no
you shoud have enough sense by now to know that that calculator says nothing about PBs just about what current shape they are in
that's why i asked you for the guy's estimate of current 400 shape & try to find a line of fit with that & 59-high, nothing about PBs
i have estimated the slow guys run about 55 for 400 when in their best shape & this guy is in his best 1/2M shape ever
when he started off as a kid, his 400 speed maya been 53, perhaps even 52 but of course he had no serious endurance then
it's a mistake to even use 3'33 for his peak 1500 ability
he actually ran a 3'33pb in hengelo in '04 of which i didn't see much detail of but his biggest profile 1500 was in '05 in london where off nonsense pacer splits of 53+/1'51+ then crawl to 1200 in 2'50 he finished a narrow 4th in 3'33.80 behind Bernie winning in 3'33.12
the pacing was terrible & perhaps poor conditions because Bernie later in year ran 3'29.30 off better pacing
i'm not saying Eliud was worth 3'29 that day in ideal race but i have no doubt he couda gone 3'30/3'31 that day off ideal pacing
no way is 3'33 a figure to use for his peak 1500 ability, not as bad as stating hicham was only a 1'46 guy, but it's still bad
no way
perhaps you mean 3'42 in Eldoret at 7,000' but no way is Eliud only capable of 3'42 at sea-level
currently he shoud be capable of 3'37 +/- 1s
he very much certainly has 53 or 54s speed currently & 2"02'00 on a track is far from generous
54.00 / 2"02'00
->
1'52.58
3'38.88
7'34.93
12'59.31
26'55.88
59'00
to
53.00 / 2"02'00
->
1'50.88
3'36.19
7'30.67
12'53.59
26'48.16
58'52
& these are far from generous as M distance really is too far beyond human's ideal physiological distance which can be seen from 1/2M estimate
no way was Eliud only in 58'50 shape in berlin, much more like 58'00 - 58'15
err...
yes, that is what i & calculator always use
Eliud had likely 52/53 speed at 5k peak but now 53/54 seems more like it
i don't believe his speed has dropped much
no way though is he only in 3'42 or 7'43 shape & 13'10 is not likely either
yes
but for umpteenth time, any distance runner has a finite 400 & 800 speed at whatever current shape they are in for whatever their speciality distance is - 1500 or 3k or 5k ... or M
you can use that 400/800 speed to estimate their ability at any intermediate distance & for your norweigian, he can currenly go 27'15 - 27'20 if you put him in a fast sustained pace run from gun to bell NOT 27'45 pace to 9k & hope for the best, but 27'15 - 27'20 pace from the gun to finish
no
i am talking with NO specific training for 1500/3k/5k/10k but off his current 1/2M training if he got into fast sustained shorter distance races, we shoud be ooking in perfect race at 3'40++/13'10/27'15 - 27'20
you forget yourself that very few races nowdays on track have fast sustained pace from gun
your own boys Cherono ran 12'48 in 1st serious 5k beating hicham & if quicker pace 3 - 4k, he wouda been looking at 12'42 - 12'45 that day or Kemboi who ran 26'30 in his 1st serious 10k with 1'23 last 600, all because he got fast sustained pace from gun - finish, he probably was in 26'20 shape that day as even the pace that day to 9400 was far too slow for him
similarly, you are never going to test the limits of this norweigan by telling him to only go at 27'45 pace throughout & try to kick in last lap but tell him to go for 27'15 from gun & wear a watch & monitor his splits
you don't know limits until you try to explore them from the gun !
all i'm saying theoretically, if he was as good at M as he is at 1/2M with his speed profile which is of very slow 400/800 but far more importantly very slow speed decay, his M potential is currently at limit of 2"03+...