RE: RoJo 20 years from Sub2 / Dr. Joyner and Rojo share their thoughts on what Eliud Kipchoge's 2:00:25 means
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I was a big supporter of sub2 l. I was the only person i remember seeing saying theyd get close and I think we are still a long way away. The only chance is if kipchoge tries for sub 2:01 in Berlin. The WR is lowered incrementally because people shoot for WR pace. If kipchoge doesn't move it a large amount, nobody else will be balsy enough to try
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Whether you like it or not, Rojo, the sub-2 project is good for the sport. Dazzle us with speculative science all you want, but it's better for us to believe the top performers are capable of much more, and this project helps get us there. Yeah, I hate our Nike overlords too and am loathe to give them any credit for what Kipchoge has achieved. But expand our imagination with this "stunt" they have, and that's good for the sport.
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if Kipchoge runs WC in London, then I doubt he'd also run Berlin.
Has EK declared for WC?
Also, please define "legitimate"?
Would any course that drops < 42m and finishes within 21.1km of start line = legitimate? -
rojo wrote:
oh please wrote:
Exactly. I think a similar effort in Berlin might yield close to same results, mostly thanks to potentially even better weather by 5F or so, plus the added benefit of a race instead of a time trial. It would take money, but it shouldn't be totally out of the realm to get a team of guys to pace as long as they can at 60/half pace and see where it goes..
So do you want to bet on Berlin or not?
The idea that he'd run better in a "race with competition" is laughable. I saw some variant of that theory being proposed before the race. A woman on facebook on Sage Canaday's page was saying he wouldn't do as well because there was no "crowd." Go read "Scorecasting" people. Crowd doesn't have anything to do with it.
Does anyone remember London in 2016? The guys slowed down as they were worried about racing each other and cost themselves the world record.
The idea that a guy needs "a real race" to be motivated is laughable. I can only imagine the financial incentive he was going to get from Nike if he had broken 2:00:00. David Monti estimated he'd get between $1 and $1.5 million if he'd done it.
So you really think Kipchoge was racing at like 95% but then decided, "You know what I won't give it 100% because it's not a real race?" That's laughable. The idea that guys can simply try harder is laughable. If it's just a matter of willpower why wasn't everyone on this board a pro runner?
If a real race and crowd were factors, then a bunch of collegians wouldn't have run 3:37 in front of 50 people at Swarthmore last night.
You often run faster in time trials/practice than you do in a real race.
"Does anyone remember London in 2016? The guys slowed down as they were worried about racing each other and cost themselves the world record."
"You often run faster in time trials/practice than you do in a real race."
These are reasons why I can't take your bet. Your bet favors you because in a race situation most people aren't willing to risk going out hard and then blowing up. We would need a handful of people risking it in order to break the 2:02 mark that you set. Not sure if you put this reasoning behind your bet intentionally, but it's smart if you did. I would love to take your bet, but since it's a race and the runners want to win, there's no way they're breaking 2:02. But to be clear, they wouldn't be breaking it not because they can't, but because they will need to run slightly conservative in order to ensure a win. -
2:02-2:03 will be conservative in the next year or so.
Kipchoge will get under 2:02. Bet on it. -
HMMMMMMMMMMMMMM wrote:
Couldn't disagree with you more. This will happen within 5 years. If I was a RD for Berlin or Chicago I'd find a sponsor to pay a $5m bonus for going under 2 hours. That's how it will happen.
So you think someone just hasn't done it now simply because they haven't offered $5 million? That makes no sense. If offered you $100 million, could you break 4 minutes in the mile?
I'm assuming a) shoes don't get ridiculous and b) no new doping comes on board.
I hate to admit but the arrival of the EPO and the huge drop in track records sure is strong related.
Phil me In wrote:
I agree. The WR has been fairly stagnant for the last decade.
Unless some of the numbnutz think the advertising unsactioned side show taught them something.
Fairly stagnant?
From 2007 to 2017: The WR has come down by 1:58 in the last 10 years. That's a lot.
From 1997 to 2017- 20 years - it only came down 2:17.
Sub-520 miler wrote:
LRC is such a strange place. Nothing like the Sub-2 event has ever been done in the history of running, and since ONE guy didn't achieve it on the first try, despite coming extremely close to hitting 1:59:99, there are still large quantities of people saying it CANNOT be done.
I'm not saying it CANNOT be done. I'm just saying it won't be done anytime soon. Your comment about ONE guy trying it is absurd.
The VERY best guy in the world couldn't get it done. So if he can't , then no one else can.
