I saw the race Lindsey Scherf ran last evening:
(1) RACE SUMMARY: Scherf was going for the junior record and had to set a reasonably fast pace early on. Columbia University’s Caroline Bierbaum was the only other fast runner in this race. 3rd place runner finished two minutes slower than these two. Bierbaum likely knew Scherf was going to have to go out fast and maintain a fast pace for the record. So she just sat right behind Scherf for the first 20 laps and used Scherf as her rabbit. Then at 100 meters into the 21st lap, Bierbaum suddenly passed Scherf with a burst of speed that put her ahead by 30 meters over the next half lap. Scherf did not try to follow but stayed focused on keeping a steady pace of 79 seconds per lap . It would have been foolish for her to try to stay with Bierbaum’s brief sprint with 2K yet to go. Bierbaum widened her lead to about 50 meters, or 10 seconds, after another lap. In the final two laps, Scherf managed to reduce Bierbaum’s lead a little, and closed to within 35m meters or 7 seconds at the finish line. Scherf’s final lap was a strong 75 seconds, but Bierbaum continued to run strong and Scherf had no chance of catching her at the end. These runners now have the top two 10K times this season.
(2) COMPARING MALE TO FEMALE TIMES: Using the WAVA age graded tables, Rupp’s time looks considerably better than Scherf’s. But these WAVA tables are seriously flawed -- at least when it comes to comparing men to women. The latest 1994 WAVA tables for women were based on men’s times, not women’s. This saved those who produced these tables considerable time and effort. No need to believe me on this. Just contact the USATF Road Racing Information Center. They are trying to use its leverage to get this changed before the next update to the WAVA tables comes out. Using WAVA adjustments for ages below 20 is risky because these tables were also based largely on top junior times from Kenya, Ethiopia, etc. where the athlete’s true age is often unknown and rarely documented (few birth certificates here). That said, Rupp’s time is still better that Scherf’s, but not the 4% better the WAVA tables would indicate.
Looking at the top world times is risky due to potential (perhaps very likely) drug use. Comparing male vs. female performances based on only one top male performance (a world record) and one similar top female performance is not statistically valid. But just in case you are curious about this, in the marathon, amazing Paula Radcliff is now running only about 10% slower than the top men. This percentage gets larger as the running distance gets shorter. For 5K, it is currently 14%. So Scherf’s performance, being 16% slower than Rupp’s might indicate her performance compared to Rupp’s is 2% weaker. But this might not be true. Let’s wait until WAVA produces a set of tables for women that is actually based on women’s times.
(3) COMPARING APPLES TO ORANGES: Regarding which performance is better, you also need to understand:
- Scherf does not have access to underwater treadmills, high-altitude breathing tents and everything else that Rupp had available under Salazar.
- Scherf probably has to spend a little more time on her academics at Harvard than does Rupp at Oregon (is he even taking classes there yet?)
- Rupp’s race had a rabbit and quite a few top competitors.
- Scherf had no one to follow at any time during her race. It was a solo effort, except that she rabbited Bierbaum for the first 20 laps which certainly helped Bierbaum get a new personal best.
- Rupp had to run his last 8 laps by himself. Scherf had to run all 25 laps by herself.
- Rupp announced he was going for the record – but then backed off and stated he was only trying to break 29:00. In either case, this was going to be his big race and he surely tapered properly for it.
- Scherf never kept it a secret she was going for the record. But she could not find out until 24 hours before the race if Bierbaum was going to enter. If not she was considering racing only the 5K this weekend to get a regional qualifier which she currently does not have. NCAA rules prohibit her from using her 5K split of 16:23 in this 10K race to meet the 16:52 qualifier for the Regional meet. Now that’s a rule that makes lots of sense!!
- So she decided to continue focusing her training for the coming NCAA championship and did not really taper for this race. She had hard workouts early in the week followed by only two easy days just before the race. So wait until NCAAs when she does a proper taper and doesn’t have to race out front nearly the entire race. Perhaps we’ll see her run even faster before the season ends. But perhaps Rupp will run faster as well. For both of them, this is only their 2nd 10K race.
- The weather was very bad in NY for Scherf’s race. Winds were constantly blowing at 10mph+ and often gusting to over 20mph. Highest gust of day was recorded at 40mph. That’s how Scherf’s race started out, but as the sun was setting during her race, the winds quickly died out with little wind the last 4-5 laps.
- Then again Scherf has the advantage of not having had Salazar for a coach.
So congratulations to both Lindsey and Galen!!!. You don’t need to be compared to each other. Compared to runners of your age and own gender, you both are outstanding. Be careful with your training, stay healthy, and save yourselves for a post-collegiate running career. Collegiate performances may seem important now, but if you make it to the pros, your college performances won’t mean anything more to you that do your high school performances.