Shimmy Mack wrote:
I want to bump this thread ahead of the fall majors, would love to keep it going...
1. Rupp (not going anywhere)
2. Biwott (will eventually run 2:08)
3. Scott Smith (I like this dude a lot)
If any of those bros stumble, then there's Jared Ward.
Chris Derrick (if he can stay healthy) will be in the mix, as will Fauble, Matt Llano, Bumby, Droddy, and wouldn't it be rad if Abdi (at 43) or Lagat (at 45!) were up in the cut?
Also, what are the chances that 1) Ches becomes an American citizen by the Trials and 2) moves up to the marathon?
I kind of agree with in theory with your top three:
(1) Rupp -- obvious
(2) Random African born American. I know Biwott has placed well recently, but there is nothing in his background/history to suggest that he has a 2:08 in him and turns 35 in 2020. It is more likely that one of the current or former WCAP guys will make the team. I would have said Chelanga (as the earlier post from 2017 did) if he hadn't retired.
(3) Random American-born guy. Scott managed a 2:12 under perfect conditions and turns 34 in 2020. Derrick, Bumby, Fauble, Luke P., etc. are a better choice to make it click on Trials day. If Jim Walmsley goes for it, he could be in the mix with these guys (I wonder if he will train with the NAZ Elite guys after he goes into Marathon mode). If Tyler Day moves up, he could be someone with a shot.
In other words, after Rupp -- it is wide open. There is no other guy right now that is a clear sub 2:10 guy in 2020. If Ritz gets healthy and gets in the training, he could make it.