Gwen Jorgensen Quitting Tri, Going Full Time Marathon.

So you think her College times were best all out effort training and results?

Whellan Dowd wrote:

I kinda like the reasoning she's using here:

I was a solid college runner.

I became an Olympic Gold Medal triathlete.

Therefore, I can become an Olympic Gold Medal runner.

Maybe she's kidding about winning the Oly Marathon. Who knows? Before she ran NYCM last year, she said she was only doing it as a bucket list item, and suddenly she thinks a 2:41 after 6 or 7 years as a pro endurance athlete gives her a real shot?

She ran 15:52 and 33:30ish in college. Means she can probably get near 2:30 for the marathon with dedicated training. But that's 5 minutes from what it'll take to even make the team, much less win gold in Tokyo.

there's a section in lore of running on heat tolerance of marathoners - well, heat & humidity.

there are set physical limitations based on heat generated Vs heat dissipated - it can be mapped out mathematically

it goes by weight though, not height

Not sure why some of the posters here don't feel like her potential is better than a high 2:20s or low 2:30s. She ran 2:41 on no marathon training and had never run longer than 16 miles. She clearly has natural running ability and just because she wasn't a nationally regarded runner in college doesn't mean her potential is limited. She clearly had no idea just what she was capable of because she just went into the corporate world post college.

She's (allegedly) about to join the one of the best running groups in the world with all the resources of Nike behind them. She almost beat Hasay in a 10m race off Triathlon training.

Question for all you experts:

If she goes out in her 1st race and runs 2:29:59 will that make you believers? If not what would make you believe?

oh my what the wow wrote:

Oh, man. Found the idiot.

Height in track and field is a bell curve. Look that up. The shortest runners are in the 60/100 and the marathon. Tallest are in the 400/800. (Obviously only talking about track and not field events). Body size (height) is directly correlated to how someone handles the heat especially over long distances like marathon. Ex: Paula Radcliffe. She was excellent in the cold, struggled in the heat always.

Usain Bolt is a massive outlier. Just like there are outliers in everything. I also enjoy how you compare the 100m to the marathon, LOL. You sound like Average Joe Sports Fan.

Female track athletes are also some of the best paid (female) pro athletes in all of sports (competing alongside men determines this). Tennis is the other best paid female sport (also compete alongside men). WNBA salary cap is 99k....

You know that correlation does not imply causation, right? When it comes to heat dissipation it's not being short that matters, it's being thin and long-limbed. She's basically built like Frank Shorter who was excellent in hot weather. Past performance predicts she'll be fine in the heat. Now, can she get her 10k close to 30minutes so she can close a marathon like Shalane and have a chance to win a major? That's a whole other question.

I love this. SO happy you said this.

Baemais Downshade wrote:

Raysism wrote:

I always thought Paula Radcliffe was a really tall marathoner, and Gwen has two inches on her. Any precedent for a 5'10" woman marathoner breaking 2:25? She seems like a really great athlete, but doesn't strike me as the next great marathoner...

Lisa Rainsberger is 5'10"" or thereabouts. I think she ran 2:28.

interesting... you selected another Big 10 swimmer-turned marathoner (that was 4th at the trials 3 straight times)

former pregnant runner wrote:

Pregnant wrote:

She was also 10 days pregnant when she ran they New York Marathon. She really slowed the last 3 miles, if I remember to a 7:30 pace for the last 3.

do you know how pregnancy counting works?! if she really was 10 days pregnant (where did you come up with this number?), then she hadn't even ovulated yet, much less conceived the baby, much less had any symptoms.

Really? You can be pregnant without ovulating or conceiving?

what part of the brain you using? wrote:

People that do great things never accomplish it from a place of being super analytical. People that accomplish great things are people that dream things that are offensive to the analytical mind. Being super analytical and sophisticated is actually more of a stumbling block to greatness than anything.

True.

