this attempt caught me by surprise as not much publicity beforehand !!
if i'd known, I wouda made an estimate for her peak when she looked capable indoors in perfect races of ~ 3'52 / 8'12 / 14'15
( none of these 3 runs were close to perfect with either/&
- far too slow pacing
- inadequate pacing duration - not the 1k expected in a 1500, the 2k expected in a 3k & the 3k expected in a 5k
- huge kick at the finish indicating earlier part of race was far too slow )
her basic indoor 400 speed probably around 54-mid at the time
so, at her indoor peak in '14/'15, I wouda reckoned a fair estimate for her indoor line of fit wouda been ~
~ 54.50 / 3'52.00 ->
1'56.73
2'29.02
5'17.35
8'12.97
14'17.21
when I wouda expected her to have gone hugely below 5'20 & also capable of breaking mutola's 1k wr easily
she ran 5'23+ yesterday, which for a perfect race, even-pace, drafting, etc maya been ~ 5'21
conclusion is that she is nowhere close to her previous indoor shape despite demolishing weak 5'25+/5'30+ outdoor/indoor records
I think her speed is there at ~ 54.5 but not her endurance
her current line of fit I woud reckon is
~ 54.50 / 5'21.00 ->
1'57.36
2'30.06
3'54.25
8'19.83
14'31.53
( see how far off the 5k estimate is from her indoor wr )
she coud still break mutola's 2'30.94 but it woud require a near perfect race with fast pacing to 600 & agonising hanging on for last 400
the 1500WR is just possible only because it is "weak" because she had such poor slow pacing & not much pacing in her 3'55
bottom line : it woud be very hard for her to get the 1k/1500 WRs unless she substantially improves from this 2k as there is no "wiggle room" for her to break them with slow pacing to only 1/2 distance...