Is Galen Rupp a 2:05 Guy? Wejo, Rojo and You Debate

I like how it's okay to adjust my PRs for how hot or windy it was. I'm a lot faster now, thanks!

Rupp is a 10 guy, as they say, and will never be a 6 guy or better. He'll run 10 or so Sunday, then do a lesser spring marathon (maybe), then possibly NYC in the fall, but both or either of those will be a 10. Then he'll finally realize he's too old. They started too late, and were too patient. Dude should have gotten into London last spring. It's just too late for him, sorry to say.

Nice debate.

Very few sensible people would argue that Rupp is much better than his PR...of course he is. Very few sensible people would also argue that Rupp is a 2:03 guy...of course he isn't. At least not now. The sensible debate is where he fits in between 2:04 and 2:07. I would say somewhere in the middle, 2:05 - 2:06, which means anything under 2:07 would be Ok and sub-2:05 would be outstanding. With that said, its likely Rupp will only run 2:07 on Sunday because that's how the race will likely play out. With no rabbits and finishing temps likely in the mid-70s, Chicago is probably not going to be a fast race. I see Rupp running a low 2:07 or high 2:06 and finishing 3rd or 4th. Except for the Rupp naysayers, people will be disappointed, but you could take Sunday's race and put it in Paris or Berlin and I could see Rupp running 2:05 and perhaps the race being won in 2:03.

Btw, a 10K PR does give you some sense of marathon capability. I would expect a sub-4 miler with the proper training to be capable of running a sub-14 5000, albeit, I would not assume he's capable of a 13:30 5000. The fact that Rupp has a faster 10K than some 2:02 athletes does not mean he's capable of running 2:02. However, an athlete with a 26:44 10K PR has done 20-mile training runs at 2:09 marathon pace, therefore its foolish to think Rupp on a flat course is not at least capable of 2:07. Rojo pointed out how many fast 10K athletes who never ran a fast marathon. I can easily turn that around and say look at how many men like Geb, KB, Tergat, Nicholas Kemboi and Eliud Kipchoge who have fast track PRs and ran fast marathons. I will also add that a few of those fast marathoners with modest track credentials are athletes who focused primarily on the roads. Also, there's a couple of athletes who kind of came from out of nowhere, ran some fast track times for 3-4 years and kind of disappeared and then reappeared in a marathon, but at that point they were not the same athlete. Ahmad Abdullah is one such athlete, he only had a 3 year career on the track and ran an amazing 26:38 10,000. Abdullah's marathon PR is 2:08, but that was almost a decade later and he was no where near the athlete who ran 26:38 10,000.

...I tend to think the glass is halfway between half full and half empty

LetsRun.com wrote:

The usually mild mannered Wejo said, "It's fair to say he's at least capable of 2:05".

Full article here:

The Brojos are in agreement Rupp is way better than a 2:09 guy.

http://www.letsrun.com/news/2017/10/letsrun-debates-fast-can-galen-rupp-run-26-2-sundays-chicago-marathon/

Sure he is capable of 2:05 performance. He really has not been on super fast course as of yet. Some may say Boston is fast, but you have to have the fast tailwind day with exceptional conditions, he didn't have that.

Chicago, Berlin, London etc. we know the fast ones, sub 2:05 courses.

His track ability will help him, running the road races he has been doing will help and lest not forget the Nike team of Physiologists etc that can help him with a better marathon training plan, fueling plan etc.

Ideally if he would have given it a shot in his mid 20's he would have been there, but that also may have pounded the legs out for his track medals and fast times.

The rest of us who pay taxes wrote:

I like how it's okay to adjust my PRs for how hot or windy it was. I'm a lot faster now, thanks!

Rupp is a 10 guy, as they say, and will never be a 6 guy or better. He'll run 10 or so Sunday, then do a lesser spring marathon (maybe), then possibly NYC in the fall, but both or either of those will be a 10. Then he'll finally realize he's too old. They started too late, and were too patient. Dude should have gotten into London last spring. It's just too late for him, sorry to say.

