Kwemoi possibly in 1500WR shape

Renato Canova wrote:

So, his times are as follows :

last 400m in 54"7

last 300m in 40"3

last 200m in 26"5

last 100m in 12"7

Sorry Renato, but a couple of those splits are a bit out. Using hand timing down on the track will not be as accurate as using video analysis of the race.

Now the on-screen clock looked to be running c. 0.2 - 0.3 secs fast all night, which is clear at the 100m from home mark, when the infield clock, which looks to be more in line with the official timing, was showing 7:15.6 at the instant Kwemoi was above the 100m line, whereas the clock in the corner of the screen was 0.2sec behind on 7:15.4.

At the point Kwemoi's torso was in line with the finish, the on-screen clock was showing 7:28.4, meaning his last 100m was 13.0.

If you want to use the in-field clock and official time that appeared immediately after he finished, then it was 13.0/13.1.

It's best to use the same timing for each split, and as the onscreen one was clear to read at each 100m interval, this is the best one to use, even if each time was 0.2 - 0.3 secs out.

Kwemoi hit the bell at 6:33.7 (probably 6:34.0 official).

He hit 300m from home at 6:48.5 (6:48.8 if we add on the 0.2/0.3sec residual difference);

200m at 7:01.8 and 100m from home at 7:15.4.

Hence his last 400m - 54.7

300m - 39.9

200m - 26.6

100m - 13.0

His last 4 x 100m went - 14.8, 13.3, 13.6, 13.0

8:14 into the video link below, shows him at the 100m from home line at 7:15.4 into the race according to the screen clock, and 7:15.6 on the infield clock.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cj56vcl3Y6w

8:27 into the video shows him over the line at 7:28.4.

Renato Canova wrote:

Last year, he won the only 10000m of his life (27'33"94 at the end of November in Japan) with the last 200m in 24"6 (he was behind James Wangari with 200m to go, and gave him a gap of 4.6 seconds)

this was a sensational run for a 1500'er !!!

13'57 / 13'36 !!

splits

last 5k at 27'12 pace !!

even then he had stupendous energy left in last lap if 24.6 is correct - 49.2 pace for 400 !!

this is some of race vid :

it was a terrible arrangement !!

it seemed 1/2 of japan turned up to run it !!

Ronnie spent most of race running wide, lapping guys & musta run huge amount extra in distance !!

bottom line : i reckon a perfect route-1 run with 0 extra distance run & even-pace from gun-tape he couda gone

~ 27'10 - 27'20

assuming he still has that endurance, his recent 30 x 200 workout at altitude with final 200 of 23.3 !!! definitely indicates speed in 47.0 - 48.0 range for open fully rested 400 at sea-level

some estimates for his current shape if in likely current :

47.0 - 48.0 / 27'10 - 27'20

->

48.00 / 27'10 - 27'20 ->

1'43.41 - 1'43.58

2'12.24 - 2'12.53

3'26.49 - 3'27.10

7'20.75 - 7'22.63

12'48.70 - 12'52.63

47.75 / 27'10 - 27'20 ->

1'43.02 - 1'43.19

2'11.79 - 2'12.08

3'25.93 - 3'26.55

7'20.05 - 7'21.93

12'48.03 - 12'51.95

47.50 / 27'10 - 27'20 ->

1'42.62 - 1'42.80

2'11.35 - 2'11.63

3'25.38 - 3'26.00

7'19.35 - 7'21.22

12'47.36 - 12'51.28

47.25 / 27'10 - 27'20 ->

1'42.23 - 1'42.40

2'10.90 - 2'11.18

3'24.83 - 3'25.44

7'18.65 - 7'20.52

12'46.68 - 12'50.61

47.00 / 27'10 - 27'20 ->

1'41.84 - 1'42.01

2'10.45 - 2'10.74

3'24.28 - 3'24.89

7'17.94 - 7'19.82

12'46.01 - 12'49.93

i'd say it's absolutely 100% certain he is already in 1500 WR shape & my experienced eye draws me to the 47.50 / 27'10 - 27'20 set

if he stays uninjured, either this year or next, he definitely can break 1k/1500/mile/2k/3k WRs !!!

Canova, just 3 questions :

- what 10k shape do you think he was in japan race late last year ?

- what 10k shape you reckon he is in now ?

- what rested 400 from-the-blocks shape do you reckon he is at sea-level currently ?

Calculo

You boast of an experienced eye and you assert that Kwemoi can break records from 1000m to 3000m. However, you have have said this about MANY athletes and you are usually WRONG. Kwemoi ran a nice 3000m but it was no more impressive than what Alamirew, for example, has done. Kwemoi is very good but he has no chance at setting any world records. That does not mean he cannot be a champion, however.

