Up Runner wrote:
The bottom line is that Kipchoge is the only one to have beaten both the others, has the 2:00:25, and everyone considers his London race this spring as the best effort of all-time (would have been 2:02:3x in Berlin). It's his race to lose.
As far as the record, normally I would agree that the three will run too tactically, but for Bekele and Kipchoge, a tactical 2:02:30 is in their wheelhouse. 2:01:5x in an even-paced race with great pacemakers, which Berln is great with finding. Plus Kipsang has to push the pace to have a hope to win.
85% chance of WR.
85% that there will be no WR. That is the way it is when races are hyped up to break the WR, except with women. If they say they are going to get a WR, that s h i t usually happens.
And kipsang does not need a fast, fast pace to drop the other two. He can do that in the last 6 miles like he has done before. You're over thinking it. 20 miles of running is going to be focused on dropping most of the elite runners, and the real race will start with about 6-7 miles to go. That is the kenyan way,.
Kipsang and Bekele are both 35, and bekele is injury prone, so time is on Kipchoge's side( on paper).
I think we can all agree is that in the final mile of the race, if bekele or kichoge is still there, kipsang does not really stand a chance.