I've heard the cut line will be BQ - 1:57
I've heard the cut line will be BQ - 1:57
garbage in garbage out wrote:
That link you posted with # qualifiers doesn't include C.I.M! No way C.I.M. 2016 wasn't a top 25 qualifier. Garbage in, garbage in.
The findmymarathon link was for 2017 races since I think the OP was referencing the # of BQs in 2017 Boston. CIM is in December.
Here is the link to 2016 races with CIM. CIM 2016 would be in the 2018 qualifying window as would 2017 Boston.CIM 2016 had the 4th most BQs and 22.9% qualified.
http://findmymarathon.com/mostbostonmarathonqualifiers-2016.phpI read on another thread the cutoff could be -3:30 or more. The demand is huge. I think they are right. It's taking way longer to get confirmations this year.
The organizers have no interest in fostering potentially serious marathoners.
Why else would the qualifying time for young males be around 3 hours flat, a time achieved by less than 2% of marathon finishers. Young males are not the only group to make marathoning a life-style but they are definitely the most likely cohort and have always been so for the history of the big marathons.
A qualifying time for male 55-59, my age group, is a strolling 3:40 which is far easier than a 3:00 would have been back when I was a whipper-snapper.
True, 8:20 pace for a 55 year old man is very doable.
7:05 pace for a 30 year old man is much more difficult.
i would support a standard of 3:05 for everybody under 40 and 3:30 for everybody over 40.
Okay, but what's your prediction?
My BQ last year was a 3:43 i've been a runner since i was a kid, i'll tell you right now I would of never ran a 3:02-3:03 back when I was in my prime and admit the standards are slanted and messed up. 3:02-3:03 range is in the top 1.08% of all marathoners.
Boston Q wrote:
My BQ last year was a 3:43 i've been a runner since i was a kid, i'll tell you right now I would of never ran a 3:02-3:03 back when I was in my prime and admit the standards are slanted and messed up. 3:02-3:03 range is in the top 1.08% of all marathoners.
Do you have a source for the 1.08%? I've been wondering how my time compares on a percentile basis.
I looked at last December.
27 marathons (not counting the savage series)
595 sub 3 hour marathons out of 22,079 finishers. 2.7%.
But CIM has an amazing 372 sub 3s out of 3336.
Take out CIM and December was 223 sub 3s out of 18,743. 1.2%.
The average marathon time got faster as technology and training information improved, then got slower as more mid packers started to run marathons.
Clearly the average finishing time has drifted up over the last 20 years.
A yearly total of 50,000 marathon finishers has a larger percent being the cream of the crop.
500,000 marathon finishers has a lot of hobby joggers included.
But it's all good. 450,000 additional paying runners boosts race fees, and they need shoes and gear, and the numbers generate publicity. Let the money flow.
In this documentary it is mentioned that in 1985 Britain had 180 sub 2:20 marathoners. In 2005 it had 5. (at the 50 second mark)
Some of it is their best athletes are in other sports (soccer),
A busy world is full of sedentary pursuits.
And running marathons is not where the money is at, unless you are the one in a million.
shazzbat beauregard wrote:
dude what wrote:I don't really understand the qualifying process anyway. The qualifying standards are fairly respectable for hobby joggers, yet every year there are thousands of fat asses on the course slogging out 5-6 hour marathons. Like how did they get into the race but a 30 year old who ran 3:04 did not?
Masters runners - the times are semi-arbitrary and not based on actual age graded times
Charity runners, about 20% of the field get in by raising money for charities
20% get in without a BQ. Fundraisers comprise just 9-10%. The rest are comp entries.
A lot of that is because of short courses in the good old days.
Prediction thread wrote:
Okay, but what's your prediction?
Well I just got accepted at 8:08 below the qualifying time, so less than that.
As of 6 pm yesterday , it looks like 3:51 is the cut off. However, the committee may DQ all Mexico City entries and add 1,000 BQ times.
Deep mole source wrote:
As of 6 pm yesterday , it looks like 3:51 is the cut off. However, the committee may DQ all Mexico City entries and add 1,000 BQ times.
Looks like BAA has a leak, huh?
How could they know the cutoff before the people apply in the next section?
My prediction was BQ-4:00, higher than any of the RW thread predictions. They are all predicting BQ-2:XX or lower.
Demand's higher than ever.
3:51 interesting wrote:
How could they know the cutoff before the people apply in the next section?
My prediction was BQ-4:00, higher than any of the RW thread predictions. They are all predicting BQ-2:XX or lower.
Demand's higher than ever.
Not based on the large number of applicants In the first two
Rounds??? Trust me 3:51.
Trust me 3:51
What data is this prediction based on? Sorry, I can't locate this in the thread
It will absolutely be less than 2 minutes.
jfwmarathon wrote:
Trust me 3:51
What data is this prediction based on? Sorry, I can't locate this in the thread
Lolz bro
The final cut off will be based on how many people apply. You don't know what that number is yet. Any predictions are pointless.