Imagine making it to the Olympics and blaming not winning on your teammate that had no real obligation to help you... Ayana was the best in the 10K in Rio--- Vivian would have never won that race.
Imagine making it to the Olympics and blaming not winning on your teammate that had no real obligation to help you... Ayana was the best in the 10K in Rio--- Vivian would have never won that race.
CDA wrote:
Imagine making it to the Olympics and blaming not winning on your teammate that had no real obligation to help you... Ayana was the best in the 10K in Rio--- Vivian would have never won that race.
I disagree. If it were Obiri, they would have caught her like they did at 5000m. Those women are too intelligent, and they know how to race. Running is about tactics, and teammates work together. They went in with a plan, and her teammate panicked
4 women ran under 30 mins
Ayana- 29:17
Viv- 29:32
Dibaba - 29:42
Aprot- 29:53
Aprot went out with Ayana, got dropped and fell farther behind Viv and Dibaba, so she wasted energy and time. Viv, being a very strong runner, maintained her position , and did get faster, but had to work harder, because running by yourself is hard work and tiring. Had Aprot held back, and not freaking out over a 40 meter lead, she would have conserved a lot of energy. Thus - the two of them would have been able to CAP ayana's lead, and would have caught her in the end ...and viv possibly being the one to break the record.
Each one of those runners in the list ran alone, which is why there is a huge disparity in time. 2 runners working together run faster than one runner running alone.
There is no doubt in my mind that Viv would have caught ayana had her and her teammate ran as a tandem.
I love that the only thing you keep repeating is the "cap the distance" nonsense. You do realize that you can't just "cap the distance" on someone running the second half of a 10k in sub 29 min pace like it's easy as making sure you have your spikes double knotted before the race.. You have to be in the necessary shape to do that... Ayana won the 10k by nearly 100m... not just a few seconds. Your saying that you have no doubt Vivian would have beaten Ayana is such an arrogant and unfounded statement. If Vivian had been able to "cap the distance," she would have with or without Aprot. She couldn't because it wasn't physically possible for her, thus she lost.
I think I'm going to have to agree with CDA on this argument.
CDA wrote:
I love that the only thing you keep repeating is the "cap the distance" nonsense. You do realize that you can't just "cap the distance" on someone running the second half of a 10k in sub 29 min pace like it's easy as making sure you have your spikes double knotted before the race.. You have to be in the necessary shape to do that... Ayana won the 10k by nearly 100m... not just a few seconds. Your saying that you have no doubt Vivian would have beaten Ayana is such an arrogant and unfounded statement. If Vivian had been able to "cap the distance," she would have with or without Aprot. She couldn't because it wasn't physically possible for her, thus she lost.
Funny, Obiri and Viv did just that at 5000m . They capped distance, ran their race, and caught her in the end. They didn't let the lead get bigger than about 40m. So that same strategy isn't possible at 10000m?
And you know more than VIv, who said the same thing? Just saying she is a World Class Athlete, and she knows her ability. ....and again she did the strategy at 5000m.
So had she had a teammate to work with, instead of Ayana winning by 100m, the lead stays at 40m, and she gets caught in the end....
So there is a reason that I keep saying CAP - because that is the TACTIC!
scorpion_runner wrote:
They didn't let the lead get bigger than about 40m. So that same strategy isn't possible at 10000m?
It isn't possible when they can't limit the lead to less than 40m, as was the case.
stryker drilling wrote:
scorpion_runner wrote:They didn't let the lead get bigger than about 40m. So that same strategy isn't possible at 10000m?
It isn't possible when they can't limit the lead to less than 40m, as was the case.
Bingo. He acts like they can simply choose how big the gap grows.
Kid running after kipchoge wrote:
Ayana's only chance was to run a WR pace, but a stupid first 2 pedestrian laps cost her the race.
Exactly. I didn't see this thread yesterday or I would have posted the same thing here.
Ayana didn't necessarily need world record pace but she needed 69 or 70 every lap from the outset and then lower it somewhat. Force Obiri to run a time she has never proven capable of doing.
