You know, they might NOT break the World Record on Sunday...

TrackCoach wrote:

I'm having trouble finding the list, but someone mentioned that Mutai is in the race. Can someone confirm this. If so, I wonder why he's not being talked about.

Which Mutai? I thought both Geoffrey and Emmanuel have looked well past their best in recent years?

oddschecker wrote:

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/athletics/Berlin-Marathon

6/5 = worth a punt.

6/4 odds that they don’t break WR... incredible odds

And you can construct 10/6 that either WK or KB win... pretty solid too

The first is probably best... getting 2.5x your money (someone correct me if I’m wrong there, not entirely sure of presentation of odds) that they don’t break the WR is so so good

Too bad it is illegal from the US

I drink Calpis wrote:

driss dacha wrote:

due to weather condition,other stuff WR will not set on Sunday

as former elite marathon runner /running analyst ,i predicted before marathons winners like kipchoge before he raced them chicago ,london and berlin than after he won them ,sorry he will not win this time;aftr cheking his practices some thing told me it wil not be his day the key world sorry alphabet word start M, after race will explain this M ,other stuffs,others runners hard to choice one unless bekele mesadventure on sunday ,i guess kipsang will be dark horse ,unbelievable endurace w/constant pace as well shaving stride,will see on sunday ,one other thing race will start 4 them at 35 k,

LOL!! What?!?

M is monza you don't have to explain it. The 2 hour project

Kipsang fan wrote:

HardLoper wrote:

This poll doesn't represent betting odds. 93% of people could believe there's a 60% chance of a WR, for instance.

I *almost* mentioned this in the original post! It's a great point, but given that 60% thought that not only would the WR be broken, but that it would be broken by 28+ seconds. If that's your best guess, you've gotta put the WR chances at 75% (or more).

You know this goes as we have seen how how many time before.

Pacers get things going on pace, they get a little ahead of pace, race slows slightly, the fall off pace and finish outside the world record. Always the hype out performs the actual race.

Its 50/50 at best. Think about the number of attempts and the times its actually happened. its far less than 50/50. This time around you have the right group of guys, a new mind set from the sub 2 attempt.

Lets hope for something special.

Jersey shooorah wrote:

I'm really hoping they'll all race each other to the end and break it...but what happens around mile 20 when all 3 of them are in the race? They start looking at each other, conserving for a kick and the world record attempt fizzles. Again I hope that's not the case!

Also, why would they want to destroy the record anyway? If these guys were smart hey would break it by a few seconds which would allow them to break it again come spring, and possibly break it again next year in Berlin. Think about the $$$$ bonus each gets for breaking the WR...wouldn't YOU want to get it more than once?

What happens at mile 20? Kipchoge mashes the gas; that's what.

it is raining right now in Berlin and could possibly also rain tomorrow. That could ruin the party. And btw party, I spotted Kipsang tonight dancing at the Berghain, full of Keta, so he is out.

;) In the USA we call Chum Salmon a species of anadromous fish in the salmon family. It is a Pacific salmon, and may also be known as dog salmon or keta salmon, and is often marketed under the name silverbrite salmon.

. so say Wikipedia

The average winning time over the last 10 years is 2:04:05. Why the hell would the most likely winning time be >2:04:00 when you have the 3 best racing, 2 of which said they are at 100%?

Not to mention, look at their last 10 marathons.

So basically you are saying the weather is why the most likely is over 2:04. Clearly you are nuts.

it doesn't rain anymore, the air is good and fresh, I think it's back on.

Kipchoge: 2:02:49

Kipsang: 2:03:14

Bekele: 2:03:31

My prediction: 2:03:10 to 2:03:30 whoever wins except Berkeley, I don't see him breaking WR anytime soon. Kipchoge comes from that 2:00:25 time trial, it should take a toll on him. That leaves Kipsanga at around the aforementioned time.

OP, I'm pretty sure you're simply failing to understand the difference between a poll and a probabilistic model. If 93% of people think that a world record is the most likely outcome (even if they think it's about a 30-40% chance for instance), they will probably choose that outcome.

Maybe you disagree that a WR is the most likely outcome, which is fine, but my point is that this is NOT the same as us thinking there is a 93% chance of a WR.

you called it

Looks like only 1% of LRC po(ll)sters have a clue.

Trump2020OP-the real one wrote:

They might not set the record, but I'll be going for trolling thread post record on the live Berlin LRC thread. I've already set my alarm clock for 1:00 am. Was going to play, nice, but all bets are off since my Berlin Pre- Race coverage request to the brojos was deleted. ...

Ah, if that was your motivation your effort was lacking and the execution did not connect.

Try harder

Donyiyo wrote:

My prediction: 2:03:10 to 2:03:30 whoever wins except Berkeley, I don't see him breaking WR anytime soon. Kipchoge comes from that 2:00:25 time trial, it should take a toll on him. That leaves Kipsanga at around the aforementioned time.

Well, I was right about the winning time but wrong about Kipchoge. They guy is definitely THE goat.

Too often we act as though the world record is a cream puff. And same with the American record (don't get me started on the LD records for Ethiopia and Kenya). They are records. Best ever done by a human being. They get broken, yes, but not easily, not even with great effort and training. And for a marathon you have to factor in so many more things. Weather for sure. And that fact that one has few attempts to make at that distance but the top folks have to commit early on. And then, no matter who they are, they have to avoid LR where so many of them are put down (recently Bekele, as if after his running career he needs any excuses, and of course Rupp on the national level). Record. Hard to break. Stop thinking otherwise. Great to see, like Eaton's record at the Olympic Trials, but rarely easy and never assured. Record. Treat it like the supreme pinnacle it is. Hope for it, but stop predicting it like it's that simple. Okay, off my soap box and back to my fandom of running. (Never an elite runner but 12 marathons, many lessons therein, and quite a fan of elite runners).

Thanks!

But that's the thing about probabilities -- you never know when you're right after the fact. Looking at how the race played out, I may have underestimated Kipchoge (and Adola -- holy %$^!) The conditions may have been worse than forecast, so perhaps Kipchoge (or Adola -- holy %$^!) would have broken the WR under the forecast conditions.

A couple of other posters have made the very good points that 93% of votes does not equate to 93% probability -- if we all had the same information, in a way we'd expect 100% to all vote for the same thing. But people tend not to be that uniform, so 93% really shows a strong consensus for something that was uncertain at best.

What we SHOULDN'T conclude is that "oh, we should have known that Kipchoge would run 2:03-mid, and of course Kipsang and Bekele would drop out." But what I think is clear is that these things were not exotic possibilities. If you voted for the high-2:02 choice, and realized that the race could play out in many different ways, then I really don't have an issue with your vote since this was clearly also a strong possibility going in.