rfmaioral wrote:
I would agree with the 400m hurdles as the strongest track WR.
in fact i would say that the three strongest records are probably:
400m hurdles > 100m > 110m Hurdles
and then for the field is indeed the Long Jump. For me these are the two strongest men's records (i will leave the throws, race walk and decathlon out of the analysis as i understand little about them).
To support my argument I'll actually 'eliminate' the other records based on three questions?
i) can we can think of a similar historical performance that could have been better than the record itself?
ii) is the next mark very very close to the WR?
iii) do we see any athletes that have tried to break the record recently or could be breaking the record soon?
* Bolt's 200m is very strong but i guess it fails in "ii". Considering their 100m bests and the fact that Bolt himself has said many times he could have lowered his 200m record, i guess this record is maybe safe for the next years, but could certainly have been much lower.
* I guess we all agree Niekerk himself could be the 1st man to dip under 43.00. We've also seen MJ split a 42.9. A very strong record indeed but i don't see why it couldn't be bettered soon.
* Rudisha's 800m for me fails in "i". Wilson Kipketer 1:41"2 is at the very least at the same performance level of Rudisha's 1:40"9, considering how bad was the pacing. Probably a 1'40"5.
* El Guerrouj fails in iii. Kiprop had a shot at this record.
* Komen's 3000m is very interesting. Indeed a very very strong record but I guess we all agree that with his 3:28 speed Mo Farah had at least a shot at it. It is common to argue pro Komen that nobody has ever run close to that time, however El Guerrouj tried to break this WR just once and with very bad pacing has produced a 7:23.Had him tried once again with better pacing he could've gone 7.19-7.21.
* Bekele's 12:37 falls in the same scenario of Komen's. Mo Farah would have a shot at it if he tried. Komen could've run faster maybe.
* Then we have the 10 000m. This is now rarely run event and i guess Bekele's record will be long standing, but we can't put this in front of his own 5000m when Bekele himself has said that this record could have been faster if he wasn't sick a few days before.
* Kipchoge and Bekele are jeopardizing the Marathon WR and could certainly do the same for the HM... if they tried. Kamworor performance in the last HM WC was also on pair with Tadese's WR considering his fall and the weather. So i guess HM and Marathon fail in i), ii) and iii).
* Steeplechase, for sure no. It fails in "ii", plus a few athletes have seen this record within reach in the last 5 years.
* 110m hurdles is very recent but i believe a very strong record. Merritt is 0.07 ahed of the next mark, not as good as Bolt's 100m but still considerable.
For jumps:
i would agree for sure with the Long Jump and for that i'll eliminate the others.
* Triple Jump. True that Edward's 18.29 is there for 22 years now, but remember we had Christian Taylor getting very very close with 18.21 and less aided by the wind (+0.2 whereas Edward +1.2). And we also have Pichardo from Cuba who's jumped twice over 18.00. In fact, I believe the TJ is the WR who is more likely to fall in the next one or two years.
* High Jump. We had a few attempts to break Sotomayor's WR from at least 2 athletes. I guess that's a very strong criteria to determine which record is the strongest. When the record is completely out of sight we don't see that.
* Pole Vault is interesting as nobody was close to Bubka's until Lavillenie, who's done better indoor than outdoor. I guess it is too recent and particular for a decent analysis but history can prove that his 6.16 is one of the strongest records.
as i said i am leaving out the throws, the decathlon, race walk and the relays.