The thought of Almaz running with male pacers makes for the prospect of frighteningly fast times. Hell she manages to eclipse the 10000m field running almost two thirds of the race entirely on her own, god only knows how fast she can run being paced by an elite male runner. We've seen Jepkosgei running manic times on the roads with male pacers and I don't reckon her to be in the same league as Almaz Ayana in terms of talent.
Yeah , totally agree! At least in the HM , then the Marathon of course is a different story but she has
all the potential to reach the top.
Hill Run wrote:
Also most runners will economise their running style for the longer distances. I noticed Tirunesh Dibaba now has an over exaggerated elevated arm carriage with her arms held within the lateral spread of her rib cage.
This was very noticeable at the worlds when she ran the 10000m Tim Hutchings commented on her arm carriage which she had obviously modified for marathon running to conserve energy. Remember she was initially preparing to run the marathon at worlds until the Ethiopian fed requested she run the 10k (presumably concerned Almaz may not recover from her calf injury when they made the decision a few months before)
Almaz has an unusual arm carriage with her arms held out from her torso and swinging through ahead of her body, watch her run and you see her head is stationary but her body is pulled sharply left and right each long stride.
I wonder if this will take its toll in terms of shoulder and neck strain throughout the longer race.
T Dibaba have always had this arm carriage style.
Bluesky wrote:
Yeah absolutely, not automatically but faster times on the tracks will predict also better times on the road.
Of course for WR need the right course right conditions , adaptation etc. etc.
This especially in the HM, for the Marathon of course the adaptation will need more time.
But just look these examples , Tirunesh Dibaba after an endless legendary career in track(from2003 gold
Paris world 5000 to 2017 london silver 10000 ) she went to the marathon and of course at the beginning it wasnt easy but this year in april in London she did 2:17:56 and six months later in Chicago 2:18:30. Only Radcliffe and Keitany. faster than she in the marathon.
Kennenisa Bekele same as Dibaba but with a lot of injury problems during his career.
When finally he had the chance to have a good preparation with not many problems he did in Berlin
2:03:03!!!
The eternal Gebrsellassie same thing, Eliud Kipchoge great on the track legendary in the marathon
So having great times on the track is of course a good prediction for the times on the road.
If now Ayana is able to run a 10000 in 2'55/km I dont see the reason why she cant run a fast HM
in good conditions in 3'03"/ 3'05"/km of course with pacers like normally happens in HM.
Maybe she will need some adaptations , yes but soon or later she will do those times
I don't know. I have to say the marathon has been very easy for dibaba from the beginning, because she was was already doing half marathons while she was still on the track. In her marathon debut( London), she ran 2:20 ( that's a PR for a lot of elite women right now) and finished in 3rd place. She would have won the race had she not dropped her water bottle, which led to the Kipligats dropping her. From cross country, to the track, to the road, dibaba's progression has always been very good. I wish her sister was just as focused.
One thing Kipchoge, Bekele, and Dibaba have over Ayana is GREAT CLOSING SPEED, and great stamina. They didn't die in the last half of their races, and they ran doubles, with Bekele and Dibaba winning the double more than once. I question Ayana's stamina. Yeah, she can get out fast. We all now that, but in the half and full marathon, you have to be able to close. So let's see if she has stamina for the roads, or will she fade later on in marathons races like Tadese( and tadese was probably the 2nd to 3rd best 10000m runner on the track during Bekele's era). I wouldn't be surprised if she turns into a half marathon specialists only.
We shall see.
Yeah I'm with you Scorpion, Tirunesh had much more experience prior to entering the longer road races. - of course an overlooked point is that Almaz may simply be keen to do some running and explore other areas in between track seasons. Let's not forget she only ran twice this season past at WC due to lingering injury and the federation pulling her from a few diamond league meets, so I reckon she is simply keen to run somewhere.
I speculate she will go out more conservatively than usual and then ramp it up after a while. She does have a delicacy about her stride and is a very fluid long striding forefoot striker. I'm fascinated as to how she will approach the race, also fascinated as to how long she can maintain her pace - or more importantly how long she has the Confidence to maintain her pace.
The biggest question relates to her documented inability to recover and race to her usual standard in the second race of championships,- does this post race fatigue kick in after she concludes her race or is she suffering throughout the latter stages of her 10k runs, - the half marathon will definitely reveal which.
I reckon 67.11 should win it.
VIPAM wrote:
Ayana will debut on the quick Delhi 1/2 marathon against her top coat competitor who has a 1:06:19pb. What will Ayana run?
I predict that Ayana runs 67:11 for half marathon.
Yes , thats a great debut in the HM for Almaz Ayana. 1:07:11 3'11"/km . I think that is 96% of her
full potential. By the way the race was decided in the final kilometre when she pulled away from her rivals . This for those that say she doesnt have a great closing speed! Or she doesnt have stamina!
When you have 29'17 in 10000 you have everything! Of course she doesnt have the Sprint of others
runners like Dibaba , Obiri,Cheruyot etc. but in HM and in Marathon I think is more important to be able to run alone at a fast pace for several km than havin a great final 400. Paula Radcliffe was another that didnt have a great closing speed but this it didnt affect her great career in HM and Marathon.
She is the one to beat Radcliffe's WR.
Bluesky wrote:
Or she doesnt have stamina!
She is incredible, but has her weaknesses as well. She lacks 400m type speed, and seems a bit one trick pony-ish. If her usual tactic of breaking the field with her insane pace fails, she is usually in deep waters and seems to break psychologically.
