L L wrote:
Brandishing a weapon as a threat when you are not acting in self defense is a crime.
It can be a misdemeanor or even a felony.
The police have said how stupid those people were. Pointing a weapon at someone are a way to get yourself shot. The police will shot you if they think you are raising your arm...no chance given to point...don't even point a finger.
This is a good example showing the big difference between a tzee and expert. The expert can dissect an issue to make strong arguments while the tzee throws emotional and uneducated ramblings out there. GOP is just not in the business of common sense.
reer wrote:
couldn't continue waiting at least 5 minutes wrote:
I am now very curious as to why so few people are getting Covid 19 in New York (and actually much of the North Eastern US). Are they all just doing a much better job of social distancing and mask wearing than everyone else?
Yes. It's not rocket science. There are certainly aspects of the virus that are still perplexing, but how to minimize transmission isn't one of them.
This ^
When lots and LOTS of people are dying where you live, you tend to take precautions a little more seriously.
No mystery here.
Check out the percentage changes in COVID cases by age bracket now versus back in April. The change is stunning. It might even strike you as "mighty unlikely." But it sure as heck is happening - people learned and adjusted. Those who saw LOTS of deaths hitting close to home (close either by physical proximity or within the same age/infirmity bracket) dramatically changed their behaviors.
Btw despite Rand Paul trying to differentiate himself, he’s just like other tzees and is quick to pull out the helpless “thoughts and prayers” type response, in this case claiming that “what we need is more positivity.” No ahole- we need nothing less than a somber science-based approach. Him trying to lecture Fauci is beyond stupid - surely Rand would be ok with a dentist trying to perform eye surgery on him.
reer wrote:
couldn't continue waiting at least 5 minutes wrote:
I am now very curious as to why so few people are getting Covid 19 in New York (and actually much of the North Eastern US). Are they all just doing a much better job of social distancing and mask wearing than everyone else?
Yes. It's not rocket science. There are certainly aspects of the virus that are still perplexing, but how to minimize transmission isn't one of them.
So you think that everyone in the NE is doing a much better job social distancing than everywhere else?
Ok, could be true but I find that highly unlikely. I am sure either of us could provide anecdotal evidence to support our thoughts so that would kind of be a waste of time.
I am not debating that wearing masks is not a good way to lower infection rate... it clearly is. I am just really curious about the drop in cases in the NE as I do not actually think all those who live there are any better than most of the rest of the US in following mask/SD protocol.
This message board is funny in that whenever anyone asks a question it is often assumed there is some agenda behind the question... my only agenda would be to understand this pandemic better.
1100 wrote:
reer wrote:
Yes. It's not rocket science. There are certainly aspects of the virus that are still perplexing, but how to minimize transmission isn't one of them.
This ^
When lots and LOTS of people are dying where you live, you tend to take precautions a little more seriously.
No mystery here.
Check out the percentage changes in COVID cases by age bracket now versus back in April. The change is stunning. It might even strike you as "mighty unlikely." But it sure as heck is happening - people learned and adjusted. Those who saw LOTS of deaths hitting close to home (close either by physical proximity or within the same age/infirmity bracket) dramatically changed their behaviors.
I am aware that younger people are the ones getting Covid 19 more now. I actually expected to see that because I was watching what was happening around me. So, no, I do not find that happening as mighty unlikely. (no need to put sarcastic quotes on the mighty unlikely).
If you believe everyone in the younger age group in the NE is taking this disease more seriously than those in that group everywhere else in the US than so be it. I don't have a study to prove it one way or the other... I was only asking the question.
As I said above, it's odd to me that whenever someone asks a question here many seem to think there is some sort of agenda behind it... I try to think things through is all.
And, yes, I know wearing masks and social distancing helps to prevent the spread of the virus that is not at all what my question was.
couldn't continue waiting at least 5 minutes wrote:
reer wrote:
Yes. It's not rocket science. There are certainly aspects of the virus that are still perplexing, but how to minimize transmission isn't one of them.
So you think that everyone in the NE is doing a much better job social distancing than everywhere else?
Ok, could be true but I find that highly unlikely. I am sure either of us could provide anecdotal evidence to support our thoughts so that would kind of be a waste of time.
I am not debating that wearing masks is not a good way to lower infection rate... it clearly is. I am just really curious about the drop in cases in the NE as I do not actually think all those who live there are any better than most of the rest of the US in following mask/SD protocol.
This message board is funny in that whenever anyone asks a question it is often assumed there is some agenda behind the question... my only agenda would be to understand this pandemic better.
I think COVID hit home much faster in the densely populated parts of the NE - so these people have actually taken it more seriously. Couple that with a more rapid and unequivocal response from the local authorities and you get this drastic drop. There is also a timing element with much of the NE coming off very strong and lengthy lock down measures while the rest of the country fumbles just as things are starting to look worse.
Trollminator wrote:
couldn't continue waiting at least 5 minutes wrote:
So you think that everyone in the NE is doing a much better job social distancing than everywhere else?