Regardless, I love the geniuses who doubt Almaz Ayana. That's the mindset that allowed me to bet Ayana at +110 odds in the 10,000 when earlier it was -250.
Keep it up. I'll be laughing and wagering. You have me the most simple wager of any event from the world championships, considering the price.
Obiri is the clear favourite even when Ayana won the 10000m. I don't know why OP and some others are making a big fuss about it and thought it was some kind of groundbreaking prediction.
And no, Vivian could not win the 10000m in Rio.
check the contest wrote:
Well 28 of the top 30 contestants in the prediction contest picked Obiri to win. I realize that is a selection bias, but that is an overwhelming number. I guarantee if one of the site employees provided the percentage of people who were picked to win the w5000m that Obiri would have the highest percentage.
98 out of 100 foxholes contain foxes, and no fish. I realize that's selection bias,
but based on this, I guarantee that there are many more foxes in the world than fish.
Anytime you want to make a wager regarding Ayana at 5000m with Obiri and Hassan in the race, send me a message.
Awsi Dooger wrote:
Kid running after kipchoge wrote:Ayana's only chance was to run a WR pace, but a stupid first 2 pedestrian laps cost her the race.
Exactly. I didn't see this thread yesterday or I would have posted the same thing here.
Ayana didn't necessarily need world record pace but she needed 69 or 70 every lap from the outset and then lower it somewhat. Force Obiri to run a time she has never proven capable of doing.
Regardless, I love the geniuses who doubt Almaz Ayana. That's the mindset that allowed me to bet Ayana at +110 odds in the 10,000 when earlier it was -250.
Keep it up. I'll be laughing and wagering. You have me the most simple wager of any event from the world championships, considering the price.
Also, that wasn't going to shake Obiri. Obiri also has WR breaking ability at 5000m. She ran 4:18 this year, and she appeared to have more in the tank after the race.
There was no move that Ayana could do that was going to shake Obiri. Her training was focused on running just as fast as Ayana or running faster, on top of her being the faster and better sprinter. Plus Obiri - to me- is the tougher athlete. So running faster in 2 more laps, and Obiri would have still been her shadow ( plus Ayana would have just tired herself out sooner in my opinion)
The best thing that Ayana can do right now is develop a stronger kick, because now she is dealing with someone who can run just as fast. But the difference is Obiri is the stronger 400m runner. Ayana does not have 60 second last lap ability. That is the difference right now between her and Obiri.
As long as Obiri maintains her ability, and continues to get stronger, and ayana continues to depend on one way of winning, I don't see ayana beating obiri anytime soon at 5000m IN CHAMPIONSHIP RACES.
Peace. We just agree to disagree.
For one thing, the title of this thread is so asinine. The word "again" doesn't threaten to belong. Ayana's loss in the Olympic 5000 was totally self inflicted. She thought she was invincible and admitted as much later one. The result stunned her. She assumed she could run all day at that pace, after the early laps had been so slow.
Obiri and Cheruiyot merely inherited Ayana's collapse. They deserve some credit for figuring out beforehand it was the only way Ayana would lose so they stayed back to see if it would happen. But that's all they did. That Olympic winning time was not particularly rapid and neither was Obiri's time yesterday.
This time full credit to Obiri although I had to chuckle when she bragged about a world record attempt beforehand and then was content to sit back and do nothing when the first lap itself guaranteed there was zero chance at the world record. In other words, Obiri had no confidence whatsoever she could do it on her own. She needed Ayana as a prop.
Yes it worked but Ayana has the far superior resume plus she is 2 years younger. Not exactly competitive.
Besides, I seem to remember similar heading into the Zurich meet in 2015. Ayana doubters had a field day and bet Genzebe to substantial favorite in that quick turnaround rematch. Thank you very much. I didn't have Ayana in that world championship race but once she demonstrated her caliber and superiority to Genzebe I had no problem taking the generous price shortly thereafter.
And it appears Obiri backers will be willing to make a similar blunder. Maybe not this year but certainly next year when both start the season healthy and fresh.
