BYU or NAU?

If both teams bring their 'A' game, I think NAU beats BYU by 20+ points at NCAAs. Of course, on any given day...

Bucknam also thinks that there should be a third national relay meet in April, so should we really consider his opinion on this matter?

NAU takes it all. BYU finishes 4th. You heard it here first.

Boo Pig wrote:

Bucknam also thinks that there should be a third national relay meet in April, so should we really consider his opinion on this matter?

NAU takes it all. BYU finishes 4th. You heard it here first.

Correct. Please disregard anything Bucknam says.

Unclear wrote:

BYU has atleast 2 in the top 10 and three guys to pick from for that 2nd guy in the top ten. Clayton had a bad race and was still 12th today. If you go head to head I see it this way:

1) rory Linkletter

2) Matthew Baxter

3) Andy Truard

4) Connor Mcmillan

5) Tyler Day

6) clayton Young

7) Casey Clinger

8) Danny Carney

9) Geordie Beamish

10) Jon Harper

11) Luis Grijalva

BYU 26

NAU: 30

First of all, Linkletter’s hair is silly.

Secondly, Linkletter would be the #4 runner on NAU. Baxter, Trouard, and Day will all beat him at NCAAs.

First of all, Linkletter’s hair is silly.

Secondly, Linkletter would be the #4 runner on NAU. Baxter, Trouard, and Day will all beat him at NCAAs.

?

Linkletter won silver at NCAA 10,000m

When and how did he/will he lose so much fitness?

Fghhjjjjj wrote:

First of all, Linkletter’s hair is silly.

Secondly, Linkletter would be the #4 runner on NAU. Baxter, Trouard, and Day will all beat him at NCAAs.

?

Linkletter won silver at NCAA 10,000m

When and how did he/will he lose so much fitness?

It was a weak field... One of the weakest 10,000 fields in a few years. How would he have placed in the 10,000 field from 2010-2015? He would've been lucky to be top 8.

He didn't lose fitness though, he's still fit and will place well; but Baxter was only 5s behind him when Rory won silver. Trouard ran 13:36 at USAs. Day has a 10,000 PR faster than Rory's.

NAU will be ready to go back to back, they won't let BYU stop them.

Obviously anything can happen, but if both teams run their best, NAU has it.

BYU had a big day at pre-nats, sure. But keep in mind, Colorado was 2nd without Dressel, and a few of their guys faded really hard. Good day overall, but I wouldn't say they ran that well. Oregon was 3rd without Maton. Idk wtf Arkansas was doing. VA Tech is solid but probably not a podium team, and same with Ole Miss. NAU's competition was incredibly stronger. I know people are comparing times and merging races (thanks FloTrack) but it's really hard to make that comparison cleanly, each race is so different with so many different factors. Appreciate the effort though, it's fun to look at and it's important to consider.

I think NAU wins it. I think BYU is a podium team but not a lock for 2nd.

The most important thing I saw Friday/Saturday: NAU's 1-3 running with Knight and Fisher all the way to the end.

Dear lord. That should terrify anyone.

RedBloodSells wrote:

First of all, Linkletter’s hair ...

It was a weak field... One of the weakest 10,000 fields in a few years. How would he have placed in the 10,000 field from 2010-2015? He would've been lucky to be top 8.

He didn't lose fitness though, he's still fit and will place well; but Baxter was only 5s behind him when Rory won silver. Trouard ran 13:36 at USAs. Day has a 10,000 PR faster than Rory's.

NAU will be ready to go back to back, they won't let BYU stop them.

Ok, I don't doubt that NAU will win

However your claim that Linkletter will be beat by 3 NAU guys is bold.

We will see in a couple of months

Supertramp wrote:

My money is on NAU

1.) They have the experience from last year.

2.) 10K suits their guys much more.

3.) BYU has a habit of fading late in the year and not having a great showing at Nattys.

But the only thing I’m sure of is that the real winners will be the fans. This should be epic come November.

This.

BYU's pattern is definitely to start the year super fit and strong. This seems to be partly a function of their team dynamic (very deep large team with a lot of internal competition). Stanford (in a bad way) and Colorado (in a good way) have shown that it doesn't always pay to start off the year hard and a strategy that ignores the regular season and focuses on Nationals can be very successful. That doesn't mean that BYU will blow up and do terrible at Nats, just that it is hard to keep peak fitness over a long XC season and they won't be quite a sharp as they are right now come nats.

Agree. BYU does tend to fade. However, their slightly reduced team in November might still be better than NAUs. Just think about their 17-second spread for 3-4 minutes. And Clinger’s still a wild card.

Some of the NAU observations shared here fall flat with me. Going 3-5 "right behind Fisher and Knight" means very little when the pace of the race is so slow. The fact that such a race spread out their pack, conversely, should be a bit concerning. Additionally, the fact that an aggressive race at Pre-Nats 'only' generated a 17-second spread for BYU (with their 6th and 7th not far off) impresses.