Ok, could be true but I find that highly unlikely. I am sure either of us could provide anecdotal evidence to support our thoughts so that would kind of be a waste of time.
I am not debating that wearing masks is not a good way to lower infection rate... it clearly is. I am just really curious about the drop in cases in the NE as I do not actually think all those who live there are any better than most of the rest of the US in following mask/SD protocol.
This message board is funny in that whenever anyone asks a question it is often assumed there is some agenda behind the question... my only agenda would be to understand this pandemic better.
I think COVID hit home much faster in the densely populated parts of the NE - so these people have actually taken it more seriously. Couple that with a more rapid and unequivocal response from the local authorities and you get this drastic drop. There is also a timing element with much of the NE coming off very strong and lengthy lock down measures while the rest of the country fumbles just as things are starting to look worse.
Certainly a plausible explanation.
couldn't continue waiting at least 5 minutes wrote:
agip wrote:
6/29 Data
The US tied its cyclical low in deaths. In terms of a rolling 7 day average go daily deaths. So that's good news.
And the world had its lowest rolling 7 day average in around two weeks.
Can't be too disappointed with those numbers.
GA is seeing a rather severe spike in cases...but continued falling in deaths.
And India's 7 day average hit a new high. Deaths are still very low per capita in that country but given its dense urban core and billion plus population...could get ugly there.
The continued story in the US is whether the surge in cases will result in materially more deaths. So far it has not.
From Goldman, trying to put a number on the dollar cost of the moran anti-mask Trumpers. It's a very, very, very large number:
“Face mask mandate could potentially substitute for lockdowns that would otherwise subtract nearly 5% from GDP.”
Just as I was curious about why the percentage of people dying in New York was so high back in March and April... I am now very curious as to why so few people are getting Covid 19 in New York (and actually much of the North Eastern US). Are they all just doing a much better job of social distancing and mask wearing than everyone else? Seems mighty unlikely.
I am honestly curious about it. I don't have any sort of answer but it seems to indicate to me that there is some sort of herd immunity thing happening even though that also seems unlikely.
This virus continues to be perplexing which is the main reason everyone (including health experts) seem so confused about it.
yeah I don't know. it's probably a combo of a lot of things.
NYC still has a high level of mask wearing. very little office work happening. Subways are only 1/4 full at most.
Nursing homes have protected themslves better. Hospitals are better.
Some limited earned immunity...I think 20-25% of NYCers have had the virus.
couldn't continue waiting at least 5 minutes wrote:
reer wrote:
Yes. It's not rocket science. There are certainly aspects of the virus that are still perplexing, but how to minimize transmission isn't one of them.
So you think that everyone in the NE is doing a much better job social distancing than everywhere else?
Ok, could be true but I find that highly unlikely. I am sure either of us could provide anecdotal evidence to support our thoughts so that would kind of be a waste of time.
Objectively you could look at the phasing of restrictions and opening dates in the NE relative to places where outbreaks are increasing.
couldn't continue waiting at least 5 minutes wrote:
1100 wrote:
This ^
When lots and LOTS of people are dying where you live, you tend to take precautions a little more seriously.
No mystery here.
Check out the percentage changes in COVID cases by age bracket now versus back in April. The change is stunning. It might even strike you as "mighty unlikely." But it sure as heck is happening - people learned and adjusted. Those who saw LOTS of deaths hitting close to home (close either by physical proximity or within the same age/infirmity bracket) dramatically changed their behaviors.
I am aware that younger people are the ones getting Covid 19 more now. I actually expected to see that because I was watching what was happening around me. So, no, I do not find that happening as mighty unlikely. (no need to put sarcastic quotes on the mighty unlikely).
If you believe everyone in the younger age group in the NE is taking this disease more seriously than those in that group everywhere else in the US than so be it. I don't have a study to prove it one way or the other... I was only asking the question.
As I said above, it's odd to me that whenever someone asks a question here many seem to think there is some sort of agenda behind it... I try to think things through is all.
And, yes, I know wearing masks and social distancing helps to prevent the spread of the virus that is not at all what my question was.
There are two groups of people whose case numbers saw a huge spike and then a sharp decline. Those two groups are:
1) Folks in cities very hard hit early on
2) Old people
The curves of both are strikingly similar.
Here are two possible explanations:
A) Herd immunity
B) Learned behavioral response
A) could conceivably explain what we are seeing with group 1), although that would be extremely unlikely. A) certainly does not explain what we are seeing with group 2).
B) could easily explains what we are seeing with group 1). A) also easily explains what we are seeing with group 2).
Conclusion: B) is the right answer.
///
No need for you to be so sensitive to perceived sarcasm in other folks' posts. No sarcasm intended.
Asking the question was fine. I have provided you with the answer. If you don't want the answer, then don't ask the question.
agip wrote:
couldn't continue waiting at least 5 minutes wrote:
Just as I was curious about why the percentage of people dying in New York was so high back in March and April... I am now very curious as to why so few people are getting Covid 19 in New York (and actually much of the North Eastern US). Are they all just doing a much better job of social distancing and mask wearing than everyone else? Seems mighty unlikely.
