Runningart2004 wrote:
Easy...
He loses MI, WI and PA right from the start. His tariffs have sunk his chances in the rust belt. That's 55 right there...
Iowa's farmers are getting killed by tariffs...6
Arizona and Ohio are almost lost....29....
NC and FL are almost slipping away.....44....
IN is slipping....11
And then the great state of TX is very sour on his immigration policies. TX has been shifting back to the left for a decade. I don't know if it can move that many points.....but the result on Election Day will be within 3-4pts. TX is a long shot but would be 38.
GA is another long shot but still in the conversation. 16
The only certainties are MI and WI. PA and IA are next followed by the rest.
Alan
https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/
Slow down, Mister 400 EV votes. Why are you bringing up polls now? Wait until late Sep/early Oct 2020.
These are the polls to focus on in 2020:
13Keys
Norpoth
IBD/TIPP
CafePress
If they all show the Dem leading, you will win. If not, you will self ban and stay out of Indiana (I threw in the second item because of your Flagpolian prediction of 400 EV's)[/quote]
How's your reading comprehension?
I never said 400. I said approach 400. 350 is "approaching" 400 in my book.
It could be as low as 300 or as high as 400 all swung by a 3-5% change in the state's popular vote.
Go back to 2016. How many states did Trump win by less than 5%?
This presidency, and its polling, is unlike any other in history. His approval has been steady within a tight margin of error. When good things or bad thing happen you would expect a bounce or drop. Other than his government shutdowns there really hasn't been movement. He's also headed for another shutdown this fall because he's a hell of an idiot and always doubles down. And the bell will likely toll on this economic growth before Nov 2020. The signs are there.
So.....
At minimum he loses WI, MI and PA and that loses him the election. He then most likely loses IA. That's like nearly 300 right there.
My best guess is he loses AZ, OH or IN but not all 3. He loses FL or NC but not both. And GA and TX are a pipe dream....
The GOP isn't going to paint Biden or Harris as ideological nut bags....they are both opportunists. The GOP playbook has for years been trying to scare the American public into believing all of the Dems are crazy Socialists!! Ooooh scary!!!
Policy doesn't win presidential elections. Personality and likeability does. And everyone hates Trump.
Alan[/quote]
Alan, we agree that you said near 400 EV and 350 isn't near. I'm simply rounding up to 400 and if your candidate gets 380 or above then that's fine.
You prediction will flop just as Clownpole has many done times. How's that Beto prediction working out for ya?
KAG2020