Runningart2004 wrote:
executive branch primacy wrote:
He will just claim it is already authorized under the AUMF. You know, like previous presidents have done in East Africa, Yemen, Libya, Syria, etc., etc.
And like I've said, there's not going to be a war in Iran. There's not going to be traditional boots on ground like we've had in Iraq and Afghanistan. You may have CIA or SOF. You may have sanctions, a blockade by proxy, or drone strikes by proxy, direct US engagement will be iffy.
Alan
I believe you are correct here. With Hawk Bolton and a chaotic Trump though, I don't think we can ever be sure.
Often wrong but never in doubt wrote:
Trump will have a great chance to beat Biden. Biden will create zero enthusiasm.
agip wrote:
Right now, it's starting to look like the dem battle will be white people (the lefties) vs. the moderates and black people.
In other words, Warren for the lefties and biden for everyone else.
but
Trump could probably beat warren. So this become very serious.
I'm telling you, black voters love Biden. They see him as a loyal Obama guy, as a good if silly grandpa, as a guy who can win the election and stop the right wing. I think you are underestimating the appeal of Biden to AA voters.
And like I said, lefties and young people are going to show up in massive numbers because they hate trump so much. They will be motivated whoever is on the ticket. Getting less activist AAs in Detroit, Phila and Milwaukee is the game. Biden can do that.
The transgender bathroom stuff is generally not appreciated by black women - they don't vote on that stuff like the white lefties do.
Flagpole wrote:
Runningart2004 wrote:
And like I've said, there's not going to be a war in Iran. There's not going to be traditional boots on ground like we've had in Iraq and Afghanistan. You may have CIA or SOF. You may have sanctions, a blockade by proxy, or drone strikes by proxy, direct US engagement will be iffy.
Alan
I believe you are correct here. With Hawk Bolton and a chaotic Trump though, I don't think we can ever be sure.
the fear is that Saudi will goad Trump into attacking Iran. Through false flag or other methods. Saudi sees Iran as an an existential, ideological and religious foe. Saudi would desperately like to see iran defanged, for many reasons. And clearly Saudi has something over Spanks - Trump can't say no to them.
agip wrote:
Clear Lee wrote:
Meanwhile, the U.S. produced a pic showing what they claim are mines placed on a ship far above the waterline, and easily visible--must be really stupid bombers. But. . . the first image below is the ship on fire. The second is of the "discovered" mines on the ship. Please ignore that the ships are not the same color . . . trivial detail.
https://cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/190613092834-gulf-of-oman-attack-video-aftermath-fire-vpx-00001212-exlarge-169.jpghttps://cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/190613215559-gulf-of-oman-mine-attack-01-medium-plus-169.jpgmultiple tankers were hit - the photos were meant to show how the mines were attached, not before/after of the same ship.
No one is going to place mines on the side of a ship like the second picture. They would be much too obvious. And either that ship has palm trees growing on it (upper right), or it is sitting in port.
agip wrote:
I'm telling you, black voters love Biden. They see him as a loyal Obama guy, as a good if silly grandpa, as a guy who can win the election and stop the right wing. I think you are underestimating the appeal of Biden to AA voters.
Young voters, including young minority voters do not like Biden. Older party loyal voters including minorities (who are the most likely to vote in primaries) like Biden. Pretty much nobody else. Even among them the enthusiasm is low.
And like I said, lefties and young people are going to show up in massive numbers because they hate trump so much.
That's what you said about Hillary.
They will be motivated whoever is on the ticket. Getting less activist AAs in Detroit, Phila and Milwaukee is the game. Biden can do that.
.
Exactly backwards, you have not learned anything. Old, racist, bad campaigner, compromised candidate Biden is not going to drive enthusiasm.
you can say that, but the polls are:
Biden 32%
Sanders 17%
Warren 12%
That's a big lead. But sure, it's very early.
Point is, the young/lefty group of Dems gets beat and beat and beat. Sanders got beat badly in 2016. Sanders and Warren are getting beaten badly so far.
Whereas in 2018 a bunch of moderates win their house seats and flipped the house. That was done by moderates, not by lefties.
And in 2008 and 2012 moderate obama won the presidency.
point is, there is very little evidence to look at to say 'hey let's give the lefties a chance in 2020.'
Mining wrote:
agip wrote:
multiple tankers were hit - the photos were meant to show how the mines were attached, not before/after of the same ship.
No one is going to place mines on the side of a ship like the second picture. They would be much too obvious. And either that ship has palm trees growing on it (upper right), or it is sitting in port.
You really don't know what you are talking about.
Often wrong but never in doubt wrote:
agip wrote:
I'm telling you, black voters love Biden. They see him as a loyal Obama guy, as a good if silly grandpa, as a guy who can win the election and stop the right wing. I think you are underestimating the appeal of Biden to AA voters.
Young voters, including young minority voters do not like TRUMP.
Fixed that 4U.
You have no clue what you are tasking about. Young voters hate Trump, and the GOP.
https://www.cnn.com/2016/04/25/politics/donald-trump-young-voters/index.htmlhttps://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/05/24/trump-is-struggling-connect-young-voters-heres-why/https://www.thedailybeast.com/donald-trump-is-turning-young-voters-off-the-gopand-maybe-foreveragip wrote:
Mining wrote:
No one is going to place mines on the side of a ship like the second picture. They would be much too obvious. And either that ship has palm trees growing on it (upper right), or it is sitting in port.
