 50/50.
Wrong.
Kurgat is from Kenya, Wright from the UK, Prouse from Canada.
Kelati is a product of Heritage HS in Virginia. Negron is from Puerto Rico (still the United States). Casey is from Indiana and so is Buck.
So that's three from outside the US and 4 from the US. Far from the 5 you claim to be foreign.
Educate yourself
You want them to educate themselves but you claim Kelati is a product of Virginia?? She was 19 yr old as a junior in high school because she emigrated from Eritrea. She arrived as a 17 yr old freshman. So the first 17 yrs didn’t form her as a runner, but 2 yrs in Virginia did the trick. Puerto Rico is not the United States, but a mere subsidiary thereof. So recheck your numbers, or just keep deluding yourself about being “US products”. But at least you’re friendly.
She is a product of a US high school. She is a US citizen. She did not transfer from a college out of the US to run for UNM. Fax
Also "Puerto Rico is not a part of the United States"? See I've never expected the people on this site to be the brightest, but that is one of the dumbest, ignorant comments I've seen.
Stick to wrestling. -
What do Kelati's first 17 years have to do with anything? From what I've read, running was a means of survival in Eritrea. Period. She is the epitome of the American dream.
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Old wrestler wrote:
So each Puerto Rican votes for president? Collects social security or other US government assistance? Or has to pay the same income tax? Puerto Rico has an autonomous government that controls what happens there. The US controls it’s trade, military, and all matters that deal with other nations. Much like Guam, but I bet you think that it is a clear cut, black and white part of the US. They have their own government and Olympic Teams. They are a “commonwealth” of the United States, thus the term subsidiary. You know the term subsidiary right , like being controlled by a parent company. Now get off the internet and get back to your studies. If you’ve already graduated I feel sorry for your government teacher.
Puerto Rico is unincorporated territory. The fact that you don't consider it to be part of the US shows that you are some kind of ignoramus or an angsty Buffs fan. I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and guess the latter.
