Here is some good analysis on the path to impeachment conviction:
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2021/01/14/how-many-senators-will-vote-to-convict-donald-trump/
If the 48 Democrats and 2 Independents show up and vote to convict, then it would require 17 Republican votes to "ensure" a conviction. (or count on a number of people not showing up to vote)
"All in all there are 16 Republican senators who did not vote to sustain the pro-Trump objections to the Electoral College roll call and who are not up for re-election until 2026."
Anyone in that group won't face political ramifications for 6 years. They can vote against Trump and get away with it.
Among that 16, Ben Sasse will surely vote to convict.
In addition to that group, Lisa Murkowski, Mitt Romney and Pat Toomey are likely to convict.
That's 19 Republican senators who may vote to convict.
There are others that didn't vote to sustain pro-Trump objections that have 4 or 2 years left in their term.
And still others could flip, but not likely.
Mitch McConnell is in the group that did not vote with the pro-Trump objections and has 6 years left in his term (if not his life).
He's not worried about losing his seat and I don't think he really likes Trump, but he may calculate his vote to keep his influence and remain minority leader. Or he may step up and try to lead Republicans away from Trumpism.
A conviction of Trump, even after holding office, would put a permanent stain on Trump's presidency and they could ban him from ever running for office again.