ALMAZ AYANA : making 1/2 marathon debut at world's richest half on Sunday - PREDICT HER TIME

Scorpion_runner wrote:

Also, I think she is going to be the Wilson Kipsang of running, where she is going to turn the screw on every mile to beat people. However, if she has company in the last 2 miles or so, she will not win because she has no kick. We see it with Kipsang all the time. If bekele or kipchoge is still with him with 1 or 2 miles to go, you know he isn't going to win. No closing speed.

So ,again, it is going to be really interesting to see how she runs on the road.

Leave Wilson alone, the man can kick! (go to 10:30 on the vid)

true brit wrote:

Scorpion_runner wrote:

Also, I think she is going to be the Wilson Kipsang of running, where she is going to turn the screw on every mile to beat people. However, if she has company in the last 2 miles or so, she will not win because she has no kick. We see it with Kipsang all the time. If bekele or kipchoge is still with him with 1 or 2 miles to go, you know he isn't going to win. No closing speed.

So ,again, it is going to be really interesting to see how she runs on the road.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dPRszHqqaiA&t=708s

Leave Wilson alone, the man can kick! (go to 10:30 on the vid)

I love Wilson, but he can't kick with Kipchoge or bekele. See the 2016 Berlin marathon. Hell, wilson is my favorite marathoner.

But he is not known for his kick. Wilson is known for turning the screw, and making the race faster after each lap.

Put it like this, let's say Galen were to find a way to stick with Kipsang in a marathon with 6 miles to go, Wilson would get smoked, because Galen is a sub 27 10000m runner.......and I'm not a huge galen fan.

Is true that she doesnt have the kick of Cheruyot or Obiri . But in a half marathon or in marathon that is not a very bad issue.

She s a kind of Alice Aprot and in Rio it was just a perfect race for Ayana. Cos she had for the the first 5km Alice Aprot

pushing a very solid pace , and basically she was just a fantastic rabbit then Ayana went alone for the second part of the race

destroying everyone. So is not true that she goes out fast and hard . She just can run 29'17" but to do that she had the help

of a fantastic Alice Aprot in the first half of the Rio 10000. And in London maybe she was even stronger in the 10000 but

she hadn't the rabbit like in Rio so it was impossible to do the record but even with a slow start she covered the second 5000 of the race in 14'24"!!! In the 5000 she can win if they start at world record pace and then keep going till the end so she avoid the sprint.

So Ayana can run a 10000 at a pace of 2'55"/km and everybody have seen how "easy" is for her that pace , I mean she's confortable at that pace not struggling at all. This is very important and in my opinion a great quality for the half marathon

and later for the marathon.

Now if she can run a 10000 in 2'55" /km . What pace she can run her first half marathon? I think absolutely normal and very humble if I say 3'04"-3'05"/km. So we are on world record pace Joyciline Jepkosgei Valencia WR 1:04:51 is 3'04/km.

Jepkosgei personal best on 10000 track is from 2016 31'28" Durban African championships she won bronze medal while Alice

Aprot won the gold in 30'26'. Then two months later in Rio Ayana 29'17 gold Aprot 29'53" fourth(if im not mistaken)

This to say that Ayana has more better times than Jepkosgei more than 2' on a 10000 track .

But this days strange things are happening cos Jepkosgei in a few months went from 31'28" to 30'05" do it in the first 10k of

Prague HM then this september in Valencia HM another world record 10k 29'43" HM 1'04"51" !!! Thats a HUGE improvement at that kind of elite level in just one year.

Honestly it s hard these days to do any kind of prediction cos really can happens everything.

With logic I would say if Jepkosgei has 1:04:51 ....... so Ayana should be able to run 1:03

Won't it be too hot to run in a coat?

El Keniano wrote:

All the money is on the roads.

Usain Bolt, Mo Farah, Jessica Ennis, etc

Ayana doesn't race enough on the track.

Scorpion_runner wrote:

I love Wilson, but he can't kick with Kipchoge or bekele. See the 2016 Berlin marathon. Hell, wilson is my favorite marathoner.

