EVEN YAGER BABY wrote:
Jager is the US's best hope at a medal for distance at least. Close second is probably Chelimo. Gatlin and Merritt (possibly Kerley even if he keeps it rolling) all have very high chances of meddling as well, but yeah Jager, Merritt, and Gatlin are the only ones I'm counting on, Jager definitely the least.
Jager less than Gatlin? No way...Jager has to be considered a favorite to medal, he's shown great racing savvy the past couple years and has shown he's got the talent to run 7:56-7 (which he would have done if not for the fall), which is just off the world record. Plus now he's got the confidence of an Olympic silver and he's clearly in fantastic shape now, a 56.7 last lap in that heat is insane. If Jager has a mediocre or even average day, yes there are 5-6 guys in the world who could beat him, but if he's on his game there's almost no way he finishes out of the medals.
Gatlin OTOH just edged out Coleman who was doubling and coming off a long college season, in a not super impressive time. I don't think with Bolt, Coleman, De Grasse running well, along with a few other potential threats, Gatlin can be considered an odds-on favorite to medal. I would put Jager's medal chances at about 60-70% and Gatlin at 40-50%.
And will Merritt really be able to hang with someone like McLeod who just ran 12.90? I think he's got great medal chances, probably the best of all three, but among them I'd say Jager has the best chance at gold, as Kipruto is the only one who should really stand in his way and he was almost beaten by some 21-year-old Moroccan this month in Rome.