I am honestly curious about it. I don't have any sort of answer but it seems to indicate to me that there is some sort of herd immunity thing happening even though that also seems unlikely.
This virus continues to be perplexing which is the main reason everyone (including health experts) seem so confused about it.
yeah I don't know. it's probably a combo of a lot of things.
NYC still has a high level of mask wearing. very little office work happening. Subways are only 1/4 full at most.
Nursing homes have protected themslves better. Hospitals are better.
Some limited earned immunity...I think 20-25% of NYCers have had the virus.
That's a fair assessment and also take into account that there has been almost no non-essential commuting from outside areas like NJ/CT/Westchester/Long Island. Schools are out also. The real test will come when they reopen schools.
couldn't continue waiting at least 5 minutes wrote:
agip wrote:
6/29 Data
The US tied its cyclical low in deaths. In terms of a rolling 7 day average go daily deaths. So that's good news.
And the world had its lowest rolling 7 day average in around two weeks.
Can't be too disappointed with those numbers.
GA is seeing a rather severe spike in cases...but continued falling in deaths.
And India's 7 day average hit a new high. Deaths are still very low per capita in that country but given its dense urban core and billion plus population...could get ugly there.
The continued story in the US is whether the surge in cases will result in materially more deaths. So far it has not.
From Goldman, trying to put a number on the dollar cost of the moran anti-mask Trumpers. It's a very, very, very large number:
“Face mask mandate could potentially substitute for lockdowns that would otherwise subtract nearly 5% from GDP.”
Just as I was curious about why the percentage of people dying in New York was so high back in March and April... I am now very curious as to why so few people are getting Covid 19 in New York (and actually much of the North Eastern US). Are they all just doing a much better job of social distancing and mask wearing than everyone else? Seems mighty unlikely.
I am honestly curious about it. I don't have any sort of answer but it seems to indicate to me that there is some sort of herd immunity thing happening even though that also seems unlikely.
This virus continues to be perplexing which is the main reason everyone (including health experts) seem so confused about it.
I think your first inclination is probably right. People in the northeastern US were much closer to the tragedy and are now being more cautious. I don't know this for a fact, but I suspect it is true.
I also suspect that the same kind of dynamic played out on the west coast. Those states were closer to China and have more ties to the people of China. They took it more seriously from the beginning and that's why we didn't see a massive outbreak there early on.
"The calls caused former top Trump deputies -- including national security advisers H.R. McMaster and John Bolton, Defense Secretary James Mattis, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, and White House chief of staff John Kelly, as well as intelligence officials -- to conclude that the President was often "delusional," as two sources put it, in his dealings with foreign leaders. The sources said there was little evidence that the President became more skillful or competent in his telephone conversations with most heads of state over time. Rather, he continued to believe that he could either charm, jawbone or bully almost any foreign leader into capitulating to his will, and often pursued goals more attuned to his own agenda than what many of his senior advisers considered the national interest."
https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/29/politics/trump-phone-calls-national-security-concerns/index.html
couldn't continue waiting at least 5 minutes wrote:
reer wrote:
Yes. It's not rocket science. There are certainly aspects of the virus that are still perplexing, but how to minimize transmission isn't one of them.
So you think that everyone in the NE is doing a much better job social distancing than everywhere else?
Ok, could be true but I find that highly unlikely. I am sure either of us could provide anecdotal evidence to support our thoughts so that would kind of be a waste of time.
I am not debating that wearing masks is not a good way to lower infection rate... it clearly is. I am just really curious about the drop in cases in the NE as I do not actually think all those who live there are any better than most of the rest of the US in following mask/SD protocol.
This message board is funny in that whenever anyone asks a question it is often assumed there is some agenda behind the question... my only agenda would be to understand this pandemic better.
I live in the South and I've seen how people here are pretending that the virus doesn't exist.
Those in the Northeast could not possibly be doing worse than we are.
Yes, that's anecdotal and maybe a waste of time. But it's also a very plausible explanation for what is happening.
Trollminator wrote:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/30/kentucky-senate-primary-results-charles-booker-vs-amy-mcgrath.html?__source=sharebar|twitter&par=sharebar
In this case, I'm glad the progressive didn't win. I don't think McGrath has a very good shot, but in a state like Kentucky she should fare a bit better than Booker.
Fat hurts wrote:
People in the northeastern US were much closer to the tragedy and are now being more cautious. I don't know this for a fact, but I suspect it is true.
NYC is still in phase 2 reopening, including outdoor dining and takeout only for example.
Upstate NY is in phase 4 (of 5 now) with, for example, 50% indoor dining capacity, no movie theaters, no gyms. Several local high schools did graduations this past weekend, all outdoor and in shifts. Masks are required in groceries and such.
Phase 5 would presumably include theaters and gyms, but is on indefinite hold with the national surge.
Adjacent NE states are similar.