Hypothetical: Laura Muir 100:1 odds to win the 1500m in London, $1000 minimum bet. Would you take it?

Also one important thing that there is no rabbit in WCs, so muir must really go out full throttle out at the start all by herself, after three rounds. She has done it during the euro indoors, we will see it if she can reproduce in London.

Obviously 100:1 is very worth taking; way over EV.

Obviously she is not favorite, but obviously has really good prospects of getting to final and decent shot of medaling.

Not buying it wrote:

I find it astounding that Coe and Radcliffe would say that Muir is a favorite to win gold in London.

If the minimum bet you needed to wager on Muir was $1000, with the payout being $100k, would you take it?

I'd say it would be the most surefire way to lose $1000.

i wouldnt bet $1000 on any sporting event, but laura muir wins a hypothetical 1500m final way more than 1/100 of the time. If you had to put odds right now, i would say likely 7-8/1 (and probably in the 4-5/1 range if dibaba doesnt run it).

usnspecialist wrote:

Not buying it wrote:

I find it astounding that Coe and Radcliffe would say that Muir is a favorite to win gold in London.

If the minimum bet you needed to wager on Muir was $1000, with the payout being $100k, would you take it?

I'd say it would be the most surefire way to lose $1000.

i wouldnt bet $1000 on any sporting event, but laura muir wins a hypothetical 1500m final way more than 1/100 of the time. If you had to put odds right now, i would say likely 7-8/1 (and probably in the 4-5/1 range if dibaba doesnt run it).

Believe me, closer to the time the odds will under 3:1.

If I could get 100:1 odds, why not? She's probably better than 10:1 by honest odds at this point.

I think most of us agree the odds should be shorter than 100:1. But would you plonk down $1000?

Why not? I'm a fan. I follow her on twitter. Maybe all of the east Africans will get popped with PED violations or come up with injuries. It is a long shot, but there is a chance.

Poof wrote:

... Kipyegon destroyed her in the Olympics and in every other race they've had.

Wrong. Laura also beat her in Oslo 2015 and on one of the very few other occasions they raced (Oslo 2016) Laura stuck right with her to the end - far from being "destroyed". Kipyegon couldn't shake her. Laura is a better athlete now than she was in Oslo 2016.

RnRpolice wrote:

Why not? I'm a fan. I follow her on twitter. Maybe all of the east Africans will get popped with PED violations or come up with injuries. It is a long shot, but there is a chance.

Didn't Laura win the diamond league? So why would it be a long shot? She beat those girls week in week out.

By the law of Shit happens yes I would in a heartbeat.

Say she's the 6th best 1500 runner in the word going into the season. By factors of others getting injured, busted for doping, having off days, her improving her odds at winning are way greater than 1 in 100.

If you ask what is the most likely scenarion then yes I'd likely lose my $1000. But I think the odds are heavily enough in my favor that would be a good bet.

1500's in championship races do have some unpredicatbility and people you don't think would win can, see Centro and Simpson in recent years. Hell Manzano got a silver and he was a much bigger shock than Muir would be.

I know some stuff wrote:

usnspecialist wrote:

i wouldnt bet $1000 on any sporting event, but laura muir wins a hypothetical 1500m final way more than 1/100 of the time. If you had to put odds right now, i would say likely 7-8/1 (and probably in the 4-5/1 range if dibaba doesnt run it).

Believe me, closer to the time the odds will under 3:1.

they very well could be, but that is because everyone will be slamming the line on her driving it down. My worry with muir is that she has yet to show the tactical chops against a world class field. Doubling at euros is good (especially with the times), but the 2nd place finisher in the mile there would do well to make the final in London.

Well $1000 is basically free, so why not?

usnspecialist wrote:

they very well could be, but that is because everyone will be slamming the line on her driving it down. My worry with muir is that she has yet to show the tactical chops against a world class field. Doubling at euros is good (especially with the times), but the 2nd place finisher in the mile there would do well to make the final in London.

She got her tactics right in Paris and very nearly got it right in Zurich (losing by 0.07s). Both of those races contained 8 of the other 11 Rio finalists including all the main players except Dibaba. She also ran a very smart race in Karlsruhe. Sure, the whole field wasn't world-class but she did beat Obiri at a distance right in Obiri's wheelhouse (Obiri being the fastest ever non-Chinese athlete at the distance outdoors.)

Regarding Klosterhalfen (2nd behind Laura in the Euro Indoors), her 4:04 indoors seems indicative that she's ready to go sub 4:00 or very close outdoors. In the Olympic final (and the 2015 WCH final) there were several women with PBs in the 4:00-4:02 range so it's not hard to imagine Klosterhlafen being a finalist in London.

Klosterhaufen has no kick whatsoever. She should work on her kick immediately or move up to the 5k.

I predict Caster Semenya to run the 800/1500m and win the double in 1:54/3:53 just to piss off LRC and Lord Coe.

Poof wrote:

I hope Muir does well, and can become a true threat, but right now she is not on their level.

The best you can say is she has a slightly faster 1500 PR than Faith. But her mile PR is 3 seconds slower than Kipyegon and not even in the same universe as Genzebe. And Faith is actually younger than Muir.

Who cares what their mile PBs are, the mile is run way less competitively, and the fact that Kipyegon has run 3 seconds faster means absolutely nothing, considering the mile and the 1500 are basically equal racing distances. If your argument was true, then Muir would be 3 seconds slower over 1500, and that is obviously not true.