It wasn't his first try. He's run a ton of marathons. He's failed to break 2:00 in all of them.
And if you read my article, I"m talking about in normal races.
But your one guy comment is laughable. If I take Usain Bolt down to the local track with everyone here in Baltimore and have him try to run 8.9 for 100 meters and he doesn't, does it really matter if I don't line up the other million people behind him have them race as well? -
oh please wrote:
rojo wrote:
oh please wrote:
Exactly. I think a similar effort in Berlin might yield close to same results, mostly thanks to potentially even better weather by 5F or so, plus the added benefit of a race instead of a time trial. It would take money, but it shouldn't be totally out of the realm to get a team of guys to pace as long as they can at 60/half pace and see where it goes..
So do you want to bet on Berlin or not?
The idea that he'd run better in a "race with competition" is laughable. I saw some variant of that theory being proposed before the race. A woman on facebook on Sage Canaday's page was saying he wouldn't do as well because there was no "crowd." Go read "Scorecasting" people. Crowd doesn't have anything to do with it.
Does anyone remember London in 2016? The guys slowed down as they were worried about racing each other and cost themselves the world record.
The idea that a guy needs "a real race" to be motivated is laughable. I can only imagine the financial incentive he was going to get from Nike if he had broken 2:00:00. David Monti estimated he'd get between $1 and $1.5 million if he'd done it.
So you really think Kipchoge was racing at like 95% but then decided, "You know what I won't give it 100% because it's not a real race?" That's laughable. The idea that guys can simply try harder is laughable. If it's just a matter of willpower why wasn't everyone on this board a pro runner?
If a real race and crowd were factors, then a bunch of collegians wouldn't have run 3:37 in front of 50 people at Swarthmore last night.
You often run faster in time trials/practice than you do in a real race.
I feel like I'm being trolled. I don't have to "bet a thousand dollars" to have a discussion. Have you ever run a race? If the race is set up to be "first to break 2", it's a hell of a lot different than the standard run-of-the-mill WMM. Breaking two will be athletic immortality. If it is a three man race as 37km, all know the stakes of not being first across the line. Sure, all three could slow down, but 20 years or more to get things right?
Do you think Wanjiru v. Kebede, Chicago 2010 didn't benefit from it being a race? You think Kebede didn't "try harder" to break Wanjiru? You think Wanjiru didn't "try harder" to keep coming back? That is what adrenaline and refusing to lose is all about.
It is not a catch all of course. The stars must line up, the ability must be there. For all we know maybe they should have went out at 59:30? How many times has someone actually went out at 2 hour pace?
You're just one of those guys that once they make up their mind, will actually wish and hope for ill will on people just to keep being right. Your tweet day of proved that much. Small, insecure personality.
I don't think people's performances change much because they "try harder" in one race versus another. Wanjiru vs Kebede? Yes I think he tried harder to break him because there was $500,000 on the line. Kipchoge cerainly had a competitor in Italy - it was the clock. The clock was breaking and Kipchoge was trying to fight back but physiologically he was unable to do it.
A bunch of Ivy league kids just ran sub 3:40 at some no nothing race at Swarthmore. Did they need a big crowd to do it? No. THey needed good conditions.
I've always been amazed as to how consistent human beings are. It doesn't matter really how much sleep you get the night before or what you eat, you pretty much run to your talent level. A 4:30 HS guy doesn't wake up feel good and run 4:10. They will amazingly run real close to 4:30.
Same thing with a 14:10 guy and 13:10 guy. -
rojo wrote:
oh please wrote:
rojo wrote:
oh please wrote:
Exactly. I think a similar effort in Berlin might yield close to same results, mostly thanks to potentially even better weather by 5F or so, plus the added benefit of a race instead of a time trial. It would take money, but it shouldn't be totally out of the realm to get a team of guys to pace as long as they can at 60/half pace and see where it goes..
So do you want to bet on Berlin or not?
The idea that he'd run better in a "race with competition" is laughable. I saw some variant of that theory being proposed before the race. A woman on facebook on Sage Canaday's page was saying he wouldn't do as well because there was no "crowd." Go read "Scorecasting" people. Crowd doesn't have anything to do with it.
Does anyone remember London in 2016? The guys slowed down as they were worried about racing each other and cost themselves the world record.
The idea that a guy needs "a real race" to be motivated is laughable. I can only imagine the financial incentive he was going to get from Nike if he had broken 2:00:00. David Monti estimated he'd get between $1 and $1.5 million if he'd done it.
