4 hour marathon to sub 3?

I went from a 4:20 on no training to a 2:49. Anything is possible, unless you can run a 5:15-5:20 or 17:50 5k / 1:24 half marathon you should be good for a sub3 those are all good predictors.

The real question is can you work your way up from an inconsistent 20-25 mpw max to consistent 60-70mpw for several years. You will undoubtedly see marathon performance jump that may seem inconceivable right now if you can actually follow through, but that's a big if. Running 3 times as many miles isn't just about having 3x as much time, you probably need at least 4x more time, because sleep, foam rolling, rest, eating right, etc. become so much more critical.

That being said, a 6 flat mile if you're well trained for endurance still doesn't reach sub 3. Maybe you can bring that mile time down, but right now you don't have the endurance OR speed for sub-3. Impossible to predict how fast you can go if you triple your workload though.

Anyway, focus on the process of what you can do and let the results follow, instead of focusing on what you have to do to hit a certain result...because that's an unknowable question for any given person.

Probably not, if you are really wired for the short stuff. Get that 5K down closer to 18:00 and 10K around 37:00 before you start dreaming of a sub-3 'thon.

I know someone who has run sub-3 off 39 minutes 10k and 19 minutes 5k

And of course the OP is wired for shorter stuff right now. Look at her mileage.

But I am sure it will change once she puts in the work and runs consistently.

Know anyone that ran a 19 5k off a 6 flat mile PR?

Cue up the douchebag humblebrags of "I went from 5 hrs to 2:30. Of course you can go sub 3. Question is do you really want to?

I have never done a day of sprint training in my life and can run a sub 15 sec 100. Surely that kind of natural speed would indicate 5ish min mile potential which then correlates to 18 min 5k which then correlates to a sub 40 10k which would then correlate to a marathon around 3 hours?

The top end speed is fine, it's the endurance I really struggle with. My enduramce is terrible. A sub 6 mile would be more realistic right now than a sub 49 10k ...

If you are struggling with running a single sub 6 mile, you are going to REALLY struggle with running 26.2 miles at 6:5X pace. Unless you get your mile closer to 5 than 6, you aren't even going to come close.

If you slow as the distance increases then I think it will be very challenging to get to sub3.

Not saying it cannot be done, but you are going to need to do better training and more consistent training.

Also aging will do a number on you although mid20s to mid30s should not see a huge drop in potential.

Hi there,

I ran a 4:12 at LA Marathon last year on running club training peaking about 30-35 mpw. I tried to sub-4 at a 9:00/mile pace but hit the wall bad at mile 20 and dropped to 12-13 min/mile slow jog/shuffle pace. So, I changed my diet around and dropped 33 lbs of fat in the process. I added cross training and HIIT with Orange Theory Fitness. And I started following Hanson's Advanced Marathon plan and now I am peaking at 80 mpw. So, I got my half down to 1:24 and got my BQ in a marathon at 3:09. I will be going for sub-3 at Chicago. So, I think it is definitely possible to go sub-3 but you need to optimize your weight(reduce body fat) through diet, you need to strength train and stretch to prevent injuries, and you need to increase your miles significantly and follow a polarization plan where you do a lot of easy Aerobic miles together with 2-3 quality workouts a week (intervals, tempo, long runs). It won't be easy but I think you can definitely do it if you are willing to put in the work.

I have 19% body fat and a BMI of 19. If My weight went any lower I would feel horrible. I already eat 98% healthy and organic, I basically have to to manage my thyroid disease.

I have never been injured thank goodness. I just need about five years of endurance work but I understand consistency is key, I will need to take extra care with upping milage as the slightest stress on my body will flare my thyroid up and put me out of running as it has done before. That will be my biggest hurdle.

Really annoys me when people tell other people the key is to lose weight when they don't know if that's necessary or not. Everybody's different.

I think it's likely you can get down to a sub-3 marathon if you really train consistently over a long period of time. But since you seem pretty sure that you are naturally better at short distances, why not focus on getting really fast at the 5K and 10K, where you have more talent?

Sounds like your weight and body fat are pretty much optimized. You just need to gradually increase your mileage per week and also do additional strength training and stretching to prevent injuries. Of course you need to be careful of aggravating your thyroid disease so probably should consult with your doctor (preferably the endocrinologist who specializes in thyroid disease) about your plans to be a serious marathoner. Good luck!

30 something male here -

I was basically in the same situation - I ran my 1st marathon back in 2015 in 4:08:00 on roughly the same mileage plus an injury for 2 months during training. Nothing longer than 15 miles in training.

I upped my mileage to about 40 miles with a few 50 mile weeks near the end and 1 20 miler. I ran a 3:24 last year.

This year i'm targeting no slower than a 3:15 marathon in Chicago - following the hanson method. So 50/60 miles a week with 3 targeted workouts.

Also correlating a 100m dash to a marathon performance is dubious. Footspeed is worthless in marathon, most people baulk at even the 5k to marathon conversion. If you want to run 50-60mpw for 5 years just do it and see what happens because it's impossible to predict. If you're only doing it for a shot at sub3 and no other reason I think you'll have trouble putting in the work.

No. And what's your point?

My first marathon was 4:37.

I trained for the second and ran 3:27. Two years later I ran 2:54.

My mileage was 60-70 mpw for 3 months. At that same time I ran a 17:37 5K and a 36:25 10K. The people who said to work on your 5K-10K are probably right. But, it's definitely possible some of us have done it..

My point is usually the people that can make the jump from a 4 hour marathon to a sub 3 marathon can already run a 19-20min 5k and probably a 5:30ish mile when they run the 4 hour marathon, they just need to build up the endurance. I have a friend who went from 20min 5k & 3:55 marathon on 30mpw to sub 18:30 5k and 3:09 marathon in one year when he jumped to >50mpw for a few months. However, that would not have been possible if he couldn't have run one mile under 6 minutes.

With someone running a 6min mile, 22min 5k, and a 4 hour marathon, the point that you know an endurance monster who can run sub 3 of off 19flat is kinda irrelevant. She needs to build up both the speed (as far as "speed" goes in a marathon...not absolute footspeed, but lactate threshold and whatnot) AND aerobic endurance. So you can quibble over she should shoot for 19flat or 18flat in a 5k before going for a 3 hour marathon I guess, but she's got a ways to go either way. Who knows if she's got it in her or not, because 100m doesn't mean much. Heck, to get to a 3hr marathon her 100m time will probably get slower.