Can Trump win again if he is eligible to run in 2020? Party favored mentioned in bold below:
Let's look at the keys! Needs 7 to win. Currently Democrats are leading 5 to 4 with the other 4 "unclear". To stave off foolish challenges to me on this, Allan Lichtman DID predict Trump would win, but his keys (if you read his book) actually are a predictor of who wins the popular vote, so he was wrong there. He DID verbally predict Trump would win though, so he personally gets credit for that even though his keys were wrong in what they are supposed to predict.
Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. - Democrats
Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. - Democrats (Bill Weld, R)
Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. - Republicans
Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign. Unclear
Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. Unclear
Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. - Republicans - as of now
Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. - Democrats (There have been no official major changes in national policy)
Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. - Republicans (sustained disgust but not sustained unrest)
Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. - Democrats In this case, the scandal(s) are so big and so over reaching that it is possible that is all that is needed for Democrats to win...no guarantee though.
Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. - Democrats (Major failure with North Korea)
Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. - Democrats (No major success in foreign affairs or military affairs)
Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. - Republicans (Some would say Trump is charismatic...I give this to them)
Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. Unclear (Beto IS charismatic, so if he's the nominee, this one goes to the Democrats)
But...
Mueller is coming.
The clown is done.