So you really think Kipchoge was racing at like 95% but then decided, "You know what I won't give it 100% because it's not a real race?" That's laughable. The idea that guys can simply try harder is laughable. If it's just a matter of willpower why wasn't everyone on this board a pro runner?
If a real race and crowd were factors, then a bunch of collegians wouldn't have run 3:37 in front of 50 people at Swarthmore last night.
You often run faster in time trials/practice than you do in a real race.
I feel like I'm being trolled. I don't have to "bet a thousand dollars" to have a discussion. Have you ever run a race? If the race is set up to be "first to break 2", it's a hell of a lot different than the standard run-of-the-mill WMM. Breaking two will be athletic immortality. If it is a three man race as 37km, all know the stakes of not being first across the line. Sure, all three could slow down, but 20 years or more to get things right?
Do you think Wanjiru v. Kebede, Chicago 2010 didn't benefit from it being a race? You think Kebede didn't "try harder" to break Wanjiru? You think Wanjiru didn't "try harder" to keep coming back? That is what adrenaline and refusing to lose is all about.
It is not a catch all of course. The stars must line up, the ability must be there. For all we know maybe they should have went out at 59:30? How many times has someone actually went out at 2 hour pace?
You're just one of those guys that once they make up their mind, will actually wish and hope for ill will on people just to keep being right. Your tweet day of proved that much. Small, insecure personality.
I don't think people's performances change much because they "try harder" in one race versus another. Wanjiru vs Kebede? Yes I think he tried harder to break him because there was $500,000 on the line. Kipchoge cerainly had a competitor in Italy - it was the clock. The clock was breaking and Kipchoge was trying to fight back but physiologically he was unable to do it.
A bunch of Ivy league kids just ran sub 3:40 at some no nothing race at Swarthmore. Did they need a big crowd to do it? No. THey needed good conditions.
I've always been amazed as to how consistent human beings are. It doesn't matter really how much sleep you get the night before or what you eat, you pretty much run to your talent level. A 4:30 HS guy doesn't wake up feel good and run 4:10. They will amazingly run real close to 4:30.
Same thing with a 14:10 guy and 13:10 guy.
Rojo I agree with you regarding how consistent human beings are, especially runners and their ability. It brings up a similar discussion about nature vs. nurture. It sounds like you err on the side of nature?
I do too, just curious about your opinion. I think talent has a lot more to do with it than just "trying harder" like you pointed out earlier. -
I think Nike avoided having Bekele in there for a reason, personally. Bekele even said he wasn't asked to be included in an interview, which I found puzzling.
This type of "race" was set up differently than any others in the sense that they are trying to stay on a pace as long as possible. In normal WR attempts, the pacers fall off half to 3/4 of the race. I am wondering if Nike sensed that Kipchoge was better off just focusing on sitting behind the leaders "relaxed", rather than having someone formidable also running with him. It was pretty obvious from the get-go that Nike didn't pick 3 equal candidates.
It seemed way more cool to have Bekele vs Kipchoge duke it out in this style of competition but someone didn't even bother calling him. Maybe he changed his number?? Just kidding, but really... It's like having a Slam Dunk contest and not even inviting LeBron James.
Also, my opinion on the race is that it proved two things
1) the air makes a really big difference! I had to look all this stuff up afterwards, but a few old studies in the Lore of Distance Running (via google) says drafting saves around 3-4 mins in a marathon at WR pace. Not sure how accurate that is, but it may not be that far off. While we've seen pacing help, due to the limits of the rules, the pacers could never take them that fast and that far in normal racing. Even in Nike's Sub-2 attempt, not one American pacer could break 1hr in the HM. So yes, pacing is a big help.
2) "Walls" don't exist as we thought in the best marathoner. The concept of hitting a wall or burning too much glycogen too quickly might have to go away now, someone just ran 4:36 pace for 2 straight hours, regardless of the pacing help. -
i think the 2"00'25 run was about a 203 mid.
that is a guestimate about the worth of drafting with the car et.al.
i think however someone can go 201 low right now with a half dozen drafters on a perfect day and perfect course.
what needs to be done is to recreate the conditions and get some test equipment in there to show the equivalent m/s suck that the car especially effected.
when you got half a dozen guys that can go 201 low, then you got a shot of the 2 hours.
this depends on a fluke of nature or drugs.
there is no progressive timeline on such things, there is no darwin process, as the brojos assume. we ain't evolving dude. -
LetsRun.com wrote:
Healthy debate is good for the sport.
