agip wrote:
Fat hurts wrote:
I'm ready to call it. You heard it here first. Georgia's reopening has been a disaster.
New cases are now on an exponential growth curve that started about four weeks after reopening. Expect other states to follow the same trend.
The thing that worries me the most is that politicians will not admit they were wrong. We still need to:
1) Shut it down
2) Stop the spread
3) Test and trace
It's the only tool we have right now.
link?
Looking at GA new cases they are starting to tick upwards yes.
This is critical stuff obviously.
It's been 3 weeks since GA reopened so we'd expect deaths to start increasing...but they most certainly are not. But cases are moving up a little, bottoming 10 days ago.
https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report
First, it is too early for deaths to be relevant. Most of the people dying right now contracted the disease while we were still under lockdown. I'm looking at case data.
You have the correct link, but you have to dig into the details to understand the odd way they do their stats.
If you look at the graph, you see the 14-day shaded area at the right. They call these numbers "preliminary". That's because Georgia Dept. of Health is populating that graph with cases based on initial onset of symptoms (when known). So the dots further to the right (for a particular day) tend to go up over time as new data comes in.
For example, right now it is saying that May 19th has 348 confirmed cases. But tomorrow, it might show that May 19th has 500 confirmed cases. That's because more data came in for people who started showing symptoms on May 19th.
The thing that has me concerned is the 7-day moving average from May 11 to May 17. It is clearly showing an exponential growth curve that will only get steeper as more data trickles in.
Again, this does not bode well for reopening nationwide. Unless what I am seeing is an anomaly, cases (and eventually deaths) could skyrocket over the summer.