Selection bias matters wrote:
check the contest wrote:Well 28 of the top 30 contestants in the prediction contest picked Obiri to win. I realize that is a selection bias, but that is an overwhelming number. I guarantee if one of the site employees provided the percentage of people who were picked to win the w5000m that Obiri would have the highest percentage.
98 out of 100 foxholes contain foxes, and no fish. I realize that's selection bias,
but based on this, I guarantee that there are many more foxes in the world than fish.
Not a comparable analogy.
Obiri was the favorite.
People forget Vivian was also in that epic 10k in Rio running a massive PB herself just outside the old Chinese record. As for Ayana wasting energy in the 5K heats, she made no such mistake this year and ran as consevatively as possible, yet she still got owned by Obiri.
So you keep bragging about how much money Ayana made you in 2015, she must've lost you a ton this year.
scorpion_runner wrote:
Kid running after kipchoge wrote:Ayana's only chance was to run a WR pace, but a stupid first 2 pedestrian laps cost her the race.
There was nothing Ayana could do ...nothing. She can't go slow, because they kickers will destroy her. Can't go fast with Obiri there because Obiri can match her speed for speed and then out kick her.
no tactic was going to help her do to her lacking 400m speed. That is what Dibaba used to to do her, and Obiri followed that same script.
In championship races if you don't have a kick - you are screwed!
Proof of this can be seen with Galen Rupp. In a time trial scenario where he can just red line, he can put up decent times. But he has no kick! So, anyone who can hang with him or slow the pace can beat him. This is why he came in 4th and 5th significantly more often than 1st and 2nd.
People here are so stupid thinking that having a good kick can bring you the first place if you just keep up with the leader who's kick is weaker than yours. By this rational Usain Bolt could break 2 hours in the marathon- all he has to do is keep up with Kipchoge's pace and then outkick him. The people who say this obviously don't run. This isn't jumping on a moving train you know, you actually have to run the same pace as the leader. There is no way on earth that Obiri or Cheriot could have gotten Ayana in her Rio WR. They were not in 29:17 shape rabbited or not rabbited, why did they fall behind, because they couldn't keep up!
However, why didn't Obiri fall behind in London WC, because it was a 14:34 pace, and she was at least in 14:18 shape and probably better. Didn't you see all those Ayana Dibaba's matchups where Dibaba who had a better kick couldn't keep up with the pace??? She got her just once when she could run 14:15 pace, but all the the other times she wasn't in that good of a shape, and didn't have any kick left in her whatsoever. A kick is not some magic button you press at the end regardless of how fast the pace was like in some Sony play station game! A condition for a kick is that you have to be at least in a shape to handle the entire pace of the race. The leader is physically towing you with a rope!
Stupido!!
Meant to say the leader isn't physically towing you
What we are saying is that someone who can keep up with her will out kick her, since she has not finishing kick. Why is this difficult for you to understand?
Dibaba ( if her head is on straight) can run 4:15. Obiri can run 4:18, and probably even faster now. So those are two runners who can keep up with her, speed for speed, and if they are neck and neck with 400m to go, who do you think is going to win?
In every situation, where Ayana was shoulder to shoulder with one of those runners with 400m to go, she lost!
What on earth don't you understand about that?
If she can't get out, and push a big lead at this so called pace you keep talking about, there is no other way she can win a race ....because she has no kick! She has to run hard in every championship race in order to win, because she can't sit and out kick everyone ...like a mo, like a tirunesh, like a bekele, like a dibaba ,like an obiri.
She is a one trick pony show ...who will run the same way every time. That is her only tactic, and considering she was injured earlier, she might run herself in the ground running that way.
Just look a Bekele for proof of that.
If Obiri is in a 14:15 shape- that means it's 14:15 including the kick in the end!!
It doesn't mean she can run 14:15 pace and then kick in the last 400m to finish with a WR of 14:05!!
You must be some kind of a thicko!
In Rio Cheriot and T Dibaba did kick!! But they were in such shape that their pace + their kick couldn't match with Ayana steady 29:17 pace!!