Peppers pot wrote:

Calculo

You boast of an experienced eye and you assert that Kwemoi can break records from 1000m to 3000m. However, you have have said this about MANY athletes and you are usually WRONG. Kwemoi ran a nice 3000m but it was no more impressive than what Alamirew, for example, has done. Kwemoi is very good but he has no chance at setting any world records. That does not mean he cannot be a champion, however.

Usually wrong! More like 99% wrong.

If you listen to him then about 2 dozen middle distance guys have been capable of 1:41 for 800, and havve only not done so for a myriad of lame excuses.

His 'experienced eye' is a joke. He couldn't even locate the start line of a 1500m race the other year in France when Iguider set the world lead.

This.

You've got him running anywhere between 1:41.84 to 1:43.41 yet he only managed to run 1:48 and was run out in the heats at the AK champs last year running 4th in 1:51. How has this guy suddenly morphed in to a 1:42 man?

I think you've truely over estimated his 400m speed is likely to be 48.5 at best...and means he is not close to 1500m WR shape.

he certainly can

if he gets perfect run

very little chance of "perfect run" nowdays with peanuts paid to pacers & therefore rubbish pacers

Komen got 4'53 pace 20y ago & now the pacers can't offer better than 5'03 rubbish !!!

is this a joke ???

the ethiopian is a full-time 3k/5k guy but not in his wildest dreams coud he dream of finishing a 7'28 in 13-flat !!!

the ethiopian certainly was in 7'23/7'24 shape at the time

Ronnie looks closer to 7'20 !!!

& what analysis are you offering ???

3'28.8 at 18y, now 3y later & uninjured/healthy with 3y of maturity/improving strength

what is your argument that a 3'28.8 guy at 18y has no chance of running < 3'26 at peak of career ???

i have no interest if he wins a gold

i'm interested in how fast he can run

depends on conditions/pacing

you came up with joke of mo never being capable of ever running 3'31 & it was told to you that 3'28 was possible

many never tried such as hicham/Bernie/Noah/Silas at their peak

or guys like Asbel chose to run much more prestigious 1500 when in peak shape over 1500

Asbel even thrashed nigel in a 800 when nijel ran a route-1 ~ 1'41.4 that year !!!

soulemain ran ~ 1'41-mid in perfect route-1/paced to bell, in his 1'42.97 if route-1

the number of woeful run 800s by elites is numerous

only beneficiary of all this bad luck to history of event is Rudisha who possesses the WR

if not for Kip's bad luck of suicidal pacing of 23.0 !!!! & 48.3 !!! in zurich-'97, Rudisha wouda been chasing a clocking of

~ 1'40-flat/low

anyone with analytical ability woud realise that 1'41+ clockings are nothing special in context of what the WR shouda been in synthetic track era

is this a joke ?

what are you talking about ?

where is any post of mine related to any such topic ?

Asbel even thrashed nigel in a 800 when nijel ran a route-1 ~ 1'41.4 that year !!!

No, Nijel ran 1:42.5 in 2014 and just because someone beats someone else in a race doesn't mean their PB should therefore be faster. Otherwise Kip Keino should be the unofficial 1500m WR holder, no?

soulemain ran ~ 1'41-mid in perfect route-1/paced to bell

No, he didn't

if not for Kip's bad luck of suicidal pacing of 23.0 !!!! & 48.3 !!! in zurich-'97, Rudisha wouda been chasing a clocking of

~ 1'40-flat/low

No, he wouldn't

anyone with analytical ability woud realise that 1'41+ clockings are nothing special in context of what the WR shouda been in synthetic track era

Yes, they are

Watch Alamirew indoors in Stuttgart and outdoors at Doha in 2011. These are as impressive as anything Kwemoi has done.

Hand-timing at the track is going to be more accurate than on a video because the video usually does not allow you to see exactly when they are crossing a line. Perspective is going to cause errors.

This may be your most ridiculous claim yet, that Kwemoi is in shape to break the 1k/1500m/mile/3k records based on one very good 100m in a 7:28.73 race that was 8 seconds off the world record.

i suggest you learn logic

as i have no firm idea if he is at quick end or slow end of 47.0 - 48.0 or 27'10 - 27'20, then that is the spread of possible times

is this not obvious ???

it shoud teach you that basic 400 speed is hugely important for any event 800 to even 10k

that's why i asked out his coach

i've seen a 1'49.7 in march last year at altitude when obviously just using this as a training run

so how you state he has run a 1'48 is bewildering ?!

