the fastest auto-timed relay legs in history are :
mj - 42.94
warriner - 43.10
butch - 43.23
korir - 43.34
there have been coupla faster HT ones than korir, but that's the upto date list
now, certainly mj & warriner ran unimpeded, route-1 anchors already proverbial mile ahead without even having to check the vids
both ran anchors tight in lane-1 all the way around
Korir likely had no such luxury !!!
flo-track premium have vid & it won't be youtubed for months, if ever
so, we have to go to full race splits
Korir was 5th at stick-change & charged to 2nd by end
at take-over, he was 0.21s behind 4th, 0.63s behind 3rd, 1.91s behind 2nd & 2.67s !!! behind 1st
he caught all but the 2nd who won the race with a 44.68 anchor
now, analysing without vid, it is impossible to believe all those guys ahead of him just drifted wide in lane & let Korir run unimpeded, route-1 race tight in lane 1 !
it's virtually certain he had to run wide on 1st bend to overtake the 4th & 3rd guy & probably ran 1.5 - 2m extra on bend
he probably didn't overtake the fading leader until last bend as 2.67s down to start with, probably needing another 0.75 - 1m run extra on bends
therefore, it's very likely his anchor was with an additional ~ 2.25 - 3.0m compared to an anchor above like mj's or warriner
doing the math, that is 43.34 relay for 402.25 to 403m -> for 400 only of
43.01 - 43.09 !!!
adding 0.7s to this for open 400 & the estimate for his current open 400 shape is
43.71 - 43.79 !!!
this is solidified by fact he was unrested & had to run a 1'45+ the day before
suffice to say, i woud 100% say Korir is currently in at very, very worst 44-flat shape & much more likely at 43.7+