2017 Payton Jordan Invitational

Derrick injured again? Or maybe ducking Hawkins after the NYC half?

Runner pants on fire wrote:

Derrick injured again? Or maybe ducking Hawkins after the NYC half?

He's one of the pavers for the Breaking2 thing. Besides, he already has both the 5 and 10 Worlds standards.

Pissed Cleric wrote:

Runner pants on fire wrote:

Derrick injured again? Or maybe ducking Hawkins after the NYC half?

He's one of the pavers for the Breaking2 thing. Besides, he already has both the 5 and 10 Worlds standards.

NO. I want him to out kick Galen Rupp for the USATF 10k title

Really excited for the 5k this year.

I remember watching years ago, fully expecting Rupp to break the AR in the 10k and then Solinsky came out of nowhere to grab the victory. The best event I've ever seen on FloTrack. Great commentating by Fenton on Flotrack, Alex wasn't too bad either, but these new cats plus incredible off putting prices equal my viewership is gone.

Back to 2017 projections... 13:10 for Hunter? That would be awesome, and hopefully in his range some day, but lets get under 13:40 or 13:30 first... If he goes 13:32 or so I would be pleased. Will the race even go under 13 minutes? True and Blankenship are over in Doha and Derrick and Lagat are in Europe, with Rupp not running, is there anyone in the race to push the pace?

afromanmiler2 wrote:

Really excited for the 5k this year.

I remember watching years ago, fully expecting Rupp to break the AR in the 10k and then Solinsky came out of nowhere to grab the victory. The best event I've ever seen on FloTrack. Great commentating by Fenton on Flotrack, Alex wasn't too bad either, but these new cats plus incredible off putting prices equal my viewership is gone.

Back to 2017 projections... 13:10 for Hunter? That would be awesome, and hopefully in his range some day, but lets get under 13:40 or 13:30 first... If he goes 13:32 or so I would be pleased. Will the race even go under 13 minutes? True and Blankenship are over in Doha and Derrick and Lagat are in Europe, with Rupp not running, is there anyone in the race to push the pace?

I can't imagine this race being anywhere close to a sub 13 race. I just gave things a quick overview, but Ches seems like the only one who may have the ability too. Don't see that happening unless there were 5-6 other guys ready to do the same thing.

10k field much better, it seems.

Tracktown Pizza wrote:

douglas burke wrote:

He probably meant, he is sticking with the 1500 for the event he will run at World's, he is probably just going to run this to beat his fathers time (13:12 which will be easy for him) interesting race, hopefully all 3 break 13:10 which is good this early in the season.

No one will break 13:10 at PJ. Sorry to burst your bubble. Mead going for 27:30 in the 10k, however.

It's happened before and it could very well happen again. Ches isn't even a true miler and he ran 3:52 indoors, he's gotta be fit enough for a sub 13:10 by now. Centro I think could also run like 13:07ish.

Yeah meant to say I don't see the race going under 13:10, even if Ches is talented enough to go lower, there just isn't anyone else in the race.

MR

afromanmiler2 wrote:

Yeah meant to say I don't see the race going under 13:10, even if Ches is talented enough to go lower, there just isn't anyone else in the race.

MR

This could be good for Hunter. More guys in his range to race with

I see the 5K being run at 13:20 pace with a sub-60 last lap. - Sorry!

Exactly. That is better for him than 13:05-13:10 pace

BS Detector Alert!!! wrote:

Drew Hunter is also listed as "Unattached"

What do you mean unattached? He's got a hot distance star girlfriend (I'll keep her name out of this)!

It's a bit much to expect him to get anywhere near 13:10 when his best 5k, in a road race last fall, was 13:56. Maybe his number one priority might be to nab the honor of being the #1 5k runner in his own home. That means he'd have to break his pop's 13:36.70 5k PR. That would be a great time for a 19 year old running his first track 5k ever. Hope he gets it, even if he's in 10th place.

No matter what the time, my guess is that this race will be good for Hunter. A cross-country flight. A big meet where he's not #1. A distance he likely will embrace as he matures. Gaining great experience. He hasn't dodged the big boys yet, and he will be in with some fatcats at Payton Jordon.

A link to the 5k entries was already given above. I've copied them below. Quite a few studs running, in two heats:

Event 19 Men 5000 Meter Run (40)

