Coincidence. Just look at the evidence! EPO has zero effect on elite runners.
rojo wrote:
I hate to admit but the arrival of the EPO and the huge drop in track records sure is strong related.
"Does anyone remember London in 2016? The guys slowed down as they were worried about racing each other and cost themselves the world record."
rojo wrote:oh please wrote:So do you want to bet on Berlin or not?
Exactly. I think a similar effort in Berlin might yield close to same results, mostly thanks to potentially even better weather by 5F or so, plus the added benefit of a race instead of a time trial. It would take money, but it shouldn't be totally out of the realm to get a team of guys to pace as long as they can at 60/half pace and see where it goes..
The idea that he'd run better in a "race with competition" is laughable. I saw some variant of that theory being proposed before the race. A woman on facebook on Sage Canaday's page was saying he wouldn't do as well because there was no "crowd." Go read "Scorecasting" people. Crowd doesn't have anything to do with it.
Does anyone remember London in 2016? The guys slowed down as they were worried about racing each other and cost themselves the world record.
The idea that a guy needs "a real race" to be motivated is laughable. I can only imagine the financial incentive he was going to get from Nike if he had broken 2:00:00. David Monti estimated he'd get between $1 and $1.5 million if he'd done it.
So you really think Kipchoge was racing at like 95% but then decided, "You know what I won't give it 100% because it's not a real race?" That's laughable. The idea that guys can simply try harder is laughable. If it's just a matter of willpower why wasn't everyone on this board a pro runner?
If a real race and crowd were factors, then a bunch of collegians wouldn't have run 3:37 in front of 50 people at Swarthmore last night.
You often run faster in time trials/practice than you do in a real race.
I don't think people's performances change much because they "try harder" in one race versus another. Wanjiru vs Kebede? Yes I think he tried harder to break him because there was $500,000 on the line. Kipchoge cerainly had a competitor in Italy - it was the clock. The clock was breaking and Kipchoge was trying to fight back but physiologically he was unable to do it.
oh please wrote:rojo wrote:I feel like I'm being trolled. I don't have to "bet a thousand dollars" to have a discussion. Have you ever run a race? If the race is set up to be "first to break 2", it's a hell of a lot different than the standard run-of-the-mill WMM. Breaking two will be athletic immortality. If it is a three man race as 37km, all know the stakes of not being first across the line. Sure, all three could slow down, but 20 years or more to get things right?oh please wrote:So do you want to bet on Berlin or not?
Exactly. I think a similar effort in Berlin might yield close to same results, mostly thanks to potentially even better weather by 5F or so, plus the added benefit of a race instead of a time trial. It would take money, but it shouldn't be totally out of the realm to get a team of guys to pace as long as they can at 60/half pace and see where it goes..
The idea that he'd run better in a "race with competition" is laughable. I saw some variant of that theory being proposed before the race. A woman on facebook on Sage Canaday's page was saying he wouldn't do as well because there was no "crowd." Go read "Scorecasting" people. Crowd doesn't have anything to do with it.
Does anyone remember London in 2016? The guys slowed down as they were worried about racing each other and cost themselves the world record.
The idea that a guy needs "a real race" to be motivated is laughable. I can only imagine the financial incentive he was going to get from Nike if he had broken 2:00:00. David Monti estimated he'd get between $1 and $1.5 million if he'd done it.
So you really think Kipchoge was racing at like 95% but then decided, "You know what I won't give it 100% because it's not a real race?" That's laughable. The idea that guys can simply try harder is laughable. If it's just a matter of willpower why wasn't everyone on this board a pro runner?
If a real race and crowd were factors, then a bunch of collegians wouldn't have run 3:37 in front of 50 people at Swarthmore last night.
You often run faster in time trials/practice than you do in a real race.
Do you think Wanjiru v. Kebede, Chicago 2010 didn't benefit from it being a race? You think Kebede didn't "try harder" to break Wanjiru? You think Wanjiru didn't "try harder" to keep coming back? That is what adrenaline and refusing to lose is all about.
It is not a catch all of course. The stars must line up, the ability must be there. For all we know maybe they should have went out at 59:30? How many times has someone actually went out at 2 hour pace?
You're just one of those guys that once they make up their mind, will actually wish and hope for ill will on people just to keep being right. Your tweet day of proved that much. Small, insecure personality.
Rojo I agree with you regarding how consistent human beings are, especially runners and their ability. It brings up a similar discussion about nature vs. nurture. It sounds like you err on the side of nature?
rojo wrote:oh please wrote:I don't think people's performances change much because they "try harder" in one race versus another. Wanjiru vs Kebede? Yes I think he tried harder to break him because there was $500,000 on the line. Kipchoge cerainly had a competitor in Italy - it was the clock. The clock was breaking and Kipchoge was trying to fight back but physiologically he was unable to do it.rojo wrote:I feel like I'm being trolled. I don't have to "bet a thousand dollars" to have a discussion. Have you ever run a race? If the race is set up to be "first to break 2", it's a hell of a lot different than the standard run-of-the-mill WMM. Breaking two will be athletic immortality. If it is a three man race as 37km, all know the stakes of not being first across the line. Sure, all three could slow down, but 20 years or more to get things right?oh please wrote:So do you want to bet on Berlin or not?
Exactly. I think a similar effort in Berlin might yield close to same results, mostly thanks to potentially even better weather by 5F or so, plus the added benefit of a race instead of a time trial. It would take money, but it shouldn't be totally out of the realm to get a team of guys to pace as long as they can at 60/half pace and see where it goes..
