So as an antidote to my glum account in my previous post, we can consider a hopeful message from Dr. Fauci on PBS yesterday. You can skip to about 2/3 of the way through the interview where he starts to talk about the way forward:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SUJsnxL7iis
To summarize, Dr. Fauci sees hope as long as these conditions hold:
1. We continue to see decline over the summer.
2. The fall will see more infection as more of us move indoors and go back to school.
3. We will be prepared with better testing and contact tracing so that things don't get out of control.
For this plan to be successful:
#1 has to happen. We aren't sure it will but things seem to be headed toward summer decline.
#2 will happen. Fauci says we are kidding ourselves if we thing it won't.
#3 must happen, but that will require leadership.
I am the most skeptical about #3. I just don't think our leaders will be able to organize the effort it will take, especially during election season. From Trump on down, we have been disappointed and I just don't see us getting our act together.
But Fauci's plan is reasonable. It could work. And I think it's the best plan we've got.