I actually think this is a really fun question to think about. Especially if you assume he gets his US citizenship.
He will have a very tough time making a world or olympic team in the 5k. He's obviously talented and is dominating the college ranks, but the pros are at an entirely different level than both him and his competition.
Paul Chelimo!, True, Kipchirchir, Jenkins, Mead, Hill, Jager, Chelanga, Korir...heck, I think that Lagat would still be in the mix if he chose to unretire from the track (heck, he was 5th in the olympics!). Where does Ches fall among that group? I would not put him top 3
What about the 10k? or the mile? I suppose that at the moment, he doesn't seem to be focused on a single event because of team points. That being said, I think Ches has a ways to go before any of the pros look at him as the guy to beat.
How good will Edward Cheserek be once he leaves Oregon?
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AS and NOP hopefully will sign him. Good runner at middle distance with world class closing speed. Could be Sir. Mo Farrah 2.0.
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fatbuttdisease wrote:
I actually think this is a really fun question to think about. Especially if you assume he gets his US citizenship.
He will have a very tough time making a world or olympic team in the 5k. He's obviously talented and is dominating the college ranks, but the pros are at an entirely different level than both him and his competition.
Paul Chelimo!, True, Kipchirchir, Jenkins, Mead, Hill, Jager, Chelanga, Korir...heck, I think that Lagat would still be in the mix if he chose to unretire from the track (heck, he was 5th in the olympics!). Where does Ches fall among that group? I would not put him top 3
What about the 10k? or the mile? I suppose that at the moment, he doesn't seem to be focused on a single event because of team points. That being said, I think Ches has a ways to go before any of the pros look at him as the guy to beat.
Ches isn't the guy to beat. But odds are he is a 13:05/27:20 type runner if he runs a time trial. In the US that means there are only 1 or 2 guys that are clearly better than you and a half dozen that are your equal. If the race gets tactical, he has a faster 1500m than most of the field. After that it is who is having a good day. -
Gregor99 wrote:
He will be great, he will be fast, he will win he will not be popular with most American people.
He's no Mo Farah, Meb Keflezighi, Ashton Eaton or Mohammed Ahmed (BTC)
those guys are likeable by everybody. Ed is likeable by 50% of the population LOL
It's hard to go through the Oregon distance program and be loved by everyone. Galen Rupp is a perfect example.
Ches has been so good, part of you loves to hate him. It is odd he never has run at a national championship to try and make a team. But I think that's because he is holding out for becoming an American citizen. if he starts running at world's and does well, people will see him different. -
Donald Johnson (DOJO) wrote:
He has shown great range and his ability to close in championship races is unparalleled in NCAA history. Assuming he gets US citizenship how good do you think he can be? His best event now is probably the 5k.
I think he can be a world beater with the right coaching/mentorship. He destroyed Lawi Lalang indoors the summer after Lawi ran 13:00 and the season he ran 3:52. That was three years ago. Since then the most notable occurrences are when he DOESN'T win. He ran 13:18 three years ago in a championship race and has run 3:52 already this year. I expect he will run under 13 for 5k if he time trials this year.
I wonder to. If the Oregon factor of over racing to score points comes into play he may become just another good runner but not shine. Yea, make a few teams, win a couple of road races but maybe not the world beater we hoped to see. -
Donald Johnson (DOJO) wrote:
He has shown great range and his ability to close in championship races is unparalleled in NCAA history. Assuming he gets US citizenship how good do you think he can be? His best event now is probably the 5k.
I think he can be a world beater with the right coaching/mentorship. He destroyed Lawi Lalang indoors the summer after Lawi ran 13:00 and the season he ran 3:52. That was three years ago. Since then the most notable occurrences are when he DOESN'T win. He ran 13:18 three years ago in a championship race and has run 3:52 already this year. I expect he will run under 13 for 5k if he time trials this year.
I agree, I say be breaks 13 this summer. I'll check back on that one, but yes, I feel confident he will do it. He's definitely that good. -
Rato wrote:
I agree, I say be breaks 13 this summer. I'll check back on that one, but yes, I feel confident he will do it. He's definitely that good.
Hell no, he will have a tough time going under 13:10. Jenkins will likely break through the 13 barrier long before he does. Jenkins has not only improved more than Cheserek in the last couple of years but is continuing to improve significantly. I'm much more looking forward to him being the next big distance star. -
Donald Johnson (DOJO) wrote:
He has shown great range and his ability to close in championship races is unparalleled in NCAA history. Assuming he gets US citizenship how good do you think he can be? His best event now is probably the 5k.