1 George-Byron Alex Skechers/Ana

2 Mohamed Ali Global Sport

3 eric avila Hoka One One

4 Nathan Brannen Nike

5 Luc Bruchet Asics/Canada

6 Donn Cabral Hoka Njnytc

7 Kemoy Campbell New Balance

8 Matthew Centrowitz Unattached

9 Edward Cheserek Oregon

10 Adam Clarke Melbourne Tr

11 Tommy Curtin Saucony

12 Staffan EK Hälle IF

13 Jonathan Harper BYU

14 Garrett Heath Brooks Beast

15 Andrew Heyes Global Sport

16 Mohamed Hrezi Hansons-BROO

17 Drew Hunter Unattached

18 Justyn Knight Syracuse

19 Matthew Leach Strava TC /

20 Will Leer Brooks

21 Rory Linkletter BYU

22 Riley Masters Unattached

23 Morgan McDonald Wisconsin

24 Sam McEntee Melbourne Tr

25 Kyle Merber Hoka One One

26 Rob Mullett Atlanta Trac

27 Florian Orth LG Telis Fin

28 Morgan Pearson 361

29 Erik Peterson Butler

30 Ross Proudfoot Unattached

31 Jack Rayner Melbourne Tr

32 Brett Robinson Melbourne Tr

33 Jim Rosa Atlanta Trac

34 Alfredo Santana adidas Garde

35 Brian Shrader Unattached

36 Mike Tate Southern Uta

37 Amon Terer Campbell

38 Nick Willis adidas

39 Daniel Winn BAA

40 Clayton Young BYU

Interested to see leer, rosa, and merber the most. Best of luck to all running

Why are two 1500 meter runners running the 5000 meter event?

Hassan and Centro.

Are they just using the race as a tune-up, or both runners are thinking about moving to 5k in the future?

Centro looked terrible in the 2mile event at the Millrose games.

scorpion_runner wrote:

Why are two 1500 meter runners running the 5000 meter event?

Hassan and Centro.

Like runners of the past, the present, and the future, these two, and lots of their 5k competitors this coming Friday, are not confined to one event forever and are willing to think in terms that are not comprehended by others (terms including potential, enjoyment, challenge, and training benefit…oh, and $ for the lucky few). Look at some of the others on that list of entrants. Many are not anchored to one event. Go back through the T&F News annual rankings and see numerous individuals who run both the 1500 and the 5000 in the same calendar year.

Nick Willis, two-time Olympic medalist in the 1500, is in the Payton Jordan 5k. But WHY??? Must stick to one event!

3:57 indoor miler Morgan McDonald is in this race. But WHY?? Or WHY would he have run an indoor mile when his outdoor 5k best is already 13:29. Must stick to one event!

Somewhat similar is Grant Fisher, impressive recently in a 13:37 5k in which he took off down the stretch for a brilliant win, ran a 1500 a couple of weeks earlier. But WHY??? Must stick to one event!

Kyle Merber, 2nd in the Wanamaker Mile at the Millrose Games, is in this race. But WHY??? Must stick to one event!

Drew Hunter, who ran 3:56 indoors this past winter, is in this race. But WHY??? Must stick to one event!

Oh yeah, let's not forget King Ches, he of a low-3:52 indoors. But WHY did he run that race, as we all know he is a 5k/10k machine??? Must stick to one, I mean, two events!

Etc., etc.

If the pace is hot, I can see Justyn Knight going sub 13.20.

If they aren't going to run 13:10, why run the race? Why not just stay home and keep training? What is this, 1965?

When heat sheets? Then we can see who is serious about what!

Devil Dog wrote:

If they aren't going to run 13:10, why run the race? Why not just stay home and keep training? What is this, 1965?

1965, Devil Dog??

In this field of 40 (well, 39, since Nick Willis has scratched), how many are even capable of 13:10? So these 39 shouldn't run in the race unless they are 13:10-capable? Only five have broken 13:20.

A detailed pre-race analysis from Dennis Young is on FloTrack at:

In case you can't access it, here's the poop copied from the above link:

Payton Men's 5K Preview: How Fast Can Edward Cheserek Run An All-Out 5K?

Men's 5K

Worlds standard: 13:22.60

USAs standard: 13:32.00

Who: Edward Cheserek, Matt Centrowitz, Kyle Merber, Justyn Knight, Nate Brannen, Garrett Heath, Drew Hunter, Will Leer, Riley Masters, Luc Bruchet, Kemoy Campbell, Tommy Curtin, Sam McEntee, Morgan McDonald, Morgan Pearson, Erik Peterson, Jim Rosa, Mike Tate, Amon Terer, Daniel Winn

When: 9:10 PM PT (Heat 1)

Notes: Nick Willis is listed in the entries, but he has scratched. And Centrowitz is unconfirmed.

Why: This is the outdoor analogue to Cheserek's spectacular indoor mile, where he was rabbited to a 3:52.01 collegiate record. Andy Powell is giving Cheserek one record shot a season this year, and this is it for outdoor. Believe it or not, Cheserek's 5K PR is still from the NCAA final his freshman year, when he and Lawi Lalang both ran 13:18 in an epic battle to the finish line. Lalang's winning time is still the NCAA outdoor meet record.

That was in an unpaced race, where the primary goal was to win, two days after running a hard 10K, and with just one year of collegiate training under his legs. First of all, rabbits are the most overrated thing on our sport. Second, what can Ches run in perfect conditions when the entire goal is to run fast? The obvious marks to watch for are Henry Rono's outdoor collegiate record of 13:08.4 (run in a dual meet in 1978) and Lawi Lalang's absolute collegiate record of 13:08.24 (run at Millrose in 2012). Additionally, Oregon distance coach Andy Powell has emphasized the importance of Oregon school records. The Ducks list the late Bill McChesney's 13:14.80 from 1982 as their school record.