i don't know which race this is

it's not trials where there were 3 semis for 800 & Ronnie not in any

not any other meets i can find him running a 800

kindly offer it

because if you can run

23.3

for 30th rep of a series of 200s at sapping high altitude, you can 100% run

47.0 - 48.0

for a fully rested 1-off 400 at sea-level

that combined with likely

27'10 - 27'10

current endurance means you have capability of

~ 1'42+

no

you don't run 3'28.8 at 18y off 48.5 speed

you cannot build enough endurance by that age, so it has to speed dominated, natural speed at 18y

at mid-20s it is possible with decade+ of endurance in bank but not possible at 18y

if he was a white boy running 3'28.8 at 18y & it was suggested he had only 48.5 speed, you'd be laughed out of here !!!

don't assume all Kenyans have crap speed

Korir ran 44.67 off jog to 200

he is capable at sea-level flat-out of

44-flat

& he doesn't even train for 400 !!!

no

he is 100% capable of 1500 record if he gets even pace & smoothly drafted to bell in ~ 2'31.0 - 2'31.5

tony the tiger wrote:

Here we go again ..

When will you guys ever learn ?

the same story every single year ..

This dude is gonna smoke Mo , that dude will make him beg for mercy ..blah blah blah blah

Mo Farah is the best distance runner in the world at the moment , its a FACT !

Keep it up tho, this is entertaining AF LOL

Sir Mo was Mobliterated by the speedy Scot Callum Hawkins at a cross country race earlier this year. The pudgy, lazy and out-of-shape SlowMo was left muddy in a ditch by the side of the trail.

Sir Mo is not pudgy or lazy now.

Sir Mo is in shape now.

Sir Mo is now ready to destroy the world at 5000m and 10000m in 2017.

Look carefully at this video of Sir Mo and Charlie Grice training on the track in Sedona, Arizona

Did you see the other runners who were running in the other direction on the track?

One of the other runners on the track is the most exciting female human runner on this planet at the present time:

1) The Speedy 'wee' Scot Laura Muir... from her high altitude training base in Flagstaff, Arizona.

Oh yeah!!!!!!!!!!!!

Happy Birthday to Laura Muir.

Go Laura Muir!!!

zxvxzcv wrote:This may be your most ridiculous claim yet, that Kwemoi is in shape to break the 1k/1500m/mile/3k records based on one very good 100m in a 7:28.73 race that was 8 seconds off the world record.

learn logic

it is immaterial what 3k WR is, we are talking about 1500wr

the 3k couda been extinct event as non-outdoor medal one & it matters 0 if the WR for it was 7'10 or 7'30

as it happens, Komen, in his 3'46.3 ran appalling race in a criminally large field in berlin-'97, baulked twice at start !!!, turned virtually straight right into lane 3 !!! early on 1st bend , did lot of effective pacing & kicked in a 54-low finish !!!

ideal race that day, route-1 from gun at even pace, he wouda run

3'43+

all that matters is what Ronnie ran & circumstances such as easy 13-flat finish

it is simply what his fast finish in a 7'28 coud indicate for 1500 ability

more relevantly, what his current open 400 & 3k or possibly even 10k indicates for 1500

logic indicates we have to speed up possible 3k or 1500 time depending on speed of kick

here is some logic for you to ponder :

if a guy runs a 7'28.73 with following last 100, assuming even pace to 2900m, at what last 100 do you think it is inevitable that he coud run 3'25.9 or 7'20.5 ?

13.5 ?

13.0 ?

12.5 ?

...

11.0 ?

if a guy ever in future history ran even pace thru 2900 & kicked in

11.0

for last 100 for a 7'28.73 clocking, woud you still argue that it is possible that the guy is NOT at even pace for 1500 or 3k in at least :

3'25.9 or 7'20.5 shape ?...

Sorry - the 1:48 was a typo, should have read 1:49 (1:49.7 as you stated).

I've run 30x200 as a workout many times, so I know exactly what is needed to complete such a session and the 23.3 at the end doesn't indicate to me that he can run 47.0

------

you don't run 3'28.8 at 18y off 48.5 speed

you cannot build enough endurance by that age, so it has to speed dominated, natural speed at 18y

---------

We don't know for a fact that he was 18y, nor his lifetime mileage to date when he ran that time, so you're comments have no foundation to make a conclusive comment on.

I'll stand by my estimate that he can not run any quicker than 48.5 out of blocks for a 400 (fully rested if you so wish).

zxvxzcv wrote:

Hand-timing at the track is going to be more accurate than on a video because the video usually does not allow you to see exactly when they are crossing a line. Perspective is going to cause errors.

Hand timing is always going to be about 0.2 secs out. If you are on the infield or even in the stands of the stadium, you are never going to be able to be right on the 100m from home line and the finish line to take an accurate split.

For this particular race there is clear visibility of when Kwemoi is at the 100m line and when he crosses the finish. It was 13.0 for the last 100m, possibly 13.1.

The correct number is 3:24.9 by Jim Ryun.

OK???