agip wrote:
I'd say two things:
1) as Alan has pointed out many times, take a look at how far and fast trump's approval ratings have fallen in MI WI PA. It's dramatic. Doubtful Trump can win those states again and without them he is doomed.
2) Dems have shown over the past 2 years that they will crawl over glass to vote against trump and Trumpism. This is new. They were just meh after 8 years of Obama. Now they are p-ed off and will vote. That will get them the 80,000 votes they lost by in 2016.
Just to be devil's advocate here, midterm elections typically go the way of the opposing party, and so 2018 was in line with what was expected even IF the President weren't an unpatriotic serial lying criminal. Granted, it was a bigger win than normal for the opposing party, and the only reason Democrats didn't also take the Senate was just due to the election map that heavily favored Republicans.
Voters in Presidential elections typically DO look at "am I better off today than I was 4 years ago?" For those of us in the stock market, if only looking at that, the answer is yes. Now, it would have gone up about what it has (other than the artificial priming Trump gave it) no matter who was in office, Republican or Democrat, but still, the answer to that question for wealthy invested people is Yes. Will most of the people who voted for Trump be able to answer that way? Not sure. The unemployment rate has improved (though it would have not matter what), but some studies suggest lower-income and non-professional people have not benefited from the "Trump economy".
Since lots of Trumpers were on record saying their taxes had gone down even before that was in effect, I find it entirely believable that people will see what they want to see. Because of that and other reasons, like I have said before, at this point I am not sure Trump can't win again (IF he is eligible). I reserve the right to change my opinion on that as we see who the Democrat nominee is and how the economy is at that point and what other illegal/unethical things Trump does between now and then.