BUT, this weird idea that she doesn't have stamina continues to confuse me.
Have you guys watched her run 10000m?!!
your rong! wrote:
She is incredible, but has her weaknesses as well. She lacks 400m type speed
Which doesn't matter, because she runs 3k's through 10k's and half marathons.
Strength is strength, not weakness wrote:
your rong! wrote:
She is incredible, but has her weaknesses as well. She lacks 400m type speed
Which doesn't matter, because she runs 3k's through 10k's and half marathons.
My point was that she lacks finishing speed. I know she isn't competing in the 400m.
But my real point was that there are some posters on the boards that doubts her stamina. Which I find mind-boggling.
96% of her ability in the half-marathon are you serious. It may take her a couple of attempts in order to get comfortable; however, the 1:03:45 is closer to her ceiling then her debut time of 1:07:11. If she stays healthy the WR in the half and the marathon are hers and J. Jepkosgei for the taking back and forth when they run a couple of full marathons. Ayana has more potential in the marathon then any woman alive..
Remember when I said TIrunesh Dibaba would be a great 10000m runner and predict her and Elvan Abyelegesse would be the next two women under 30 minutes and MANY people said they possessed too much foot speed. They both delivered and TIruensh is now a 2:17 marathoner with a few more good marathons in her. Listen if Almaz stay healthy and if it's her focus 2:13 is possible for they young lady and don't think her 10000m WR is her lifetime personal best because she will run faster than her current 10000m WR as well. Sound crazy I know but she isn't near her ceiling from 10000m to the marathon.
Agreed. However, Elvan Abyelegesse was a dopper.
Yes Elvan was a doper; however, I maybe my assessment off her form at the time before she failed her drug test and I was correct about the next two women under 30 minutes despite one never running a 10000m and the other pb over the 32 minute barrier. I'm don't want any kudos, I'm just pointing out many posters thought I was crazy about that prediction as well and even though it took 2-4 years it still happened.
Alice Nawowuna the kenyan who placed 4th at the Olympics (after forcing the WR pace) and 4th at the 2017 Worlds will be the one who not by choice helps Almaz break her 10000m WR again. ANYONE TELL ME WHY Alice is running FOUR prestty fasst 10000m every year for the last 2 years?
VIPAM wrote:
96% of her ability in the half-marathon are you serious. It may take her a couple of attempts in order to get comfortable; however, the 1:03:45 is closer to her ceiling then her debut time of 1:07:11. If she stays healthy the WR in the half and the marathon are hers and J. Jepkosgei for the taking back and forth when they run a couple of full marathons. Ayana has more potential in the marathon then any woman alive..
Remember when I said TIrunesh Dibaba would be a great 10000m runner and predict her and Elvan Abyelegesse would be the next two women under 30 minutes and MANY people said they possessed too much foot speed. They both delivered and TIruensh is now a 2:17 marathoner with a few more good marathons in her. Listen if Almaz stay healthy and if it's her focus 2:13 is possible for they young lady and don't think her 10000m WR is her lifetime personal best because she will run faster than her current 10000m WR as well. Sound crazy I know but she isn't near her ceiling from 10000m to the marathon.
I don't know. There is a huge difference between her and Dibaba. Dibaba was/is a beast in all types of races. She can run tactically( sit and kick), or she can blaze from beginning to end(5000m wr), which is why she won 2 major ( WC and Olympics) doubles. Ayana has never won the double, and has been utterly destroyed twice at 5000m in championship races. So her stamina will always be questioned, can she run faster or maintain pace in the second half of the race? We all know she can go out at WR pace, but does she have tactical ability and can she maintain her running in the second half of a marathon race? That will be the question.
She could turn into a Tadese... A blazing fast 10000m and half marathon runner, who should be able to run 2;04 in his sleep, but runs the marathon in 2:10 and 2:11, because he is aerobically weak in the second half of the marathon.
We shall see.
VIPAM wrote:
ANYONE TELL ME WHY Alice is running FOUR prestty fasst 10000m every year for the last 2 years?
I agree with everything you said except this.
I don't know what a prestty is, but recovery from 10k's is not that difficult.
Carlos Lopes raced EVERY WEEK leading up to his Olympic marathon gold and WCCC gold the same year, one of many.
Strength is strength, not weakness wrote:
Which doesn't matter, because she runs 3k's through 10k's and half marathons.
It doesn't matter for any race longer than 400m. It would only matter if she was forced to sit and kick. Sitting and kicking is a choice.
I agree and personally I feel she needs to abandon her hopes of the double and pick either the 5000m or 10000m at the next 2 major championships. She is strong enough to win either as long as she doesnt' double.
Tiruesh, Kenenisa, and Mo all won their doubles due to their endurance and their superior kicks. HAVE ANY individuals been able to secure the 5000/10000m double without great kicks in the last 40 years?
Is there a rule against attaching a helium balloon to yourself while running a road race?
Jakob Ingebrigtsen has a 1989 Ferrari 348 GTB and he's just put in paperwork to upgrade it
How rare is it to run a sub 5 minute mile AND bench press 225?
Am I living in the twilight zone? The Boston Marathon weather was terrible!
Mark Coogan says that if you could only do 3 workouts as a 1500m runner you should do these
Move over Mark Coogan, Rojo and John Kellogg share their 3 favorite mile workouts