2017 Tour de France thread

Dat Dude DP wrote:

I felt Floyd Landis was the ultimate dark horse winner.....until it was ruined by him getting busted right away....

In 2006, that was the year Operation Puerto happened, and the two overwhelming favorites were removed (Ulrich, Basso). So yea, if those guys were in then Landis was a surprise.

However, with them out, I'm almost positive I predicted a win for him. He had turned into a fantastic time trailer since he left Discovery in 2004. 9th the year before in the Tour.

In 2008, I think there were no previous Tour winners present, with the addtional exclusion of other top talent like Kloden and Leipheimer, along with all the Operation Puerto people. I do not remember the details, but Sastre ended up winning on the strength of one single stage (maybe Alpe d'Huez?) and then not falling apart in the last time trial has had happened to Rasmussen(?) a couple of years before.

In 1999, no way no how did anyone think Armstrong was a GT contender. After cancer and his previous career as more of a single day strong guy? No way.

Hurl wrote:

Two or three reasons why:

NOBODY can just ride away from "climbers" like that.

Power data from Froome shows that when he was riding up to, and away from climbers to that win, the demand on his body was about equal to sitting on the couch and watching TV. Doesn't seem right, that.

You need to be subtle, son. That wasn't subtle.

400 watts is sitting on the couch? shit man, that's something.

Mods plz fix thread title to "2017 Turd of France thread"

I say Porte will win. My dark horses are talansky, rolland, pantano, or meintjes

Fake Sports wrote:

and may the best doper win!

Hey, you know that's actually not how it works in cycling. If you're one of those guys that loves to just shit on a sport because you think they're doping, okay, you're on the wrong website, but cycling isn't a sport that the strongest man always wins.

I picked up cycling and follow it way closer than running because I got sick of the strongest guy winning 9/10 times. There's really no strategy other than choosing to run a hard race and risk getting outkicked or sitting and waiting to kick. The 10,000 this year was a great race because it wasn't just that.

But in cycling, alright, devil's advocate. Froome is doping, Porte is doping, everybody is doped to the gills. TBH not totally convinced that's the case. But the nature of the sport is that the strongest guy will not always win. They may have the most bullets to fire throughout the course of the race, but they have to really think and use those in the right places. There are the guys with just 1-2 bullets that choose it right and win big, and that makes the sport way more popular than running or pole vault. It's way more dynamic of a sport and generally much harder to predict.

This year, Froome lines up as a 3-time winner, but he is completely winless this season and looks very vulnerable. But he's still the favorite because he races smart, aggressive and knows when to use his bullets over 3 weeks.

There's a good chance this won't convince you of anything. But you're wrong.

^^^ Uhhh , what'd he say ?

Well, if it comforts, the guy that replaced Floyd in that Tour for winner, Oscar Pereiro, that's a true dark horse, as well as Carlos Sastre.

I think you meant to say..."But the nature of the sport is that the strongest guy will not always win. A strong, tactical rider with a real strong team in place supporting him has the better shot at winning."

Cycling is a TEAM sport NOT an individual sport (only during time trials, the Olympics and Worlds).

Breaking wind wrote:

Sastre has no other Grand Tour GC titles besides his TdF win. If you're saying that a Quintana win would be a darkorse then you'd have to also say that Carlos' was.

But I agree that Froome will win, so it's all just semantics.

Sastre was a cleanish rider in a dirty era. He finished high in the GC several times. In another time he'd have won more.

No you're absolutely right, the team is critical, but if all you watch is the Tour de France, all you see is the best rider on the best team (Froome and Sky), so it doesn't really matter.

To your point, in the Giro this year, Tom Dumoulin didn't have the strongest team in a race that you'd think it would be critical to have a strong team. Many long days with long mountains, lots of potential ambushes. Nairo Quintana was even the stronger climber, but he didn't have the guts or tactical prowess to sense when it was time to put time into Dumoulin. His team was by far the best in the race and set him up perfectly time after time. But he didn't play it right, and he didn't win. So there are times that it comes down to the individual, and they can win or lose it for the team that has been working for them.

