Racket wrote:
Trollminator wrote:
At some point if this drags on for too long, it will make more political sense to find a new nominee otherwise the female vote will crush them.
I learned in November 2004 that if anyone can pull defeat from the jaws of victory, it's the Democrats.
George Bush was in a commanding position in 2004. I made tons of money wagering on that race. Democrats never had any reason to believe Kerry would prevail.
That is the only presidential election since 1988 that a Republican has carried the popular vote. Hard to believe, but true. Bush also managed more than 50%.
Bush in 2004 was in the most favorable situational scenario in American politics...an incumbent whose party has been in power only one term. I mention that variable all the time because Donald Trump will enjoy the same thing in 2020. It is so powerful and with so much automatic benefit of a doubt you can basically ignore every other variable. Only Jimmy Carter in 1980 has failed in that situation in more than a century.
As I've mentioned, I laughed at Republicans who thought Clinton would lose in 1996, I laughed at Democrats who thought Bush would lose in 2004, and I laughed at Republicans who thought Obama would fail in 2012. All of them made the mistake of paying attention to day to day developments and relying on their own biases instead of following big picture fundamentals.
Besides, Bush in 2004 had many other factors that pointed to successful re-election. We were at war and the economic indicators were not bad at all. I saved this link from a couple of days prior to election day because it was written by a prominent Democratic strategist Mark Mellman, who was working on the Kerry campaign and desperately trying to pretend Kerry could win, but he was sharp enough to look at the wide scope and list all the reasons it probably would not happen:
https://thehill.com/opinion/columnists/mark-mellman/8545-the-uphill-fight-is-impossible-to-predict-now