How strong is the half marathon WR? Could Kenny B beat it?

Trackbot! VDOT 2:03:03 Marathon

VDOT for 2:03:03 42.195km: 83.6

Equivalent race times based on VDOT:

Marathon: 02:02:50

Half marathon: 00:58:37

15K: 00:40:50

10K: 00:26:40

5K: 00:12:48

3Mi: 00:12:20

2Mi: 00:07:56

3200m: 00:07:53

3K: 00:07:20

1Mi: 00:03:43

1600m: 00:03:41

1500m: 00:03:26

I am a bot. Info: habs.sdf.org/trackbot

Bekele in peak form would dip under 58

TrackBot wrote:

VDOT for 2:03:03 42.195km: 83.6

Equivalent race times based on VDOT:

Marathon: 02:02:50

Why does TrackBot give a completely different marathon equivalent to the original time to base VDOT off of?

Trackbot incorporates ventolin's adjustment for ideal conditions.

"Could" ... what does that really mean?

There are a few people who have a non-negligible chance to break the HM or Marathon WR.

If you pick any one of those people (say KB) then it's pretty unlikely that he will actually break either record (and even less likely that he'll break both).

The current records are quite similar by most of the usual methods of comparing performances for different distances.

i think that this is a very strong WR.

Tadese doesn't have enough speed but he is very very strong (despite his bad marathons) guy. Don't forget that he is a 26:37 10000m guy while holding "only" a 12:59 5000m PR. That's amazing endurance and he was able to replicate that for the Half Marathon.

He's also mastered the HM distance for many years before setting his first WR and then he made it better.

we all agree Wanjiru had enough talent to be a Marathon WR contender, at least a 2h03 Marathoner, and yet a prime Wanjiru produced a 58:33 so 10s slower.

I will say that Tadese was the athlete than - when at his prime - could hold the sub2h pace for longer (maybe past 30km). He is known as the most economical athlete ever.

Bekele could challenge that WR that's for sure, but I doubt he would run under 58.

^^this

Bekele needs Tadese in the race to break his record.

^^this = rfmaioral

Except that Bekele was a 26:17 performer, and beat ZT in XC every year but the hot one, and has never run as slow as ZTs best in the marathon. I'd say that as strong as ZT is (or was), KB is obviously faster.

The big issue here is that ZT did it while still in prime or nearly prime 10000 shape. KB is well past his 10000 best and relies on his huge strength. I'm sure he could go sub 59 if he really wanted, but sub 58:20? Doubt it.

faster but not that faster. Bekele was 22s faster than Tadese @ 5000m and then 20s faster at @10 000. In % terms it says more than "only 2s", he is roughly 2.8% faster at 5000m and only 1.25% faster at 10 000m. Though Bekele has a better engine than Tadese, he is not as "endurance" oriented as Tadese, and my guess is that the difference in HM (even considering a Bekele in his prime) would be even lower than @ 10 000. With that said, I honestly don't think even a prime Bekele could run under 58:00. In fact I don't believe there was any runner at any point in history that was able to produce a sub 58 HM. One would need an athlete with the strenght of Tadese and a 26:20 10k, a time that Tadese itself was never able to produce.

an interesting point for sure is why Tadese was never able to run a decent Marathon; by logic when @ 58:23 shape he should be able to produce a 2h02. I don't know why, maybe Nike sub2h project will bring answers.

I guess he just doesn't give a shit about the marathon and has never done any marathon-specific training, except for the appearance fee.

ZT never got the nutrition during a marathon mastered.

I think that 58:23 is on par with the 3k-10km records really. It's just insane to think they are doing just outside of 66 second laps on the road.

I would bet on Kamworor doing it. He did the same 5k time as Tadese leading a lot of the race last year (he barely races 5km at least in the Diamond League) and he showed supreme strength in Cardiff in very bad conditions.

He probably mistimed his peak tough, it's the only explanation for the Rio 10k catastrophe.

Kipchoge would make a legit attempt too, so consistent.

Bekele's current best is 60:09, back from that now legendary Great North run where he ran the legs out from under Mo Farah.

Could have sworn he ran 59:xx at some point.

I guess the question is whether or not Bekele has the equipment to get the job done, especially with this focus on getting the Marathon WR. He's 34 and despite being the GOAT, probably can't have too many more tricks up his sleeve.

I know everyone hates the sub2 project and thinks nike picked two guys to go with kipchoge at random, but they had like 20 elite athletes that they tested and determined that they 3 they picked had the best chance based on sciencs. They said that tadese had the best efficiency out of anyone they have ever tested. So much can go wrong in the marathon that he's just never put together a solid performance, but his half time is not random. If you follow his progression of PB from 5,000 to HM, his crazy efficiency is easy to see

The key word here is could. Bekele could have gotten the marathon world record in berlin but did he? No. 2004-2009 bekele could have gotten the half record but would he have would depend on many factors. I've noticed the road racing seems to be a learned skill. You have stars like bekele that struggle in their first races before eventually winning with fast times. You have stars like farah being beaten. People like Kipchoge and Wanjuri who run fast in the roads from the get-go are rare.

Its a Hoax wrote:

You have stars like bekele that struggle in their first races before eventually winning with fast times. .

To my best knowledge, Bekele won the Paris marathon in 2:05:03 in his debut.

George_213 wrote:

Its a Hoax wrote:

You have stars like bekele that struggle in their first races before eventually winning with fast times. .

To my best knowledge, Bekele won the Paris marathon in 2:05:03 in his debut.

That was a tempo run.

Ridiculo.