I think it makes for a really fascinating sport. I hope I don't come across as too combative, I really just want to convey those points. Most Americans only follow the Tour and only see the same thing happen year after year and it's not good for the sport. But the problem is that the Tour is so important that teams aren't willing to leave something up to chance and to win the race, they need to go all-in and control as Sky does. Other races throughout the year become much better, both the Vuelta and Giro are better races IMO. I highly encourage anybody that enjoys the 3-week aspect of the Tour to tune in for those!

what's the easiest way to watch the tour on TV in the US?

anyone have a link to a TV schedule for US programming?

good luck to my friend Michael Matthews who will challenge for at least another stage win this year! How many readers on Letsrun knows a tour winner?

oh please wrote:

In 1999, no way no how did anyone think Armstrong was a GT contender. After cancer and his previous career as more of a single day strong guy? No way.

It's called: "Put me on a program Dr. Ferrari." However, there are some key points why Lance was King of the jungle for 7 straight years:

1) Very high responder to high-octane doping, and of course having Ferrari in his corner.

2) Superior team support year end & year out (a 3 week GT is a team effort).

3) Meticulous preparation for exclusively the TdF every year.

4) Exceptional mental toughness.

5) Uncanny luck in avoiding crashes & staying out of trouble.

There will probably never be another 7-time Tour winner. I see Froome winning this year, barring any crashes, and maybe #5 next year, tying the all-time record with the other four Legends (Anquetil, Merckx, Hinault, Indurain).

trollism wrote:

medical abuse wrote:

If the UCI was at all interested in enforcing some sort of justice then Froome and all of Team Sky should not be allowed to compete in cycling period. Has anyone forgotten that practically the whole of Team Sky was busted ealier this year for cortisone abuse and testosteone patches? The only thing that saved them was that their team doctor "lost" all of the team's medical records on a Greek island. You could not even make it up.

No they weren't.

Oh yes they were. Just because no proper punishment was dished out does not mean that they were not cheating.

nitroboost60 wrote:

what's the easiest way to watch the tour on TV in the US?

anyone have a link to a TV schedule for US programming?

NBCSN. Starts Saturday 9am EST. Watch the prestart show starting at 730.

What? They're not going to show it on the mother ship? I cut the cable last year and went full rabbit ears. What about sports bars...will it be shown there?

oh please wrote:

In 1999, no way no how did anyone think Armstrong was a GT contender. After cancer and his previous career as more of a single day strong guy? No way.

He finished 4th at the 1998 Vuelta just one year after being declared cancer free.

In 1999 he flew under the radar, only prep race I recall is the Dauphine where he finished 7th. But again, you don't want to be at peak shape during that event just yet.

Also, Ullrich and Pantani were sitting out in 1999 and Riies hat already retired.

Not that much of an upset.

Great. thanks for the info !

mypredictor wrote:

nitroboost60 wrote:

what's the easiest way to watch the tour on TV in the US?

anyone have a link to a TV schedule for US programming?

NBCSN. Starts Saturday 9am EST. Watch the prestart show starting at 730.

Cycling Guy2 wrote:

He finished 4th at the 1998 Vuelta just one year after being declared cancer free.

In 1999 he flew under the radar, only prep race I recall is the Dauphine where he finished 7th. But again, you don't want to be at peak shape during that event just yet.

Also, Ullrich and Pantani were sitting out in 1999 and Riies hat already retired.

Not that much of an upset.

It was thought that the Festina Affair spooked a lot of the riders to tone down their doping program that year while LA didn't care and went full throttle anyway. Pantani got popped for the 50% Hct limit at the Giro that year and was thrown out...which he then decided not to do the Tour. But all was different the next year where LA went nuclear destroying the likes of Ullrich, Beloki & Pantani...very unexpected.