You really don't know what you are talking about.
I do know what I am talking. You on the other hand are blind.
agip wrote:
you can say that, but the polls are:
Biden 32%
Sanders 17%
Warren 12%
That's a big lead. But sure, it's very early.
Point is, the young/lefty group of Dems gets beat and beat and beat. Sanders got beat badly in 2016. Sanders and Warren are getting beaten badly so far.
Whereas in 2018 a bunch of moderates win their house seats and flipped the house. That was done by moderates, not by lefties.
And in 2008 and 2012 moderate obama won the presidency.
point is, there is very little evidence to look at to say 'hey let's give the lefties a chance in 2020.'
Hillary got beat badly in 2016.
Obama was on the left of Hillary in 2008. He had huge enthusiasm among minorities and young voters.
Gore ran as a moderate in 2000. Kerry ran as a moderate in 2004. Hillary ran as a moderate in 2016. All business-friendly, socially moderate, push no envelope candidates.
What evidence is there to say "let's follow that strategy again?" Hasn't worked since 1992. That was a lifetime ago.
Obama and HRC had the same politics in 2008. Obama won because people like him more, he's a better campaigner, and he had better anti-war bona fides.
HRC won the popular vote by millions and if not for the email and comey's deal she would have won. Plus how America almost never gives the same party a third term in the WH. That 2016 was just a fluke election. A 1 in 3 chance that came up for the underdog. It's not likely to be repeated for a while.
Gore lost because the same party never wins a third term and because of crap ballot design. He won the popular vote.
We could go back and forth for a long time. I'd just point out that the lefties have never done well in America and they aren't likely to do well in 2020. The people who vote in this nation are not very lefty.
The change could be if 20 somethings decide to put down their avocado toast and phones to actually vote in high numbers. That would move the numbers.
Young people don't vote. If you base your whole platform on young voters you lose. This goes for either side.
Hillary lost because of the scandals, because of the Clinton name, because she's a woman and was very unlikeable.
Trump in 2016 was an unknown and many moderate voters were lured in by the idea of a businessman running the show. I could see the logic once you get past the mud he slung.
Alan
Runningart2004 wrote:
Trump in 2016 was an unknown
Alan
What? Earth to Alan...come in Alan
Sure, we can go back and forth a long time. In 2016 I repeatedly told you that Trump was an awful candidate and the only chance he had was if the Dems nominated Hillary. I said she would suffer low turnout and low enthusiasm. She was a historically bad candidate and vulnerable to exactly the sorts of attacks trump was making. You enthusiastically backed Clinton with the same kind of arguments you make for Biden here. (Her pro-war, pro-crime bill, pro-welfare-reform, cozy Wall Street relationships were not going to hurt her. Pretty sure Biden share exactly that profile.)
So keep making the same losing arguments you made last time.
reality checker wrote:
Runningart2004 wrote:
Trump in 2016 was an unknown
Alan
What? Earth to Alan...come in Alan
Fool. What political experience did Trump have in 2016? Answer: zip, zilch, zero.
Flagpole wrote:
agip wrote:
and huckabee sanders finally is leaving the sinking ship.
In theory here we could shed huckabee sanders AND kelly ann conway in the same month.
that would be good. national liars and embarassments.
Sanders is a horrible person and liar just like her boss. She needs to be gone, but it would have been satisfying in a way to see her not get to go out on her own terms.
Flagpole - you keep saying people you don't like are horrible people. I quit coming here because of you. You call everyone a "terrible person" when it is you who is a joke and guaranteed things in the most annoying fashion - things that never happened. Maye you should grow up and I act more mature. I consider you a clown who guaranteed 1000 times things that never happened and still claim that you were right. I will come back MAYBE but only if your clown self leaves. You are a joke flagpole and I have never and never will say it to another person again. But you are a clown.
xPerience wrote:
reality checker wrote:
What? Earth to Alan...come in Alan
Fool. What political experience did Trump have in 2016? Answer: zip, zilch, zero.
the answer is a mix...to right wing people, trump was a very well known commodity. To everyone else, he was a successful businessman and TV star. Like a warren buffet. Which made him more reasonable to elect. 'hey let's give a business guy a chance.' they did not know what a defective and criminal human being trump is.
Trump spent decades getting known in right wing media circles. he was a frequent guest on right wing radio and tv...when he declared his candidacy the right wing talk radio poeple, and the white supremacists and the Nazis knew 100% who he was and why he was running. Clear as a bell.
But sure, the schoolteachers in MI did not know trump would be like this. Which is a good argument for why he will lose. American truly, truly loathes Donald j trump, after spending 2 years getting to know him.
you keep taking a fluke election and making it the only example, while there are multiple other examples, such as the utter lack of success of lefties on the national stage, that you ignore.
Ok, let's have a primary election. Let's see if the loud lefty minority will finally outvote the quiet moderate majority. Hasn't ever happened, but maybe this time.
agip wrote:
you keep taking a fluke election and making it the only example, while there are multiple other examples, such as the utter lack of success of lefties on the national stage, that you ignore.
Ok, let's have a primary election. Let's see if the loud lefty minority will finally outvote the quiet moderate majority. Hasn't ever happened, but maybe this time.
You keep ignoring and excusing your failures.
I am not predicting who is going to win the Democratic primary. I am saying that Biden winning is the worst possible outcome for the general election. It is possible that Biden could even be nominated and win due to Trump's unpopularity. There is just no reason to take that chance.