I think he can be a world beater with the right coaching/mentorship. He destroyed Lawi Lalang indoors the summer after Lawi ran 13:00 and the season he ran 3:52. That was three years ago. Since then the most notable occurrences are when he DOESN'T win. He ran 13:18 three years ago in a championship race and has run 3:52 already this year. I expect he will run under 13 for 5k if he time trials this year.
He will CRUSH IT!!!!!!
He's now built up a ridiculous base of which will serve him extremely well. He can now incorporate higher quality workouts with MORE recovery days and target specific high quality races over the course of a season. It's called the rebound effect and when he gets this dialed in he's going to be INSANE!!!!
ROLL ON KING CHEZ!!!!! -
Good Heavens wrote:
Rato wrote:
I agree, I say be breaks 13 this summer. I'll check back on that one, but yes, I feel confident he will do it. He's definitely that good.
Hell no, he will have a tough time going under 13:10. Jenkins will likely break through the 13 barrier long before he does. Jenkins has not only improved more than Cheserek in the last couple of years but is continuing to improve significantly. I'm much more looking forward to him being the next big distance star.
Time will tell. The US has a bunch of 13:02-13:10 guys these days. They all seem to struggle to go sub 13. I am sure eventually some of the Jager, True, Hill, Mead, Chelimo, Derrick, Jenkins and whoever I missed group will bust out a 13:10 but I would be surprised if more than 2 or 3 of them do it.
And to some extent none of them have shown the mile speed necessary. Runing 3:52s/3:35s are nice but they aren't the 3:33/3:49 type speed that you have some untapped potential. -
adfsasdf wrote:
Time will tell. The US has a bunch of 13:02-13:10 guys these days. They all seem to struggle to go sub 13. I am sure eventually some of the Jager, True, Hill, Mead, Chelimo, Derrick, Jenkins and whoever I missed group will bust out a 13:10 but I would be surprised if more than 2 or 3 of them do it.
And to some extent none of them have shown the mile speed necessary. Runing 3:52s/3:35s are nice but they aren't the 3:33/3:49 type speed that you have some untapped potential.
I think Jenkins has most potential out of all those guys. 3:49 requirement? See 2016 Fifth Ave. mile where Jenkins destroys Centro in...3:49. -
no soup for you wrote:
The Trutherer wrote:
PR's of 3:34 (1500), and 13:08 (5000).
Will essentially share the same PR's of Grant Fisher by 2025.
except Cheserek will have 19 NCAA championships and Fisher will be on the Payton Solinsky Wall of fame as an all time great time trialer.
That of course assumes Fisher survives Stanford coaching and gets to show his mettle as a time trial specialist
It appears somebody here has never watched Solinsky's races. -
Great question. It doesn't seem to me that Ches has improved noticeably in the last 2-3 years. On the other hand, a lot of great runners seem to stall toward the end of college, then break through further after going pro. So we'll see if he raises his game when the competition level goes way up.
Who would be a likely coach or group for him? -
good heavens wrote:
adfsasdf wrote:
Time will tell. The US has a bunch of 13:02-13:10 guys these days. They all seem to struggle to go sub 13. I am sure eventually some of the Jager, True, Hill, Mead, Chelimo, Derrick, Jenkins and whoever I missed group will bust out a 13:10 but I would be surprised if more than 2 or 3 of them do it.
And to some extent none of them have shown the mile speed necessary. Runing 3:52s/3:35s are nice but they aren't the 3:33/3:49 type speed that you have some untapped potential.
I think Jenkins has most potential out of all those guys. 3:49 requirement? See 2016 Fifth Ave. mile where Jenkins destroys Centro in...3:49.
Craig Wheeler ran a 3:24 mile in a road mile. There is a reason why we don't use them for PR.
The fith avenue a downhill, point to point road mile. That is like using a 3 mile XC course as your 5k pr. And winning by .1th of a second his hardly destroying. Jenkins is a 3:36/3:53 from what we have seen. Maybe he takes the next step. Maybe he stalls out. -
New Mexico guy didn't just beat him, he destroyed him. Cheserek gave up by 100m to go and not even sub 4 pace.
Forget that shiny Oregon hype, he's done. -
I think he has Wanjiru type ability for the marathon. Needs to skip the mile and 5,000 and go straight to the 10k and half marathon and be onto the marathon in three year's time.
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I think he has the ability to win an Olympic medal in the 5K in 2020.
The runner he most reminds me of is Mo. Incredible range. Great speed. He's built for the 5K.
If he focuses on that race, he'll be a world beater. Definitely sub 13. -
He will become the Kenyan version of Andrew Wheating. College legend, disappointing pro.
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About as good as Kennedy Kithuka
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Fisher has done more internationally then Ches has alreday lol
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Bump
