I agree with Racket that democrats should not be complacent, but I think it’s a reality that has not materially changed since 2016. More than 40% of the US voting age population will still not vote due to lack of interest. It’s easy to think that hatred for Trump will push them to get out there, but more likely four years of Trump has disheartened Americans even more about politics.
And unfortunately of the ones who are registered to vote, too many are like my sister who do not follow any news, do not read, and really don’t believe that politics affects their lives materially enough that their vote will matter much anyway. People like her simply aren’t going to try to fact check or bother with research and details that make all the difference. Most tend to see things strictly from the perspective of their own experiences. For example, she caught COVID and had very weak symptoms and therefore thinks the whole pandemic isn't that serious. She doesn’t like trump but she thinks Biden is not that exciting and plans to vote for someone else or not at all. Unfortunately, she lives in Florida.
I just don’t think people are motivated enough to get out there and vote for Biden in huge numbers, despite hating trump. I wouldn’t count on any big swing state wins for Biden and I think it will likely be a close call. we’ll see as we get closer but I’m not very confident at the moment.