NameStolenAgain wrote:
Yeah, I told him above he's just posting random images from who knows where. That has never been a predicted map, that's probably a 3-10% likelihood
Fat hurts wrote:
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
NameStolenAgain wrote:
LOL
Such a genius argument, the farther he is in the polls the more likely he is to win because he won when slightly behind. This a whole new level of idiocy.
So, how much are you betting that Trump will win? You keep ignoring that question
The Runningart Challenge is the only bet that matters.
Nate Silver's current map:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EklK9MqU0AAKOzt?format=jpg&name=small
IA, FL, NC, GA, OH, TX blue??? 100% certified 🤡.
https://imgflip.com/s/meme/Good-Fellas-Hilarious.jpg
Enjoy your loss.
KAG2020
I don't know where you got that, but it's not Nate Silver's map. Not even close.
agip wrote:
Flagpole wrote:
left now wrote:
Trump is guaranteeing the permanent death of the Republican party. Steve Bannon claims if Trump loses in two weeks (he will lose) he will run again in 2024. RIP GOP.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8852433/Steve-Bannon-says-President-Trump-run-2024-loses-upcoming-election.html
Trump will never win an election at any level again. We will see a pathetic attention-seeking Trump after the election slowly get worse and worse ratings at whatever it is he decides to do. We will see how his legal troubles interfere with his post-President days.
there will be some interesting conversations if Trump loses in 2020 and runs in 2024. Esp if the senate turns blue.
R leadership knows Trump runs the party singlehandedly, but Rs also know Trump ran the party into a ditch - losing the House, Senate and WH. (if that happens).
Elected Rs probably won't have the backbone to push back against [email protected] nation.
I'm sure trump would win the nomination again if he runs in 2024.
Unless he is in jail or self-exile. Maybe that would cost him the nomination.
left now wrote:
Fat hurts wrote:
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
Nate Silver's current map:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EklK9MqU0AAKOzt?format=jpg&name=small
I don't know where you got that, but it's not Nate Silver's map. Not even close.
It is a make your own map from 270towin dot com. It has nothing to do with Nate Silver's 538 site.
270towin makes predictions same as 538. 270towin allows users to make their own electoral map.
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
Fat hurts wrote:
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
NameStolenAgain wrote:
LOL
Such a genius argument, the farther he is in the polls the more likely he is to win because he won when slightly behind. This a whole new level of idiocy.
So, how much are you betting that Trump will win? You keep ignoring that question
The Runningart Challenge is the only bet that matters.
Nate Silver's current map:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EklK9MqU0AAKOzt?format=jpg&name=small
IA, FL, NC, GA, OH, TX blue??? 100% certified 🤡.
https://imgflip.com/s/meme/Good-Fellas-Hilarious.jpg
Enjoy your loss.
KAG2020
I don't know where you got that, but it's not Nate Silver's map. Not even close.
Care to try again, Facts hurt?
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1317165271975665665
zephito wrote:
agip wrote:
there will be some interesting conversations if Trump loses in 2020 and runs in 2024. Esp if the senate turns blue.
R leadership knows Trump runs the party singlehandedly, but Rs also know Trump ran the party into a ditch - losing the House, Senate and WH. (if that happens).
Elected Rs probably won't have the backbone to push back against [email protected] nation.
I'm sure trump would win the nomination again if he runs in 2024.
Unless he is in jail or self-exile. Maybe that would cost him the nomination.
I don't think he'll run again. I do think he'll control the party for at least another cycle, but it will be more as a kingmaker-type. I don't think he ever really wanted to be president in the sense of actually doing the job. I think he ran to get publicity and was as surprised as everyone else at how effective he was. I do think by the end of the 2016 campaign he wanted to win for the sake of winning but I think he'd be much happier golfing all the time and holding rallies without having to actually do the job or be responsible for anything. He has absolutely no convictions about any public policy (except maybe for protectionism) so he has no policy goals he would want accomplished. I often wonder if there's some alternate universe where he ran as the dem nominee and how successful that would have been. I like to think that dem voters wouldn't have given him the time of day but who knows?
Also, per my previous post, he can still win. The RCP battleground states are actually slightly in his favor vis a vis last election (still behind but closer than last time). The polling firms seem to have made corrections to account for that and it's hugely unlikely that this cycle will follow the same format as last time for a whole host of reasons we're all aware of but I feel the 10% chance is still there. Looking at the polls from all the states show Biden rolling up gigantic margins in CA, NY, MA and the like (more than HRC last time), the extra votes all being worthless. In addition, say he loses TX by 50-48, which seems quite possible. That's 7 points and hundreds of thousands of votes better than HRC, all for nothing. The EC is even more biased towards the GOP this time and I could see Biden winning by 5 or 6 points in the popular vote and still losing the EC (though still unlikely and I can't see any path for Trump if Biden wins by 9 or 10 as the polls show now).
