agip wrote:
my current view on why the dems should chose biden:
1) Trump fatigue is massive. The country has been trying to fire him for two years. Every election has shown this. There is no reason to think that in 2020 the nation will suddenly change course and want to rehire him.
2) Trump is his own worst enemy. It's not his policies that people loathe...it's him. They want him out. Even HS educated white women now consider him unfavorable.
3) therefore make the election a referendum on Trump.
4) DO NOT give trump a tool to make the election a vote on this candidate or that candidate. Warren would be that gift. She is EXACTLY WHAT MILLIONS OF SWING VOTERS DON'T want. A pointy head wild far left radical who promises...PROMISES to take an eggbeater to the economy and push all kinds of PC battles. People do not want the feds pushing PC transgender ID politics.
5) The balance is keeping the young dem radicals interested and getting them, finally, to vote. I think Trump will drive that. The loathing they have for trump is enough. They dont' need anymore.
6) The thing needed is to give suburban and lower educated women and african americans something to vote for. Biden is that. 'Return to normalcy, don't be afraid' will work for the women, and 'Obama's right hand man' will work for the A-As.
Warren is a weapon handed to the Rs. It's not necessarily suicide...I think Warren would still win...but better to make the election a referendum on Trump, not a choice between conservative policy and far left policy.
some of that is cribbed from Axelrod.