Four years ago, LetsRun's Robert Johnson said we were nowhere close to a sub-2 marathon and he's not backing down after Kipchoge's amazing 2:00:25 run:
http://www.letsrun.com/news/2017/05/eliud-kipchoges-20025-monumental-step-forward-marathoning-no-not-still-20-years-away-legitimate-sub-2-marathon/
In 1991, when the marathon world record was just 2:06:50, Dr. Michael Joyner famously predicted a human could run a marathon in 1:57:58. He shares his thoughts on Kipchoge's run here.
http://www.letsrun.com/news/2017/05/guest-column-dr-michael-joyner-kipchoges-run-might-might-not-happen-next/
What do you think?
You benevolent dictators have three items up on the board as top posts.
How about letting one of us little men get a post up there? There is nothing special about what you put on here but you keep your posts going and shut out the rest of us. How is that helping LRC? -
longjack wrote:
there is no progressive timeline on such things, there is no darwin process, as the brojos assume. we ain't evolving dude.
Well, there is no Darwin process there, but it would be quite presumptuous to postulate that nobody can beat Kimetto's record.
Kipchoge ran low 2:04s 3x from 2013 - 2015, and last year a 2:03:05 in London. So he improved by 60 seconds within four years, and is now 33 years old. Looks good for a WR (which Bekele could get too), but no way he (or Bekele) will ever run a sub-2 marathon on a record-eligible course (new wonder drug aside).
I am sure we'll continue to inch forward with the marathon record, as we amass new knowledge with regards to training, shoes, racing, nutrition, supplements, and medication. And once in a while a superior talent might come along and start with the marathon early. For example Bekele as of twelve years ago would easily have beaten Kimetto's time (after proper marathon training).
My guess: sub-2 will happen within the next 20 - 40 years. I hope to see that happening in my lifetime. -
The drafting is greatly overrated. The whole concept of the arrowhead formation was not even used properly. You never see some goose floating around behind the point of the arrow for lengthy periods.
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rojo wrote:
So you think someone just hasn't done it now simply because they haven't offered $5 million? That makes no sense. If offered you $100 million, could you break 4 minutes in the mile?
I'm assuming a) shoes don't get ridiculous and b) no new doping comes on board.
I hate to admit but the arrival of the EPO and the huge drop in track records sure is strong related.
Fairly stagnant?
From 2007 to 2017: The WR has come down by 1:58 in the last 10 years. That's a lot.
From 1997 to 2017- 20 years - it only came down 2:17.
I'm not saying it CANNOT be done. I'm just saying it won't be done anytime soon. Your comment about ONE guy trying it is absurd.
The VERY best guy in the world couldn't get it done. So if he can't , then no one else can.
It wasn't his first try. He's run a ton of marathons. He's failed to break 2:00 in all of them.
And if you read my article, I"m talking about in normal races.
But your one guy comment is laughable. If I take Usain Bolt down to the local track with everyone here in Baltimore and have him try to run 8.9 for 100 meters and he doesn't, does it really matter if I don't line up the other million people behind him have them race as well?
For $5 million and maybe a few charter flights from Kenya, you could probably get a few hundred guys willing to go for it. -
RoJo has proven himself an immature buffoon in countless posts here. I won't bother reading his article, nor giving his opinion any credibility. He humiliates himself in most of his posts.
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oh please wrote:
Exactly. I think a similar effort in Berlin might yield close to same results
Then why didn't they try it in Berlin and set a real world record that nobody would argue about?
Next time Kipchoge runs a normal race, you will all be proven wrong, though you won't admit it until about 5 more races have passed. And some will forever claim that he merely declined. -
Bigly Yuge wrote:
2:02-2:03 will be conservative in the next year or so.
Kipchoge will get under 2:02. Bet on it.
There is no way Kipchoge climbs that mountain again if he was paid anywhere near what he was reportedly paid. After Kenyans get financially set they lose interest in running (Komen & Ngeny spring to mind). -
Bad Wigins wrote:
oh please wrote:
Exactly. I think a similar effort in Berlin might yield close to same results
Then why didn't they try it in Berlin and set a real world record that nobody would argue about?
Next time Kipchoge runs a normal race, you will all be proven wrong, though you won't admit it until about 5 more races have passed. And some will forever claim that he merely declined.
Because Berlin hasn't happened since they realized that they were so close? -
Subway Surfers Addiction wrote:
Bigly Yuge wrote:
2:02-2:03 will be conservative in the next year or so.
Kipchoge will get under 2:02. Bet on it.
There is no way Kipchoge climbs that mountain again if he was paid anywhere near what he was reportedly paid. After Kenyans get financially set they lose interest in running (Komen & Ngeny spring to mind).
Kipchoge was financially set in 2003.