But he is not known for his kick. Wilson is known for turning the screw, and making the race faster after each lap.

Put it like this, let's say Galen were to find a way to stick with Kipsang in a marathon with 6 miles to go, Wilson would get smoked, because Galen is a sub 27 10000m runner.......and I'm not a huge galen fan.

In high school I had a new teammate who thought I was the fastest 400m runner on my team because I always ran the fastest last 400m split... that's not how it works.

(in XC)

EPO's a heck of a drug wrote:

59

Probably no pre & post race tests in Delhi.

aafadfasdf wrote:

Scorpion_runner wrote:

I love Wilson, but he can't kick with Kipchoge or bekele. See the 2016 Berlin marathon. Hell, wilson is my favorite marathoner.

But he is not known for his kick. Wilson is known for turning the screw, and making the race faster after each lap.

Put it like this, let's say Galen were to find a way to stick with Kipsang in a marathon with 6 miles to go, Wilson would get smoked, because Galen is a sub 27 10000m runner.......and I'm not a huge galen fan.

In high school I had a new teammate who thought I was the fastest 400m runner on my team because I always ran the fastest last 400m split... that's not how it works.

You didn't see the chicago marathon. And your analogy does not work, it's the other way around. Galen is a fast 10000m runner, not just a fast 10000m split runner.

Now of course Galen wouldn't be able to stay with Wilson in a fast race, because wilson would go out fast and strong, and continue to turn it up. However, if galen did find some way to stay with Wilson, or the race turned out to be a slow race with 10k left....Galen would be the favorite in that situation, and I would bet the house on it with no hesitation. And again, I don't particularly like Galen, but he is strong in the area like Renato stated.

67.40

1:04:52

You're making the assumption that faster track credentials are a better predictor than faster road credentials. I don't think there is any basis for that. Ayana is faster on the track than Jepkosgei, and Jepkosgei is faster on the road. Ayana is going to race on the roads. If Jepkosgei is anything to go by, track credentials are a good but not great predictor of performances on the road. Maybe she goes faster than Jepkosgei (I doubt this will be possible in hot and humid Delhi) but we likely won't know it until they race in the same race on a flat European course. For now I'd say she wins and runs a course record or very close.

Looks like we've got a name change^3.

Ideal conditions 1:04:23; otherwise, a solid effort in 1:05:48

WR

Based on her track credentials, my guess is if she chooses, she will obliterate the WR.

TrackCoach wrote:

Based on her track credentials, my guess is if she chooses, she will obliterate the WR.

Track and road running are completely different. Remember, even Bekele is a minute away from the 10K WR on the road.

I would say 1:06:30, if the condition is ideal.

Yeah absolutely, not automatically but faster times on the tracks will predict also better times on the road.

Of course for WR need the right course right conditions , adaptation etc. etc.

This especially in the HM, for the Marathon of course the adaptation will need more time.

But just look these examples , Tirunesh Dibaba after an endless legendary career in track(from2003 gold

Paris world 5000 to 2017 london silver 10000 ) she went to the marathon and of course at the beginning it wasnt easy but this year in april in London she did 2:17:56 and six months later in Chicago 2:18:30. Only Radcliffe and Keitany. faster than she in the marathon.

Kennenisa Bekele same as Dibaba but with a lot of injury problems during his career.

When finally he had the chance to have a good preparation with not many problems he did in Berlin

2:03:03!!!

The eternal Gebrsellassie same thing, Eliud Kipchoge great on the track legendary in the marathon

So having great times on the track is of course a good prediction for the times on the road.

If now Ayana is able to run a 10000 in 2'55/km I dont see the reason why she cant run a fast HM

in good conditions in 3'03"/ 3'05"/km of course with pacers like normally happens in HM.

Maybe she will need some adaptations , yes but soon or later she will do those times

But he is only 6 seconds away in a race 4 times that distance? I don't understand your logic.

Can he maybe remove 4 minutes from his 2:03 if they decide to run it on the track?