blargh wrote:
At this point it really depends on Beamish and Grijalva coming through for NAU and for BYU it's Clinger and Carney. I wouldn't be surprised if the two teams are separated by only 10 points at nationals. Here's how i've got it sketched out so far at natties:
4. Linkletter (BYU)
5. Baxter (NAU)
7. Day (NAU)
11. Trouard (NAU
12. Clinger (BYU)
14. McMillan (BYU)
25. Young (BYU)
26. Beamish (NAU)
29. Carney (BYU)
40. Grijalva (NAU)
BYU: 84
NAU: 89
This is on the optimistic side for Beamish and Carney. Would not be surprised if Trouard slips a bit at 10K or if Grijalva moves up; I could see him being a stud.
This matchup reminds me of Syracuse and Colorado in 2015....BYU being Colorado (IMO the favorites, deep pack, good front runner in Linkletter) and NAU as Syracuse (depending champs but stretched for depth, still with 3 studs). If you recall, this is how it played out:
3 Murphy, Pierce SR-4 Colorado 4:46.0 29:37.0 2
4 Knight, Justyn SO-2 Syracuse 4:47.4 29:46.1 3
8 Bennie, Colin SO-2 Syracuse 4:49.0 29:55.9 7
9 Hehir, Martin SR-4 Syracuse 4:49.6 29:59.5 8
25 Pearson, Morgan SR-4 Colorado 4:52.2 30:16.1 20
26 Dressel, John FR-1 Colorado 4:52.3 30:16.4 21
31 Saarel, Ben JR-3 Colorado 4:52.9 30:19.8 23
33 Winter, Connor SR-4 Colorado 4:53.1 30:21.7 25
39 Germano, Philo SO-2 Syracuse 4:54.4 30:29.5 29
47 Hubbard, Joel JR-3 Syracuse 4:54.7 30:31.5 35
Syracuse: 82
Colorado: 91
Now, I predict we see a BYU team that shows up really going for it from the gun. Maybe we see all five in the top 20/25 midway through the race. Meanwhile NAU deploys Baxter, Day, and Trouard up front to keep pace with their pack while keeping their next 2-3 back around 40th, hoping some BYU guys will succumb to the heat and can be picked off. Assuming several of them (maybe Clinger and Carney) feel the early pace and fade back, NAU will win, just barely. However I do not see the depth in the NCAA being what it was in 2015, which means BYU will need at least those 2 guys to really flop (outside the top 40) for NAU to win a second in a row.