As for the Olympic gold goal, sure it's out there, but she doesn't think like you and me, and for marketing purposes what do you want her to say - "I'm hoping to be semi good?" Aiming for gold puts a lot more intrigue out there.

Wish I had known about the Bowerman Girls tagging her on social media- I would have asked Shalane about it.

And those of you saying, "She's disprespecting our sport" and then pointing to her 2:41 marathon time as the type of runner she is, you all are disrespecting our sport. She bonked in a marathon while training like it was a half-marathon. If you don't acknowledge that, then you can't criticize her for not discussing the nuances of Dibaba and Keitany taking the marathon back to the Radcliffe level (who never won an Olympic gold).

^ This

Remember, she's a reigning Olympic Gold Medalist already, and the best at her discipline in history. She can't simply state that her goal is to switch to marathoning and hope to make the team. Besides, let her say what she wants and do what she wants! she's playing with house money here, unlike other Olympic team hopefuls.

HMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM wrote:

Not sure why some of the posters here don't feel like her potential is better than a high 2:20s or low 2:30s. She ran 2:41 on no marathon training and had never run longer than 16 miles. She clearly has natural running ability and just because she wasn't a nationally regarded runner in college doesn't mean her potential is limited. She clearly had no idea just what she was capable of because she just went into the corporate world post college.

She's (allegedly) about to join the one of the best running groups in the world with all the resources of Nike behind them. She almost beat Hasay in a 10m race off Triathlon training.

Question for all you experts:

If she goes out in her 1st race and runs 2:29:59 will that make you believers? If not what would make you believe?

I feel like her potential is right around high 2:20s/low 2:30s because we (the US of A) only have a small handful of women at any one time who can run faster than that, and the odds that a 32 year old, 5'10" woman with little running background is the next one to run 2:25 are pretty slim. She ran a 2:41 on no marathon-specific training, but a TON of aerobic training.

I've coached youth/HS runners who come over from competetive triathlon circuit, and many times they get no faster (and sometimes get slower) because it turns out they're really great triathletes but just good distance runners (when compared to people who are far more talented at pure aerobic running).

I don't put much weight in the 10 mile race, other than it shows me she's a pretty good distance runner. Most pretty good distance runners run high 2:20s/low 2:30s. I don't think she'll ever approach Hasay's marathon times, but who knows I guess.

If she goes out and runs 2:29:59 in her first race, it will make me believe that her potential is somewhere in the high 2:20s. All of our great marathoners debuted in the 2:25 to 2:28 range, and none of them got their PR much lower than that (Shalane being the biggest improver, and Gwen ain't Shalane).

All that being said, I'm rooting like hell for her -- would love to add another woman to the current pool of talented US marathoners. I'm just not ready to put a 2:41 marathoner in her 30s on the Olympic team.

Comparing her to McGregor is absurd. He's over the top obnoxious and arrogant (part of the act in that sport). Gwen was not calling anyone out in any way. She stated her goal. Sure, you can chuckle. That's reasonable, but don't call her disrespectful.

I'll ask it this way. What does her PR need to be heading into Tokyo (assuming she makes the team) for you to believe she's got a legit shot at gold? I'll define legit as Vegas would have her as a top 5 favorite.

I think the sky's the limit for her. That being said, its a long road to get from where she currently is with respect to her times in the marathon, to where she wants to be. Can she do it? No idea, but it will be fun to watch, just as her rise to the gold medal in the triathlon was.

Um, What? wrote:

former pregnant runner wrote:

do you know how pregnancy counting works?! if she really was 10 days pregnant (where did you come up with this number?), then she hadn't even ovulated yet, much less conceived the baby, much less had any symptoms.

Really? You can be pregnant without ovulating or conceiving?

What "former pregnant runner" is point out is that pregnancy counting starts from the date of the last menstrual period, not the date of ovulation/conception. Therefore if, on count back, she was 10 days into her 40 week standard pregnancy, she had not actually ovulated or conceived at that time.

I wasn't comparing their personalities. Duh.