Side history note: Lincoln ran against 3 other guys in 1860 and won the EC with 39% of the vote. What some don't know is that had Douglass, Bell and Breckenridge combined into a single candidate (so no vote dividing going on), Lincoln still would have won the EC, while losing the popular vote by 20 points. So winning the popular vote by 6 points and still losing the election really isn't unprecedented.
TTH wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Meanwhile, trouble for the Bidens before and after the election:
https://nypost.com/2020/10/17/what-did-joe-biden-know-about-hunters-crook-emails-goodwin/
The dedication to a story gaining no traction whatsoever anywhere but in the source of the story...NYPOST....and maybe FoxNews....I don't watch it but I imagine this is a major theme of theirs right now...is commendable.
left now wrote:
Trump is guaranteeing the permanent death of the Republican party. Steve Bannon claims if Trump loses in two weeks (he will lose) he will run again in 2024. RIP GOP.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8852433/Steve-Bannon-says-President-Trump-run-2024-loses-upcoming-election.html
Fat hurts wrote:
NameStolenAgain wrote:
And apparently whats he's "putting on the line" is having to change his handle, register under a new name, and never have to face embarrassment for all his claims
Yes, which is why the whole bet is so stupid and meaningless. He bound to change his handle after the election either way. "Rigged for Hillary" is so 2016.
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
left now wrote:
Fat hurts wrote:
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
Nate Silver's current map:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EklK9MqU0AAKOzt?format=jpg&name=small
I don't know where you got that, but it's not Nate Silver's map. Not even close.
It is a make your own map from 270towin dot com. It has nothing to do with Nate Silver's 538 site.
270towin makes predictions same as 538. 270towin allows users to make their own electoral map.
Man, you libs just can't admit when you're wrong. This map is from the poll reading 🤡 himself, Nate Silver.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1317165271975665665
Enjoy your loss.
KAG2020
Just Another Hobby Jogger wrote:
left now wrote:
Trump is guaranteeing the permanent death of the Republican party. Steve Bannon claims if Trump loses in two weeks (he will lose) he will run again in 2024. RIP GOP.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8852433/Steve-Bannon-says-President-Trump-run-2024-loses-upcoming-election.html
Run in 2024 from where? NY State prison, or Trump Tower Istanbul?
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
More damming information:
https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2020/10/does_this_explain_why_facebook_suppressed_hunter_biden_revelations.html
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
NameStolenAgain wrote:
Yeah, I told him above he's just posting random images from who knows where. That has never been a predicted map, that's probably a 3-10% likelihood
The "random image" is from Nate's own twitter page.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1317165271975665665
left now wrote:
Trump is guaranteeing the permanent death of the Republican party. Steve Bannon claims if Trump loses in two weeks (he will lose) he will run again in 2024. RIP GOP.
Calamity Joe wrote:
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/noem-hunter-biden-story-joe-biden-damage-credibility
Flagpole wrote:
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
Fat hurts wrote:
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
NameStolenAgain wrote:
LOL
Such a genius argument, the farther he is in the polls the more likely he is to win because he won when slightly behind. This a whole new level of idiocy.
So, how much are you betting that Trump will win? You keep ignoring that question
The Runningart Challenge is the only bet that matters.
Nate Silver's current map:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EklK9MqU0AAKOzt?format=jpg&name=small
IA, FL, NC, GA, OH, TX blue??? 100% certified 🤡.
https://imgflip.com/s/meme/Good-Fellas-Hilarious.jpg
Enjoy your loss.
KAG2020
I don't know where you got that, but it's not Nate Silver's map. Not even close.
Care to try again, Facts hurt?
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1317165271975665665
How is it possible that you are this stupid? I'm not even going to spend the time to try to educate you on this, because you are a lost cause. Wow! I mean WOW are you dumb. Just WOW!
TTH wrote:
left now wrote:
Trump is guaranteeing the permanent death of the Republican party. Steve Bannon claims if Trump loses in two weeks (he will lose) he will run again in 2024. RIP GOP.
My thought has been that if Trump were to lose, particularly in a close race and all of the nonsense that will bring, that Trump will immediately begin campaigning for 2024 and we'll never get out of this cycle. The only chance this doesn't happen is if the GOP essentially abandons him politically and I don't think enough of the political leaders will do so to accomplish this.
