The 2:30 thing comes from her current fitness, which is around 31:30-45/70-71 based on her 53' time at US half champs. She ran that hard, somewhat fresh, and in a little block of running focus leading up to NYC. As you said, she has also run 32:20 on the roads, so somewhere mid 31s seems reasonable.
Which basically matches what I said, she is already a very good US female runner. Top 10 at those distances at a minimum. Maybe top 5.
I'm a little unsure when you talk about my 1 in 10,000 odds. I think he odds of making the team in the OGs is MUCH better than that. I'd like to see her run one "real" marathon (i.e. with running focus) and then can be more confident. If her marathon is the equal of her shorter times, she has at least a 50% shot to make the team. For now I knocked that down to maybe 10-20% since we don't know how good she is at the marathon. There are great runners that are terrible at the marathon. See Tadese. He has all the qualities you talked about for Gwen, but still can't deliver a good M. a 31:00 10k runner is like around 67-68 for the half. If you take to the marathon like crazy that's low 2:20s, mid 2:20s if you're medium, and high 2:20s or worse if you're Tadese 2.0.
With none of these things (Gwen being a great marathoner relative to her other races, ability to get 5-10 s/mile faster, durability of the body, etc.) all uncertain, you just can't get her higher than a 10-20% chance to make the team. I think in a year we will have a very good picture of that. If we were talking 10,000m US team, I'd say better than 50% chance, especially if she can kick.
Winning gold, I stand by one in 1 in 10,000. I think someone like Hasay has perhaps a 1 in 100 chance to win gold. Too much has to go right, and there are enough other great runners that at least one of them is likely on their game. Even if you're Mary Keitany your odds of gold are probably 25% at best. Hasay isn't nearly the runner that Keitany or Dibaba is, so her chances have to be much, much less. Then you have to ask what are the chances Gwen is as good or better than Hasay at the marathon...I can't put those odds at better than 10%, and I think that's being generous. Best case you're giving Gwen 1 in a 1,000 odds to get a gold based on fitness alone. Factor in probability of injuries at the wrong time, illness, etc. the odds you don't show up healthy to the games are decent. That decreases her chances from that 1 in 1000 even further.
*Wow. Had to edit your name in the response because it tripped the profanity sensor...