However, athletically, it was a very apt comparison:

MMA is like triathlon in that in combines several different fighting sports into one fighting sport, the way triathlon combines several endurance sports into one endurance sport (difference: in MMA, you have to switch from one discipline to the other without warning, there is not an order of "events"). Sometimes one can become dominant in MMA or triathlon by being really good (compared to his/her competitors) at one of the disciplines in your sport while being good enough at the others. This is McGregor (boxing) and Gwen (running). McGregor then said he was going to do the boxing equivalent of winning an Olympic Gold in running, by defeating Mayweather and "taking over boxing" (i.e., dominating other boxing champions. Only beating Mayweather, at his age, would be like maybe a bronze, despite his undefeated record). It was never going to happen. Just as Gwen will never win OG Gold in the marathon, despite being a really good distance athlete and runner.

The only advantage Gwen had/has over McGregor is: she's proven to be a top runner in run only races. McGregor had never done that in boxing before the Mayweather fight. Gwen has a real track record (pun not intended) in running against professional distance runners. McGregor didn't (against pro boxers). However, Gwen's running record does not appear to be good enough to suggest she might win the ultimate prize of distance running.

This is just her way of saying she's tired of the ITU lifestyle , has a new baby, and wants to cont to appear legit to sponsors. Others before her including Desiree Ficker and Carol Montgomery tried the same thing. Triathlon is not running.

I'm focusing on the "disrespectful" aspect. I agree with your assessment about McGregor's involvement in boxing. That's almost exactly the same situation with Gwen (multi sport to single sport). If McGregor says his goal is to be world champ in boxing I don't take it as disrespectful, even if it could be considered a ridiculous goal by some. But him doing it in a totally obnoxious and arrogant manner, calling people out, insulting people, etc.....that's disrespectful and is not in any way similar to what Gwen did. That's how I see it.

Gwen has never won in Kona. She still has something to accomplish. She will never make the Olympic marathon team.

1. Tokyo 2020 will be a sprint distance for triathlon, which dampens the motivation for trying to defend her Rio gold.

2. She's stated she doesn't have an interest in moving up in distance in triathlon. Why is that the rule? You think Jenny Simpson wants to run a marathon? If you're fast, be fast. I respect it.

3. The Jamie Turner group she trained with was great, but Ironman pros do a LOT of their training solo. And it just requires a ton of time. She has a new family and probably sees the time investment as smaller in marathon training (which is is).

4. She ran a 2:41 at NYC last year at the end of a very, very long tri season and like a week after Island House. I'd wager she was capable of running 2:30 for the distance (maybe not at NYC) and with focus could put herself in the 2:26 range.

If she were to keep doing ITU, what does she have to prove? Within 2 years of triathlon she was an Olympian (2012). She got her swim to the first pack, improved her bike skills, and ran the pants off everyone else. She went 2 years basically without suffering a defeat, winning World titles and, probably in the easiest race of her year, won an Olympic gold. At this point she'd be coming back just to show that she could still do it, which I don't think anybody doubts. I think the thing I'm most bummed about is her squaring off against Flora Duffy, who is absolutely a better all-rounder in triathlon. That would have been cool.

But then you realize that you're realistically looking at 2 marathons per calendar year, so assuming she's been training and BTC feels she's prepared for a spring race, she does a marathon in April (Boston?) and another in the fall (Chicago?). Then you assume a spring 2019 but maybe not a fall 2019 necessarily, depending on how things shake out for 2020 Trials. So 3, maybe 4 marathons - that puts her on the low end of the spectrum for experience against an anticipated 2020 field. Barring unforeseen circumstance you have to assume Hasay and Huddle are top 2 contenders, and then you have to expect more people in that 2:26-2:30 range. Are the women of 2016 team done by 2020? Maybe not.

Making the US team is going to be hard. She's massively talented, incredibly driven and beyond disciplined. A very "coachable" athlete. It's going to be cool to watch.