The case for King Ches setting the CR

His mile (3:52.01) and 3K (7:40.51) PRs are worth almost exactly the same amount of points on the IAAF scoring tables. The mile is worth between 1175 and 1176; the 3K is worth between 1173 and 1174. The 5K times from 1173 to 1176 range are 13:09 and 13:10. That seems like a safe floor for the King.

Here are two more data points, though always beware the transitive property in distance running:

-Three weeks after Cheserek pushed Lalang to the line at 2014 NCAAs, Lalang ran 13:03.

-Cheserek owned Eric Jenkins during Jenkins's senior year. Jenkins ran 13:07 that summer.

Less rigorously, it's just really hard to imagine that Cheserek hasn't improved more than ten seconds with triple the amount of collegiate training. If nine months of Powell's higher mileage and harder workouts got him from an 8:39 high school two miler (north of 13:20 5k pace) to 13:18, 36 more months has to be worth ten seconds. He was probably ready to run 13:10 in 2014. Conservatively, he's ready to run 13:05 in 2017.

The case against

There are really only two points against, but they're both substantive. Cheserek has never chased a time in a race longer than two miles; he's an experienced racer, but he's not an experienced time trialer. And check out the top PRs in the field. No one has broken 13:10, and very few have broken 13:20. Campbell, Heath, and Masters all ran their outdoor PRs at Payton in 2015, though Campbell did run 13:14 this indoor season. The only other man in the field under 13:20, Brett Robinson, set his still-standing PR in 2013, though he did run 13:19 last year and 13:22 earlier this year. But the field could mean that this race is won in closer to 13:15 than 13:05.

Athlete PR Nation/college

Kemoy Campbell 13:14 JAM

Garrett Heath 13:16 USA

Riley Masters 13:17 USA

Brett Robinson 13:18 AUS

Edward Cheserek 13:18 KEN/USA/Oregon

Matthew Centrowitz 13:20 USA

Sam McEntee 13:20 AUS

Will Leer 13:21 USA

Florian Orth 13:23 GER

Luc Bruchet 13:24 CAN

Justyn Knight 13:26 CAN/Syracuse

Tommy Curtin 13:27 USA

Ross Proudfoot 13:27 CAN

Morgan McDonald 13:29 AUS/Wisconsin

Brian Shrader 13:29 USA

George-Byron Alex 13:29 USA

OK, we get it, FloTrack loves Ches, what about everyone else?

Glad you asked!

-Olympic gold medalist Centrowitz hasn't raced since mid-February, and he's pulled out of meets already this outdoor season, so he's a question mark. We'll have more info as the meet gets closer, especially when official heat sheets are released on Wednesday. But fingers crossed that Centro runs, because if he does, it will be fascinating. He ran 13:20 at Payton in 2014, and said after that race that he was down to run one 5K a year. He hasn't run one since.

-Watch out for the 13:22.60 IAAF World Championships qualifying standard.

-According to Tilastopaja, this is the first track 5K for Kyle Merber since 2010. Merber has actually finished second to Cheserek twice this year, in a 7:49 3K and 3:52 mile indoors. He's a major question mark in the event.

-This is Drew Hunter's track 5K debut. His truncated high school senior season meant that he barely got to show off his strength in 2016, but he ran a 7:59 3K indoors to break Cheserek's high school national record.

-Justyn Knight's 13:26 5K PR is from last summer, when he outkicked Galen Rupp. Only nine collegians (and none since Lalang and Cheserek three years ago) have broken 13:20 during the season.

-Knight might not even be the top Canadian in the field, as 2016 Olympians Nate Brannen and Luc Bruchet are scheduled to run.

-Morgan Pearson ran 13:32 on the roads last November, beating Shadrack Kipchirchir, Woody Kincaid, Lalang, and Hunter. He hasn't raced longer than two miles on the track in 2017 and could be ready for a breakout race.

-Campbell's 13:20 from this meet two years ago is the Jamaican record. Considering that he ran 13:14 indoors, it's safe to say that his national record is in dnager.

How To Watch

ON TV: Now available on Roku and Apple TV 4 -- download the FloSports app today!

STREAMING: Available only on FloTrack.

Narrow Mind wrote:

Kyle Merber, 2nd in the Wanamaker Mile at the Millrose Games, is in this race. But WHY??? Must stick to one event.

why must runners stick to one event early or late season. Sure running your best event at Nats is the way to go but IMO shorter and over distance races can be part of a well thought out year long training plan.

Early season coming off distance based training block and having a PR from 2010 would make me believe he can drop 30-45 seconds off his 5ooom PR by being in a race where the front pack would reasonably be out chasing a sub 13:22 Worlds Q Time.

Similar can be said with varying specifics for others in the race.