can't underestimate the psychological effect of Kipchoge running that aided 2:00:25 marathon. I expect a big drop in the marathon world record. Of course, you never know whether they are healthy in great shape, because they'll only tell you they were injured, etc. after the race.
you do realize that 2:01:40 is 28:50 10k? 4:38.4 per mile?
to think that stefano baldini ran that exact pace for his half PR, when his best 10k was 27:43. but the year of his half PR his 10k best was only around 28 flat...
so he was able to go only 8 sec slower per mile than his 10k best that year another 10k.
how fast is KB at present in a 10K? my guess is he is faster than 28 flat.
Assuming both of them are in perfect marathon shape (same shape Kipchoge was at sub2). They can go on a track below 27 easily.
Yesterday, Kipchoge was interviewed by the german press and he said he is ready for the world record. He wants to go as low as possible but still, not too fast. He wants a 60:5x - 61:0x pace for the first half if the weather is ideal. The man is on a mission...
Kipsang has been the most quiet, how would that be if he causes an upset.
Upset is all relative. I'm too lazy to search but a 2:03:13 time is like what the 5th best ever? The 3 are separated by 10 seconds in the most unpredictable event. Should be a fantastic race regardless.
Tron wrote:
Jimmy21 wrote:How do you guys know hes had bad build ups? Because thats always his excuse after a dnf?
Unless i'm missing something, he's only had 2 DNFs and i don't think either are because of bad build up. Both being Dubai and this year was because he was trampled at the start and the prior he was injured....so much so it took him an entire year to get back into running
Facts, just shows how good he is running 2:05 is consider the same thing as dropping out for him
grox wrote:
Recently, in Addis Abeba, he tried a new route for his long run and got lost. Three hours later, he found himself in Dakar. Expect great things.
These are great lol
Looking good wrote:
Yesterday, Kipchoge was interviewed by the german press and he said he is ready for the world record. He wants to go as low as possible but still, not too fast. He wants a 60:5x - 61:0x pace for the first half if the weather is ideal. The man is on a mission...
Kipchoge also says in a recent interview he thinks Mo Farah might run 2:01:00-2:01:30 in the next 1-2 years.
He clearly has no idea what he is talking about. Kenenisa will win easily.
Anyone who believes that Kipchoge's 2:00:23 was a game-changer has been hoodwinked by Nike. Virtually the entire difference between the real record of 2:02:57 and Kipchoge's time may can be accounted for by aerodynamics. The pacers (not the car or scoreboard) are believed to have contributed close to a 2% gain in performance over a race paced to around 30K by 2-3 people owing to a diminution of aerodynamic drag.
I'm not saying the WR can't fall, and maybe someone'll run a 2:02:30. But this 2:01:30 talk is horsecrap. KB won't go out fast enough to get this unless he really does plan to drop out or die trying.
hemfaulk wrote:
can't underestimate the psychological effect of Kipchoge running that aided 2:00:25 marathon. I expect a big drop in the marathon world record. Of course, you never know whether they are healthy in great shape, because they'll only tell you they were injured, etc. after the race.
Yes, big breakthru. Not scared of 4:39 pace anymore.
Totally false. wrote:
Laughablemuch wrote:He will be able to draft until at least 25k here too + in the sub2 the last 5k weren't ran with efficient drafting.
The sub2 runners were towed along by a truck with a wind screen in the back, which doesn't happen in legitimate marathons.
You mean you're not going to just take someone who unleashes gems like "the last 5k weren't ran with efficient drafting" at his word?
The psychological impact can be important, that's true. In marathon running, at least 10% it's just about the mind. Kipchoge is not afraid of a 4:40 pace anymore, he expects himself to get under 2:03 everytime he runs a marathon now. At the moment you definitely can't bet against him.
I read an interview with him where he stated that he was targeting wr as well. He said he was in better shape than when he ran the previous wr.
Noah Fentz wrote:
Anyone who believes that Kipchoge's 2:00:23 was a game-changer has been hoodwinked by Nike. Virtually the entire difference between the real record of 2:02:57 and Kipchoge's time may can be accounted for by aerodynamics. The pacers (not the car or scoreboard) are believed to have contributed close to a 2% gain in performance over a race paced to around 30K by 2-3 people owing to a diminution of aerodynamic drag.
I'm not saying the WR can't fall, and maybe someone'll run a 2:02:30. But this 2:01:30 talk is horsecrap. KB won't go out fast enough to get this unless he really does plan to drop out or die trying.
Gosh, how very profound. Yes we know aerodynamics made a big difference, that was the point, we know, you don't need to tell us.
I see two things that will happen:
After the pacers drop out Kipsang will continue to push the pace until 3 miles left where Kipchoge and Bekele have the race of the century down to the finish, Kipchoge ultimately winning in a new WR, or Bekele blows up early on and Kipsang and Kipchoge battle it outx and despite how much I like kipsang, Kipchoge has it and wins, Bekele DNF or 2:05
Either way, Kipchoge has the edge over them. However i think he'll surge ahead just after 35k and it won't be a close call at all. He might win by 40-60 seconds after all.
Man, I want to see Bekele destroy the WR before he retires. Who knows if it'll happen, but it would be
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crosscounts wrote:
oxymoran wrote:Well at 35 he's still young enough to run faster than 2.03. I don't buy that stuff about athletes over 35 losing 1/2% a year or whatever (insert your own imaginary number) I think most people just get lazier or less committed and that's why they get slower very quickly (scuse tha oxymoron)
Isn't it great how he isn't afraid to line up against the best marathon runners?
In 2013 a cyclist named Chris Horner won the Spanish equivalent of the Tour de France at the age of 41. Some people pointed to his age as evidence that he must surely be doped to the max. However, I remember reading some reports in the weeks after his victory proving that ability, especially for an endurance sport like cycling (or maybe running) does not really drop that much after 34 or 35 or whatever barrier you favor. It was shown that, as you say, the biggest difference is that most athletes just don't want to keep going as much as when they were younger. Of course, there are often other factors as well but not significant enough to state "Any athlete over 35 is incapable of competing at the highest level."
I would agree that Bekele may not be at his absolute peak anymore but he's still incredibly strong and its not as if Kipchoge (31 - ish) and Kipsang (35 - ish) are a couple of young guns he has to face.
And I might add that of course Bekele is not afraid to line up against the best marathoners because he is one of the best marathoners himself!
Horner was certainly doped to the max though.
pay slight attention wrote:
If healthy, I think he absolutely can challenge Kipchoge and both of them can run 2:02:15, possibly 2:02:00 if the pacing is dead on. But a real race has surges and the pacesetters drop early (especially if they shoot for 61:00) which complicates things.
I'm hoping Kipsang really goes for it (and he runs evenly) because if the pacers drop before 25-30K than could definetly run 2:02:xx pace until 30-35K.
RIP: D3 All-American Frank Csorba - who ran 13:56 in March - dead
RENATO can you talk about the preparation of Emile Cairess 2:06
Running for Bowerman Track Club used to be cool now its embarrassing
Hats off to my dad. He just ran a 1:42 Half Marathon and turns 75 in 2 months!
Great interview with Steve Cram - says Jakob has no chance of WRs this year
Rest in Peace Adrian Lehmann - 2:11 Swiss marathoner. Dies of heart attack.