I just get the feeling that it's going to come down to which team's freshman phenom does better on game day. Luis G has more impressive PRs than Casey C, but Casey has two individual NXN titles to his name. Neither has raced the 10K distance so it'll be up to their coaches to coax that out of them.

As others have said, BYU does have a history of coming out of the gates 'hot' and fading at Nationals. It sounds like they recognize that and want to correct it, whatever that means.

All told, I'd say BYU has the current, SLIGHT advantage over NAU. Can they hold on? Can NAU's 'first-year' coach repeat? Do Arkansas, Oregon, Stanford, and Colorado pull some things together to affect that landscape? We'll find out. Nothing is ever sorted out in October.

Am I the only one to realize NAUs 5th man from last year has been on the bench building fitness from injury?

Cory Glines (13:58 /29:04), 2016 Big Sky Conference 10k champ.

Add him to their top 7 come Nattys and that's a solid 7 for NAU. Full strength Glines or not, I'd take him.

I think with the experience that NAU have, NAU have the slight advantage as right now. NAU 1-4 race nationals last year, And their fifth men freshman is improving with every race. I also believe NAU tend to pick for nationals. Also, we have to consider the return of their fifth man from last year. Corey is a good runner with 13:58 and 29:04 PR. If he is back to where he was from last year, he will be the 4th man, which gives them the advantage. With all of that said, BYU have very deep and strong team, and can win nationals on any type of race. It will all come down to how both teams handle the 10km distance. 8km is a good distance but how many times have we seen a team losing a national title on the last 2km? so many time, a great example will be NAU team losing to Colorado by like 20 point in 2014. So who ever hold better the last 2km will win nationals.

10k pbs

1-7 in order of place at Wisco

Andy Trouard N/A 10K,(middle distance guy mostly slow pace suited him well in this race 3:38 1500 pr)

Tyler Day 28:46

Matt Baxter 28:48

Geordie Beamish 30:51(18 sec back from Matt already more than BYU in a faster race 1-5)

Luis Grijalva N/A(also more of a middle d guy, 24 sec 1-5 spread)

Peter Lomong N/A(1:52 800, 10 flat 3200{better now ofc at distance} not a 10k guy)

Ryan Wolff N/A(no apparent strength based off times, 2:10 back...)

BYU 10K pbs, 1-7 at pre nats *[runners +|- after 5k split]

Rory Linkletter 28:58(2nd NCAA chmaps 10k)[+8]

Connor Mcmillan 29:13[=]

Casey Clinger N/A(strong across the board in HS)[+7]

Clayton Young 28:45[+1]

Danny Carney N/A (solid middle D guy 14 flat 5k, 17 seconds back of Rory)[+6]

Jon Harper 30:51 (middle d guy)[-1]

Brayden McLelland 30:24(only 40 seconds back 1-7)[-17]

Brayden McLelland was the only BYU runner that fell back during the race, everyone else moved up spots or stayed about the same

I think that BYU may have peaked already, and will have nowhere to go but down. Conversely, Portland will continue to improve - as they almost always do for NCAA's, and will bring up guys 3-7. Having said that, I think BYU will still win conference, but Portland will lay back a bit and finish on the podium at nationals!!!

FastPast50 wrote:

I think that BYU may have peaked already, and will have nowhere to go but down. Conversely, Portland will continue to improve - as they almost always do for NCAA's, and will bring up guys 3-7. Having said that, I think BYU will still win conference, but Portland will lay back a bit and finish on the podium at nationals!!!

According to this Rob Conner interview, it seems that he has no interest in wining his conference meet.

This guy has no idea what he's talking about.

BYU is very good this year, but so is NAU. You painted NAU with no real background.

For starters Andy Trouard has run a 5k in 13:36.

Geordie Beamish has run 13:53 for 5k.

Luis Grijalva has run 8:45 for 3200m in high school, and is adapting well to the longer distance. He will struggle come 10k, but I'm sure the NAU coach is aware of that and is building his mileage accordingly.

Peter Lomong has run 1:48 for 800m in high school, not 1:52. He's is not a strength guy, but neither was his brother Lopez Lomong who Lopez placed 3rd at NCAA Xc his senior year.

Cory Glines is someone you failed to mention(sub14, 29flat) He will be in their top 7 come Nationals, not Ryan Wolff.

7000' > 4200'

That holds true even if BYU gets to run it's entire 73 man roster.

did mess up Lomong's PR

i was mainly comparing these two races though Cory had nothing to do with it, i cant find the splits for Wisco but Luis and Geordie went back the last 2k

Trouard is better at 5k and down he will still be top 10-20 range at nats, but that race suited him better

I don't think ive misconstrued any facts here, itll be a close race but i think BYU is a bit better