Zero percent of females,
0.001% of males? So like of the 3.5b on the planet, maybe 35k could do it if properly trained in their peak years? Less? More?
Zero percent of females,
0.001% of males? So like of the 3.5b on the planet, maybe 35k could do it if properly trained in their peak years? Less? More?
There's 7.5b people not 3.5b.
Of what relevance is the female population?
Also OP is using one significant digit and rounding down. If anyone sees any reason for greater precision, please state why.
you're better of asking for a number of how many rather than a percent. the percentage will be very small
Did I not present the data in both ways already?
too many humans wrote:
There's 7.5b people not 3.5b.
and 70 billion farm animals using all our water, crop and land.
Are we including animals as part of the population?
I have to think many four legged animals could do this. Cheetah, Tiger, Lion, Horse just to name a few.
Don't forget bacteria riding air currents
It's an easier question if its not less than or equal to a 4:00.n mile and is instead just less than 4 flat. I don't know if there's much data on who can get under 4:01.
485 men from the US have run sub 4 as of late feb 2017 according to T&F news.
The US population is roughly 326 million.
485/326,000,000 = roughly 0.00000148%. So about 1/672,000 people.
Too hard to find good data about worldwide sub-4s. I don't know that it would be fair to assume the rest of the world has conditions which would allow them to train for the feat, so worldwide it's probably a lower percentage.
I've thought about this a lot. I spent the better part of four years trying to get close and wasn't even within 10 seconds of going sub 4. There are a lot of ways to look at it for the US. I think the OP is pretty close.
Checking the TFRRS 2016 list 23 guys were under 3:42.22 (1.08 conversion factor) in the 1500. Throw in 20-25 professional guys, 5k guys that didn't run the 1500 that year, etc and lets say there is at maximum 50 guys in a given year that can go sub 4.
How many soccer/basketball/lacrosse/etc players could go sub 4 if they focused solely on running? Would it double the number of sub 4 guys in a given year? I doubt it, but maybe.
How many people have access to great, consistent training? Good shoes? Proper nutrition? Soft surfaces for easy days and a track? A structured team environment? Would this double the number of sub 4 milers again? I doubt it, but maybe.
Based on these two factors, I think you could feasibly argue an alternate reality where there are 200 guys going sub 4 every year in the US.
There are roughly 32mm American men between the ages of 20-34. This works out .000625%, a little more than half the OPs estimate. It is roughly 1 in 160,000.
It seems like it should be way higher than that but my personal experience in bias is a factor. My initial reaction is that maybe 1 in 100 guys could do it if they had access to perfect training conditions. That is clearly not the case. Maybe 1 in 100 guys I knew through HS/college track did it.
Last thought is that a "balanced" sub 4 guy can probably split 50/51 on a 4x400 and run 14:20-14:30 in the 5k? How many people have the raw speed to run that fast for a 400? Maybe 1 in 100? How many people have the body type, muscle fiber make-up, and natural aerobic capacity to run 14:20? Maybe 1 in 500? The two are not mutually exclusive but they are not that related. This works out to .002%, or roughly 1 in 50000.
Is n any integer in this scenario?
4:00.9 and 4:00.0 will have different answers.
[quote]Hobby troller wrote:
What % of the population could run a
statz wrote:
too many humans wrote:There's 7.5b people not 3.5b.
and 70 billion farm animals using all our water, crop and land.
very good point
What's your ballpark estimate for the delta in percentage of population that could be trained to break 4:01 but not 4:00 ?
Is it a track mile, or can it be downhill? That expands the possible demographic even more.
"485 men from the US have run sub 4 as of late feb 2017 according to T&F news.
The US population is roughly 326 million."
This is bad math. I assume 485 men have done it ALL TIME from the US. You can't calculate an all-time figure against a current population figure.
Probably the best way to estimate is to take the number of men who can currently run sub-4 and calculate that against the current US population, and then extrapolate.
So, how many do we have here in the US? Generously, maybe 100? Extrapolating, that gives us a little over 1,900 worldwide. But I think that's too generous - both the number of current sub-4 milers in the US, and the ability of other regions in the world to field sub-4 runners at the same rate. Obviously, some countries will be able to field them at a higher rate, but most will field them at a lower rate. So, let's adjust.
Let's say that we have 75 sub-4 guys in the US. And let's say that the worldwide rate for fielding sub-4 milers is 75% of what the US can do. That gives us a little under 1,100 men worldwide. I'd round down to 1,000 and call it good.
It sounds about right, doesn't it? Roughly 1,000 men in the world right now who could break 4 for the mile.
I believe the question in the OP didn't ask how many in the world currently could run
Last year 51 people ran 4:00 mile in College in the US ift hat puts things into perspective.
Hobby troller wrote:
Zero percent of females,
0.001% of males? So like of the 3.5b on the planet, maybe 35k could do it if properly trained in their peak years? Less? More?
I actually was thinking the same. If all males trained for and focused on the mile 1 in 10,000 seems reasonable. Obviously no females. I'm also assuming no doping.
Probably some of those horses could break 4. I doubt and cows and likely no sheep could.