Rupp is not too old of course. But he could need a new way of reaching 2.05.

Had been interesting to see what would happen with the new coach js in charge.

Come on guys!!!!

U.S. Olympic Trials

Boston

Rio

All the above were less than ideal marathon conditions. Put him on a flat-fast course with decent weather conditions and he's easily a 2:05-2:06 guy.

Why does RoJo have this fundamental belief that someone who has run the 1500 3:33 or faster (or ~3:50 mile), doesn't have the physiology to run 2:05 or faster? Lawd, that speed just kills Eluid Kipchoge! I mean the guy has never even broken 2:03... well at least without stickers on his legs and a Tesla in front of him.

I'm probably the least knowledgeable poster in this thread but it seems here are the facts:

Rupp was an amazing miler/5k/10k/2-miler/etc track athlete

Rupp is no longer capable of those amazing track times. How far has he slipped? I dont know. I dont know what to make of his most recent 10k US championship race where he got outkicked. Maybe it means nothing. Maybe it means something

He's run some tough races but has barely broken 2:10 once

He's been getting injured lately [??], no idea what to take from that. Maybe everything is fine. Maybe it's not.

I'd wait for race day but it seems to me that 2:07:nn would be a tremendous accomplishment. Could he be faster? Sure. Do we have any evidence of that capability? Not that I'm aware of.

Not sure if we can take anything away from leaked workouts/heart rate data/tempo run/potential marketing fluff.

My guess: 2:07:nn right now in ideal conditions

Rupp is at LEAST a 2:03 guy. Remember when he tempoed that double-quarter-mary turkey trot at full 'thon GOAL PACE??

How about this prediction..Galen Rupp runs over half hour faster than every person posting on this thread..

Going off his recent 1/2 marathon and depending on the weather, 2:08-2:10. He hasn't run to his potential in the marathon, but he hasn't really had good weather either. He seems to be in decent shape, increasing the pace in the second half of the 1/2m was a good sign, until the heat got to him, but I agree with others, he is past his prime and I do not expect anything blazing in his marathon future.

No, simply because he hasn't come close to it. Speculation is on thing but delivery is another.

On a side note, if Rupp is a 2:05 guy, Mo has to be at least a 2:03 guy!

I agree Devil Dog......the reason he will medal @ least once more in a major championship is because he is a championship racer. The Berlin Marathon, Diamond League rabbited races are not his forte, although he can be in the mix in a Berlin or London style marathon. He has a 2:05 or better in him and is still new to the marathon.

I know I am gonna get a crap ton of criticism for this but one thing is being "capable of 2:05" and another thing is "he is a 2:09 guy"

That he is capable of running 2:06- 2:05? In paper: YES.

The REALITY and FACTS are he is a 2:09-2:10 guy based on his ACTUAL marathon performances, those are facts, not speculation based on his sub 27:00 10k.

Once he breaks into the 2:06-2:05 club, then we are talking.

Good luck to him.

2.05 for 800m maybe

I think if there will be someone who can risk and do something like pacing he can run really fast.Kenya's here like Abel Kirui and Bernard Kipyego are really in good shape.Galen Rupp should be smart in his running this guys can destroy the game plan by either start slow and end it fast or start quick and end it differently.

I think if there will be someone who can risk and do something like pacing he can run really fast.Kenya's here like Abel Kirui and Bernard Kipyego are really in good shape.Galen Rupp should be smart in his running this guys can destroy the game plan by either start slow and end it fast or start quick and end it differently.

Rupp's last "balls out" 10,000 was a 27:08 (fifth place) in a hot and humid Olympic final only 14 months ago. His splits were something like like 13:53 and 13:15 and he was dropped only in the last lap. He won a Bronze in the marathon a week later. I think this suggests that he is not years removed from his peak.

except for.....

