Official LRC President Donald J Trump Thread

Fat hurts wrote:

Rigged for Hillary wrote:

Silver's model was totally wrong for 2016. Cafepress has never been wrong for presidential predictions. I have been referring to POTUS predictions only, not other political offices. Work on your reading comprehension, Fatboy.

Again, you need to learn math.

Silver's success in predicting hundreds of races is far more impressive than Cafepress getting lucky in predicting 5.

Yep we’ve gone over this so many times. First, none of Silver’s predictions are absolute, they are probability based so if at one point they calculated HRC at 70% that doesn’t mean they said Trump could never win. Had he asserted Hillary would win Rigged would have a point. Second, his model rightfully shifted to better odds for Trump as we got closer to the election - that is pretty damn good for an out of sample situation.

Most trumpers are simpletons and would get a headache trying to understanding what it means to assign probabilities to different events.

Norpoth is the true presidential election guru, not Nate Silver. Always remember that.

Trollminator wrote:

Fat hurts wrote:

Again, you need to learn math.

Silver's success in predicting hundreds of races is far more impressive than Cafepress getting lucky in predicting 5.

Yep we’ve gone over this so many times. First, none of Silver’s predictions are absolute, they are probability based so if at one point they calculated HRC at 70% that doesn’t mean they said Trump could never win. Had he asserted Hillary would win Rigged would have a point. Second, his model rightfully shifted to better odds for Trump as we got closer to the election - that is pretty damn good for an out of sample situation.

Most trumpers are simpletons and would get a headache trying to understanding what it means to assign probabilities to different events.

Stop making excuses for Silver. Silver had Hillary at 72% on the morning of Election Day. That is a very high confidence in her winning the race. For you to say otherwise is disingenuous. Silver basically said that Hillary would win and he gets paid for making predictions. Silver had asserted that Hillary would win from day one and he had egg on his face election night.

Rigged for Hillary wrote:

Stop making excuses for Silver. Silver had Hillary at 72% on the morning of Election Day.

^ The desperation is obvious in old man Rigged.

Hillary easily crushed Trump in the popular vote. Only a few states gave tRump the EC win by incredibly narrow margin. Drop Bernie and Jill out of the race and tRump remains a failing "businessman" on Apprentice.

Rigged for Hillary wrote:

Fat hurts wrote:

Excuse me. I believe cafepress only predicted 4. I was giving them too much credit.

BTW, Benjamin Franklin Elementary School in Yorktown Heights, New York has correctly predicted the presidential elections for the last 48 years.

Are you dumb enough to think that these school kids are more reliable than Silver?

If you actually took the time to look into how Cafepress determines their presidential prediction, you wouldn't look so ignorant. They track sales metrics in each state for items promoting the presidential nominees. Every item such as mugs, tee shirts, pens, banners, posters, etc are tabulated daily for all 50 states. Trump merchandise outsold Hillary's in 2016. Obama's outsold McCain's in 2008 and Romney's in 2012. It is all tracked on their website. It has been a 100% correct predictor of presidential elections.

I guess you are dumb enough. Bet you fall for scams a lot too.

72% is not high confidence. Go back to school.

72% is roughly the same odds as rolling the dice and hitting a number other than 7. But 7 comes up a lot.

If you are betting on a 72% probability, make sure you don't bet more than you can afford to lose.

That's great, but popular vote doesn't decide who is elected President. Silver might have as well guessed what the price of gas would be at his local gas pump.

Fat hurts wrote:

Rigged for Hillary wrote:

If you actually took the time to look into how Cafepress determines their presidential prediction, you wouldn't look so ignorant. They track sales metrics in each state for items promoting the presidential nominees. Every item such as mugs, tee shirts, pens, banners, posters, etc are tabulated daily for all 50 states. Trump merchandise outsold Hillary's in 2016. Obama's outsold McCain's in 2008 and Romney's in 2012. It is all tracked on their website. It has been a 100% correct predictor of presidential elections.

I guess you are dumb enough. Bet you fall for scams a lot too.

Ok, let's if you're your still clinging to a Silver prediction over Cafepress and Norpoth during the 2020 election season. We will revisit this around Aug-Sep 2020.

Trumpettes are NOT Americans!

Runningart2004 wrote:

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/the-women-who-accused-trump-of-sexual-misconduct-are-still-trying-to-be-heard_n_5c910ddee4b071a25a874edd?ncid=APPLENEWS00001

So will Trump’s assaults and harassments against over a dozen women ever get traction? Will it finally become a big story in 2020?

Alan

Trump is going to win re-election in a landslide. The democrats are totally out of touch with the American people.

Democrats lose again!!!

Pop Art wrote:

Runningart2004 wrote:

Rigged I’ll give ya $20 if Trump wins in 2020. You game?

Silver had the popular vote % dead on in 2016.

Alan

That's great, but popular vote doesn't decide who is elected President. Silver might have as well guessed what the price of gas would be at his local gas pump.

You are exceptionally ignorant of how narrowly tRump won in 2016.

Democrats lose again wrote:

Trump is going to win re-election in a landslide. The democrats are totally out of touch with the American people.

^ Incredibly desperation.

UR ignorant wrote:

Pop Art wrote:

That's great, but popular vote doesn't decide who is elected President. Silver might have as well guessed what the price of gas would be at his local gas pump.

You are exceptionally ignorant of how narrowly tRump won in 2016.

Yes, because of California you old wuss. When you win one state by over 4 million votes....well, you can do the math. She narrowly won the popular vote. Trump won the E.C. by a larger percent than she did with the popular vote. Of course, that's not very smart of me, because you didn't think it up first, right? Trump won, get a life you ole wuss!

Pookie Washington wrote:

Why does Mr Bone Spurs have such an obsession with the late John McCain?

General Ralph Peters — “John McCain was and in our hearts remains the man Trump could never be. And Trump knows it. It’s a classic case of male fears of inadequacy. He wants to show us all how tough he is. He is not tough. He’s a draft dodger with a big mouth.”

Stats don't lie wrote:

Yes, because of California....

LOOK! SQUIRREL!!!

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trumpers are retarded wrote:

Stats don't lie wrote:

Yes, because of California....

LOOK! SQUIRREL!!!

Trumper stats always lie.

Pookie Washington wrote:

Why does Mr Bone Spurs have such an obsession with the late John McCain?

Insecurity.

One was a man, a tough man who sacrificed for his country.

The other is a vain New Yorker who wears makeup, gets spray tans and is obsessed with his own hair do. An insecure f*ck wit pretending to be tough.

Pookie Washington wrote:

Why does Mr Bone Spurs have such an obsession with the late John McCain?

Because McCain was everything Trump isn’t and all his peers and general public respected him. Trump will never touch that and the ghost of McCain will troll trump until the very end. We are talking about a man child here remember?

case of ... wrote:

Pookie Washington wrote:

Why does Mr Bone Spurs have such an obsession with the late John McCain?

General Ralph Peters — “John McCain was and in our hearts remains the man Trump could never be. And Trump knows it. It’s a classic case of male fears of inadequacy. He wants to show us all how tough he is. He is not tough. He’s a draft dodger with a big mouth.”

https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/19/politics/donald-trump-john-mccain-dead/index.html

Based on this alone how can any self respecting person still support this guy? What kind of man proudly dodges service and then amooenky attacks a war hero?