Flaggy, Flaggy, Flaggy.
You really think that all parties in a bet do not know the outcome? You can do better than that? And is a "future event?" Come on now.
You're in a real pickle now because your words are coming back to haunt you. You're using your own (ever-changing) definitions of "bet" against your own original argument.
Now you either have to 1) admit that the "pledge" is not a bet or 2) admit your "WEJO check my IP...." that you have used incessantly is a bet.
You claim that wejo checking your IP is not a bet with him. You are correct. However, the bet in this case would be between you and me. I said that those sock puppets were you (and they were). You said the posters were not you. And you said "WEJO, DO AN IP CHECK, AND IF I LIE, BAN ME FOR LIFE!" In your own definition of bet, checking with wejo is the "future event." Same as in the example WRONG! made that checking a reliable source (ex. encyclopedia) to verify the # of HRs. Why would his bet be with an encyclopedia? Also, the same as verifying that Trump won the election with a reliable source(s) in the "pledge/bet."
If you want to play it the other way then fine. Your "Wejo, do an IP check" is not a bet and the "pledge" is not a bet either since you are not "betting" anyone Trump will win.
1) You are just making a statement agreeing to stop posting if Trump wins - not betting with anyone.
2) You are just making a statement agreeing to a ban for life if wejo does an IP check and you lied - not betting with anyone..
Can't spin it both ways, brother.
I'll break it down in simple terms using YOUR definition of a bet.
Trump Pledge/Bet: "If Trump wins, I will stop posting."
Flagpole Tagline: "If I lie, ban me for life."
Unknown: Outcome of election
Unknown: Outcome of wejo's IP check
Future event: verification of election results with a reliable source.
Future event: verification of IP's by wejo
Either both a bet according to your own definition or neither are a bet according to your own definition.
The third choice you have is to continue being an idiot. I bet you go with choice #3.