On April 1, 2017, Rupp finished 11th in the Prague half marathon, finishing in 1:01:59....yeah let me guess it was tactical and hot and blah blah blah...11th guys 11th and you know what 62 for a half comes out to what?? wait for it, 2:09-11 marathon according to all the calculators, and well thats what ruppy poop runs

On April 17, 2017, Rupp finished second in the 2017 Boston Marathon with a time of 2:09:58, see almost 3 weeks later he runs what you would predict. why go run a 62 for 11th place? unless you arnt trying to WIN...he should have tried to do a 59 mid to low and then he would have come into boston a heavy favorite, instead he just showed up a high % medal contender

dont forget sometime around May things GOT super hot and heavy for sal and NOP, but they had gotten him off the sauce way earlier, like when he "dropped" out of the houston half....this is when he went from 27 low guy to 28 low guy, but who wants to listen to me.

you would think a guy who can run 27 LOW should have won boston REGARDLESS....he has way faster PRs at every distance than half and full....but you would think since ruppy poop has faster PRs at the shorter distances he should beat kirui....well he was off the sauce and is now a 28 low guy and so kirui is naturally faster....

portland track festival, a nice reality that you guys dont want to listen to...28:18.29, and barely WON....like i said off the sauce he is a 28 low guy, no longer 53 second 400 kick, and cant break 4....but but but it was tactical, it was hot, it was not certified...there was no rabbits, he didnt have his mask, he was getting bashed on LR...blah blah blah

next, US champs, ruppy poop 5th in....29:05, a slow jog fest to a last few hard laps and 55 was the last 400, and got all but hurt and ran away from the media....ruppy poop used to close in 53 in faster races then do a hard workout after...INDOORS. but like i said he is off the sauce and 28 low guy at best. but but but he is training through, but he is on marathon pacing regiment....excuses from you rupp lovers, yet you will say he can run 2:05 cause of his 26:44!?

how the hell can you use his 26:44 as this calculo/vent based prediction when dude is 5th in a 29 low 10k and its because he has no speed? if he has no speed, then he isnt 26:44 anymore...deer f*cking god you guys are idiots

next...2017 USATF 20K Championships, 59:04

barely won again by just 1 second...but but he is training through, its hot, its this its that, he doesnt have the speed....blah blah blah, so thats 29:30 pace for 10k, and as you could see he was MAXED out and won by a c*nt hair. also you f*ck twits, thats the exact pace for what? wait here it comes....62:18 for a half...again what you would expect for a 28 low 10 guy maxed the f*ck out....62 maxed out means 64-65 at half, and gives you a 2:09-11 kinda guy...but what i thought he was a 2:05 guy?!?!!?

http://www.flotrack.org/article/61234-galen-rupp-defeats-leonard-korir-at-usatf-20k-champs-jordan-hasay-wins#.WdeXE2hSy70

look at his face, foam and spit and all that...def what you would expect a 2:05 guy to look like after running 29:30 pace for less than a half...yeah ok guys

next...how the F*CK do it do it? what was his result at the philly half? oh thats right hahahahahahahahaha 62:18, and this article is classic

http://www.flotrack.org/article/61811-rupp-hasay-look-to-tune-up-for-chicago-at-blazing-fast-philly-rnr-half#.WdeWn2hSy70

claimed it was blazing fast course and rupp should have been looking to better his sauce era days PR of a lame 61:42, but he isnt on the sauce anymore so 62:18 was the best he could do, why? cause thats all you can expect from a 28 low guy

I've never been a fan of truncating more than 30 seconds in the marathon, but I guess Wejo means Rupp could run 2:05:59.99. I think it is more accurate to say sub-2:06, if that's what you mean to say.I wrote this in the "What do Kenyans think about Rupp?" thread:

Will he do it in Chicago? Chicago doesn't have pacers, but it looks like it will have four or five guys capable of taking it out fast enough to run a winning time of sub-2:06. The weather forecast for the morning looks like 59-65 degrees F in the morning, which is not ideal but not too hot. The pollen levels (ragweed, grass, and tree) will be low, so if they race is won in sub-2:06, if Rupp is a 2:05-guy, a healthy Rupp shouldn't have any excuse