The idea that he'd run better in a "race with competition" is laughable. I saw some variant of that theory being proposed before the race. A woman on facebook on Sage Canaday's page was saying he wouldn't do as well because there was no "crowd." Go read "Scorecasting" people. Crowd doesn't have anything to do with it.
Does anyone remember London in 2016? The guys slowed down as they were worried about racing each other and cost themselves the world record.
The idea that a guy needs "a real race" to be motivated is laughable. I can only imagine the financial incentive he was going to get from Nike if he had broken 2:00:00. David Monti estimated he'd get between $1 and $1.5 million if he'd done it.
So you really think Kipchoge was racing at like 95% but then decided, "You know what I won't give it 100% because it's not a real race?" That's laughable. The idea that guys can simply try harder is laughable. If it's just a matter of willpower why wasn't everyone on this board a pro runner?
If a real race and crowd were factors, then a bunch of collegians wouldn't have run 3:37 in front of 50 people at Swarthmore last night.
You often run faster in time trials/practice than you do in a real race.
Do you think Wanjiru v. Kebede, Chicago 2010 didn't benefit from it being a race? You think Kebede didn't "try harder" to break Wanjiru? You think Wanjiru didn't "try harder" to keep coming back? That is what adrenaline and refusing to lose is all about.
It is not a catch all of course. The stars must line up, the ability must be there. For all we know maybe they should have went out at 59:30? How many times has someone actually went out at 2 hour pace?
You're just one of those guys that once they make up their mind, will actually wish and hope for ill will on people just to keep being right. Your tweet day of proved that much. Small, insecure personality.
A bunch of Ivy league kids just ran sub 3:40 at some no nothing race at Swarthmore. Did they need a big crowd to do it? No. THey needed good conditions.
I've always been amazed as to how consistent human beings are. It doesn't matter really how much sleep you get the night before or what you eat, you pretty much run to your talent level. A 4:30 HS guy doesn't wake up feel good and run 4:10. They will amazingly run real close to 4:30.
Same thing with a 14:10 guy and 13:10 guy.
You benevolent dictators have three items up on the board as top posts.
LetsRun.com wrote:
Healthy debate is good for the sport.
Four years ago, LetsRun's Robert Johnson said we were nowhere close to a sub-2 marathon and he's not backing down after Kipchoge's amazing 2:00:25 run:
https://www.letsrun.com/news/20...-marathon/
In 1991, when the marathon world record was just 2:06:50, Dr. Michael Joyner famously predicted a human could run a marathon in 1:57:58. He shares his thoughts on Kipchoge's run here.
https://www.letsrun.com/news/20...ppen-next/
What do you think?
Well, there is no Darwin process there, but it would be quite presumptuous to postulate that nobody can beat Kimetto's record.
longjack wrote:
there is no progressive timeline on such things, there is no darwin process, as the brojos assume. we ain't evolving dude.
For $5 million and maybe a few charter flights from Kenya, you could probably get a few hundred guys willing to go for it.
rojo wrote:
So you think someone just hasn't done it now simply because they haven't offered $5 million? That makes no sense. If offered you $100 million, could you break 4 minutes in the mile?
I'm assuming a) shoes don't get ridiculous and b) no new doping comes on board.
I hate to admit but the arrival of the EPO and the huge drop in track records sure is strong related.
Fairly stagnant?
From 2007 to 2017: The WR has come down by 1:58 in the last 10 years. That's a lot.
From 1997 to 2017- 20 years - it only came down 2:17.
I'm not saying it CANNOT be done. I'm just saying it won't be done anytime soon. Your comment about ONE guy trying it is absurd.
The VERY best guy in the world couldn't get it done. So if he can't , then no one else can.
It wasn't his first try. He's run a ton of marathons. He's failed to break 2:00 in all of them.
And if you read my article, I"m talking about in normal races.
But your one guy comment is laughable. If I take Usain Bolt down to the local track with everyone here in Baltimore and have him try to run 8.9 for 100 meters and he doesn't, does it really matter if I don't line up the other million people behind him have them race as well?
Then why didn't they try it in Berlin and set a real world record that nobody would argue about?
oh please wrote:
Exactly. I think a similar effort in Berlin might yield close to same results
There is no way Kipchoge climbs that mountain again if he was paid anywhere near what he was reportedly paid. After Kenyans get financially set they lose interest in running (Komen & Ngeny spring to mind).
Bigly Yuge wrote:
2:02-2:03 will be conservative in the next year or so.
Kipchoge will get under 2:02. Bet on it.
Because Berlin hasn't happened since they realized that they were so close?
Bad Wigins wrote:oh please wrote:Then why didn't they try it in Berlin and set a real world record that nobody would argue about?
Exactly. I think a similar effort in Berlin might yield close to same results
Next time Kipchoge runs a normal race, you will all be proven wrong, though you won't admit it until about 5 more races have passed. And some will forever claim that he merely declined.
Kipchoge was financially set in 2003.
Subway Surfers Addiction wrote:Bigly Yuge wrote:There is no way Kipchoge climbs that mountain again if he was paid anywhere near what he was reportedly paid. After Kenyans get financially set they lose interest in running (Komen & Ngeny spring to mind).
2:02-2:03 will be conservative in the next year or so.
Kipchoge will get under 2:02. Bet on it.